--- title: "JAINA JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "JAINA JOKER ($442.53) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 88.13% over 673 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jaina-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T21:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [JAINA JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jaina-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · JAINA JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jaina-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jaina-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jaina-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jaina-joker?window=all) Price · $442.53 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 88.13% · 673 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 54 openings · below min 7 days · 548 openings · below min 30 days · 673 openings · below min since tracking started · 673 openings · below min 24.0% 72.0% 120.0% **Small sample.** 673 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jaina-joker?window=24h) | 54 | 71.92% ±47.2 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jaina-joker?window=7d) | 548 | 91.65% ±20.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jaina-joker) | 673 | 88.13% ±17.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jaina-joker?window=all) | 673 | 88.13% ±17.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $456 $5,931 12.99x 2026-11-09 11:13 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $456 $5,931 12.99x 2026-11-09 11:13 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $457 $5,931 12.97x 2026-11-06 10:20 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $451 $5,759 12.76x 2026-11-07 20:25 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [Zilk](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Zilk) $451 $5,759 12.76x 2026-11-07 18:15 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $452 $5,759 12.75x 2026-11-07 08:46 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [v1NCHEN$O7](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/v1NCHEN%24O7) $452 $5,759 12.75x 2026-11-07 04:05 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $452 $5,759 12.75x 2026-11-06 17:21 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $440 $5,557 12.62x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $443 $5,557 12.55x 2026-11-10 07:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=jaina-joker) [★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · gold · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [OjczymLeny](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OjczymLeny) $450 $279 0.62x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · gold · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [OjczymLeny](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OjczymLeny) $440 $283 0.64x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $440 $5,557 12.62x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $440 $25.79 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [MP7 | Smoking Kills weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills) [toyota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/toyota) $450 $9.31 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental) [もも](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%82%E3%82%82) $450 $43.49 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC [P2000 | Panther Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-well-worn) Hidden $442 $3.25 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC [★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $442 $346 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-field-tested) Hidden $442 $1,065 2.41x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC [Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) Hidden $442 $41.52 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $5,931 (12.99x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.13 on average: an expected loss of $11.87 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt