---
title: "IM BACK case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "IM BACK ($5.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 53 items with odds, observed 87.38% over 9,666 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [IM BACK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · IM BACK

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $4.37 from 53 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.38% · 9,666 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.58% ±10.24 1,205 openings

7 days · 87.98% ±4.14 7,780 openings

30 days · 87.38% ±3.74 9,666 openings

since tracking started · 87.38% ±3.74 9,666 openings

79.5% 90.5% 101.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back?window=24h) | 1,205 | 90.58% ±10.2 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back?window=7d) | 7,780 | 87.98% ±4.14 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back) | 9,666 | 87.38% ±3.74 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back?window=all) | 9,666 | 87.38% ±3.74 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,672 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,118 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $611 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $214 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $96.31 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.38× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $83.70 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $70.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $54.24 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $53.21 | 0.2% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.55× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $44.80 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $41.56 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $35.40 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $31.79 | 0.2% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $30.97 | 0.1% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.55× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $30.97 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $29.99 | 0.5% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $17.55 | 4.9% | 103 | 118.0 | 0.87× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 161 | $16.85 | 2.4% | 112 | 60.0 | 1.87× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $13.67 | 13.0% | 159 | 402.4 | 0.40× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $10.65 | 4.1% | 125 | 164.4 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 139 | $10.60 | 1.7% | 113 | 69.6 | 1.62× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $9.72 | 6.6% | 160 | 288.2 | 0.56× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $9.69 | 1.8% | 87 | 77.4 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $8.79 | 2.3% | 102 | 112.2 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $8.47 | 1.2% | 93 | 58.0 | 1.60× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 79 | $7.69 | 2.2% | 112 | 121.9 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 70 | $7.50 | 2.5% | 99 | 138.3 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 70 | $7.50 | 2.5% | 93 | 138.3 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $6.65 | 3.5% | 128 | 222.5 | 0.58× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $6.43 | 3.0% | 120 | 197.3 | 0.61× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $6.39 | 1.9% | 128 | 126.7 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $5.59 | 2.0% | 114 | 149.9 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $5.30 | 2.1% | 97 | 166.4 | 0.58× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $5.25 | 7.5% | 305 | 605.5 | 0.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55 | $5.16 | 2.1% | 106 | 176.0 | 0.60× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-well-worn) | 1 in 94 | $4.71 | 1.1% | 109 | 102.5 | 1.06× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $4.36 | 3.3% | 271 | 316.3 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $4.26 | 0.5% | 157 | 48.4 | 3.25× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 74 | $4.05 | 1.2% | 163 | 130.6 | 1.25× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 132 | $3.88 | 0.7% | 172 | 73.5 | 2.34× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $3.00 | 2.6% | 307 | 367.5 | 0.84× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $2.67 | 2.4% | 296 | 384.9 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $2.54 | 0.6% | 204 | 100.6 | 2.03× |
| [P250 \| Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $2.49 | 2.3% | 305 | 395.6 | 0.77× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $2.40 | 2.3% | 317 | 402.4 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $2.22 | 0.6% | 228 | 120.9 | 1.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-well-worn) | 1 in 77 | $2.17 | 0.6% | 232 | 125.7 | 1.85× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $2.07 | 2.1% | 335 | 426.5 | 0.79× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $1.22 | 1.5% | 482 | 527.1 | 0.91× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.10 | 1.1% | 344 | 427.5 | 0.80× |
| [MP9 \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.03 | 1.4% | 529 | 563.9 | 0.94× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.00 | 1.3% | 527 | 570.6 | 0.92× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.97 | 1.3% | 542 | 577.4 | 0.94× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.94 | 1.3% | 483 | 587.1 | 0.82× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/im-back`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $633 126.6x 2026-11-08 23:17 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=im-back)

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $5.00 $1.22 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $5.00 $2.67 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 $3.04 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $0.94 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 $0.98 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $5.00 $2.67 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $5.00 $3.00 0.60x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) [elSimione](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/elSimione) $5.00 $2.07 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) [KYU](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/KYU) $5.00 $5.25 1.05x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 $1.18 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $5.00 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $5.00 | 87.04% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $5.00 | 86.52% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $5.00 | 87.16% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $5.00 | 86.70% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $5.00 | 88.31% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $5.00 | 87.11% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $5.00 | 87.62% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $5.00 | 86.65% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $5.00 | 87.03% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $5.00 | 86.65% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $5.00 | 88.09% | 53 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $5.00 | 87.00% | 53 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $5.00 | 88.00% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $5.00 | 87.39% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $5.00 | 88.31% | 53 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.00 | 88.89% | 53 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% gold 0.0% Ancient 0.0% red 0.1% rare 0.0% restricted 5.9% pink 27.3% uncommon 2.9% classified 2.1% violet 16.9% #d32ce6 1.8% Mythical 6.7% consumer 4.1% blue 4.2% #8847ff 4.4% gray 11.5% Consumer Grade 5.8% grey 6.0% best hit $633 (126.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt