---
title: "IMMORTAL case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "IMMORTAL ($40.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 30 items with odds, observed 85.66% over 3,362 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/immortal
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [IMMORTAL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/immortal)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · IMMORTAL

A case on Key-Drop (STICKER CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/immortal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/immortal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/immortal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/immortal?window=all)

Price · $40.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $35.00 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.66% · 3,362 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.11% ±18.80 477 openings

7 days · 83.66% ±7.74 2,877 openings

30 days · 85.66% ±7.18 3,362 openings

since tracking started · 85.66% ±7.18 3,362 openings

68.5% 88.0% 107.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/immortal?window=24h) | 477 | 88.11% ±18.8 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/immortal?window=7d) | 2,877 | 83.66% ±7.74 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/immortal) | 3,362 | 85.66% ±7.18 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/immortal?window=all) | 3,362 | 85.66% ±7.18 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,362 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| HellRaisers \| Katowice 2014 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-katowice-2014) | 1 in 33,333 | $9,513 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro \| Katowice 2014 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-katowice-2014) | 1 in 14,286 | $6,418 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sticker \| Vox Eminor \| Katowice 2015 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-katowice-2015) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,963 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Sticker \| Team Dignitas \| Cologne 2014 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-cologne-2014) | 1 in 14,286 | $1,032 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Cologne 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-cologne-2014) | 1 in 5,882 | $344 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Sticker \| Cloud9 G2A \| Katowice 2015 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-g2a-katowice-2015) | 1 in 5,263 | $322 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [Sticker \| 3DMAX \| Katowice 2015 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-katowice-2015) | 1 in 4,348 | $257 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Sticker \| Flipsid3 Tactics \| Katowice 2015 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flipsid3-tactics-katowice-2015) | 1 in 3,226 | $186 | 0.2% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.92× |
| [Sticker \| Team Liquid \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 184 | $132 | 2.1% | 6 | 18.3 | 0.33× |
| [Sticker \| Tyloo \| Boston 2018 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tyloo-boston-2018) | 1 in 166 | $119 | 2.1% | 10 | 20.3 | 0.49× |
| [Sticker \| ESL One Cologne 2014 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-esl-one-cologne-2014) | 1 in 150 | $108 | 2.1% | 16 | 22.4 | 0.71× |
| [Sticker \| rox \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rox-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 146 | $105 | 2.1% | 8 | 23.0 | 0.35× |
| [Sticker \| Natus Vincere \| Cologne 2014 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-cologne-2014) | 1 in 142 | $102 | 2.1% | 16 | 23.7 | 0.67× |
| [Sticker \| Team EnVyUs \| Katowice 2015 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-envyus-katowice-2015) | 1 in 27 | $81.52 | 8.6% | 32 | 124.6 | 0.26× |
| [Sticker \| Flipsid3 Tactics \| Boston 2018 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flipsid3-tactics-boston-2018) | 1 in 23 | $68.95 | 8.6% | 47 | 147.4 | 0.32× |
| [Sticker \| Astralis \| Cologne 2016 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-astralis-cologne-2016) | 1 in 34 | $55.75 | 4.7% | 28 | 99.0 | 0.28× |
| [Sticker \| Copenhagen Wolves \| Cologne 2014 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-copenhagen-wolves-cologne-2014) | 1 in 31 | $50.89 | 4.7% | 41 | 108.4 | 0.38× |
| [Sticker \| Counter Logic Gaming \| Cologne 2016 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-counter-logic-gaming-cologne-2016) | 1 in 31 | $50.27 | 4.7% | 37 | 109.7 | 0.34× |
| [Sticker \| Headhunter sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-headhunter) | 1 in 27 | $45.00 | 4.7% | 111 | 122.6 | 0.91× |
| [Sticker \| Ultraviolet Poison Frog sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ultraviolet-poison-frog) | 1 in 18 | $37.19 | 5.9% | 217 | 185.2 | 1.17× |
| [Sticker \| Gambit Gaming \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gambit-gaming-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 18 | $35.17 | 5.7% | 67 | 189.1 | 0.35× |
| [Sticker \| mousesports \| Krakow 2017 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-krakow-2017) | 1 in 17 | $30.50 | 5.2% | 65 | 200.2 | 0.32× |
| [Sticker \| Fnatic \| Cologne 2014 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-cologne-2014) | 1 in 17 | $30.31 | 5.2% | 69 | 200.7 | 0.34× |
| [Sticker \| Keyd Stars \| Katowice 2015 sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keyd-stars-katowice-2015) | 1 in 16 | $28.67 | 5.0% | 205 | 205.2 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| OpTic Gaming \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-optic-gaming-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 16 | $27.59 | 4.9% | 217 | 208.3 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| North \| Boston 2018 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-north-boston-2018) | 1 in 16 | $27.56 | 4.9% | 87 | 208.4 | 0.42× |
| [Sticker \| mousesports \| London 2018 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-london-2018) | 1 in 16 | $27.12 | 4.8% | 68 | 209.8 | 0.32× |
| [Sticker \| Health sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-health) | 1 in 11 | $11.83 | 2.9% | 319 | 292.4 | 1.09× |
| [Sticker \| Move It sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-move-it) | 1 in 11 | $11.37 | 2.9% | 308 | 297.0 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Lucas sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas) | 10.2% | $7.97 | 2.3% | 335 | 342.1 | 0.98× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/immortal`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $40.00 $2,008 50.21x 2026-11-03 19:14 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=immortal)

[Sticker | Ultraviolet Poison Frog sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ultraviolet-poison-frog) [✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9B%93%D1%95%CF%83%D0%B2%CF%83%E2%9B%93%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6) $40.00 $37.19 0.93x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[Sticker | Ultraviolet Poison Frog sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ultraviolet-poison-frog) [✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9B%93%D1%95%CF%83%D0%B2%CF%83%E2%9B%93%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6) $40.00 $37.19 0.93x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[Sticker | Counter Logic Gaming (Foil) | Cologne 2016 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-counter-logic-gaming-foil-cologne-2016) Hidden $40.00 $49.54 1.24x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[Sticker | Health sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-health) Hidden $40.00 $11.95 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[Sticker | Move It sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-move-it) Hidden $40.00 $11.22 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[Sticker | OpTic Gaming | Atlanta 2017 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-optic-gaming-atlanta-2017) [✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9B%93%D1%95%CF%83%D0%B2%CF%83%E2%9B%93%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6) $40.00 $27.59 0.69x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[Sticker | OpTic Gaming | Atlanta 2017 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-optic-gaming-atlanta-2017) [✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9B%93%D1%95%CF%83%D0%B2%CF%83%E2%9B%93%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6) $40.00 $29.40 0.74x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[Sticker | North (Holo) | Boston 2018 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-north-holo-boston-2018) Hidden $40.00 $27.56 0.69x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[Sticker | rox (Holo) | Antwerp 2022 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rox-holo-antwerp-2022) Hidden $40.00 $104 2.59x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[Sticker | Flipsid3 Tactics (Foil) | Boston 2018 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flipsid3-tactics-foil-boston-2018) Hidden $40.00 $68.95 1.72x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $40.00 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $40.00 | 87.72% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $40.00 | 87.71% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $40.00 | 87.84% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $40.00 | 87.78% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $40.00 | 87.81% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $40.00 | 87.74% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $40.00 | 87.88% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $40.00 | 87.82% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $40.00 | 87.99% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $40.00 | 87.86% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $40.00 | 88.00% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $40.00 | 87.64% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $40.00 | 87.76% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $40.00 | 87.65% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $40.00 | 87.94% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $40.00 | 87.99% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed violet 28.9% high 6.3% pink 49.9% blue 14.9% best hit $2,008 (50.21x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt