---
title: "JOCASTA case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "JOCASTA ($0.60) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 31 items with odds, observed 70.31% over 14.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jocasta
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [JOCASTA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jocasta)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · JOCASTA

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jocasta?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jocasta?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jocasta) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jocasta?window=all)

Price · $0.60

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.52 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 70.31% · 14.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 20.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.73% ±23.65 1,546 openings

7 days · 69.29% ±12.39 11.4K openings

30 days · 70.31% ±11.33 14.6K openings

since tracking started · 70.31% ±11.33 14.6K openings

56.5% 81.3% 106.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.47% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (58.98% – 81.63%, 14,647 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jocasta?window=24h) | 1,546 | 81.73% ±23.6 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jocasta?window=7d) | 11.4K | 69.29% ±12.4 | −2.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jocasta) | 14.6K | 70.31% ±11.3 | −3.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jocasta?window=all) | 14.6K | 70.31% ±11.3 | −3.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 10,000 | $158 | 3.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $132 | 3.0% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.70× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 3,571 | $54.24 | 2.9% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 3,571 | $54.15 | 2.9% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,857 | $43.82 | 2.9% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,704 | $9.23 | 0.5% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 1,515 | $5.80 | 0.7% | 0 | 9.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $5.29 | 0.8% | 3 | 11.7 | 0.26× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,136 | $5.04 | 0.8% | 2 | 12.9 | 0.15× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $4.80 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,786 | $3.02 | 0.3% | 1 | 8.2 | 0.12× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 356 | $2.58 | 1.4% | 10 | 41.2 | 0.24× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 329 | $2.48 | 1.4% | 4 | 44.6 | 0.09× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $1.65 | 7.9% | 531 | 368.4 | 1.44× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $1.54 | 7.9% | 297 | 394.7 | 0.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $1.37 | 2.4% | 66 | 132.6 | 0.50× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-well-worn) | 1 in 137 | $1.36 | 1.9% | 52 | 106.9 | 0.49× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $1.36 | 2.4% | 48 | 134.6 | 0.36× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) | 1 in 104 | $1.30 | 2.4% | 64 | 141.2 | 0.45× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $1.21 | 2.1% | 57 | 134.9 | 0.42× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $1.19 | 2.2% | 57 | 139.5 | 0.41× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.16 | 7.5% | 293 | 500.7 | 0.59× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $1.15 | 2.8% | 71 | 188.2 | 0.38× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $1.01 | 2.1% | 48 | 162.5 | 0.30× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.80 | 3.0% | 117 | 292.3 | 0.40× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $0.79 | 3.1% | 138 | 299.6 | 0.46× |
| [XM1014 \| Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.65 | 8.5% | 675 | 1008.5 | 0.67× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.60 | 5.8% | 530 | 747.4 | 0.71× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.57 | 7.5% | 224 | 1013.0 | 0.22× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.57 | 7.5% | 277 | 1018.9 | 0.27× |
| [SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) | 52.7% | $0.02 | 2.0% | 9,616 | 7730.5 | 1.24× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/jocasta`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $0.60 $157 261.1x 2026-11-02 23:28 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Tiwi-San](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Tiwi-San) $0.60 $133 221.5x 2026-11-09 14:31 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Tiwi-San](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Tiwi-San) $0.60 $133 221.5x 2026-11-09 14:30 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $0.60 $132 220.1x 2026-11-10 17:59 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $0.60 $57.24 95.40x 2026-11-03 05:31 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $0.60 $53.32 88.87x 2026-11-05 00:37 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $0.60 $53.32 88.87x 2026-11-04 20:11 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) [CعиﺡяλL/](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/C%D8%B9%D0%B8%EF%BA%A1%D1%8F%CE%BBL%2F) $0.60 $53.06 88.43x 2026-11-05 11:23 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) [CعиﺡяλL/](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/C%D8%B9%D0%B8%EF%BA%A1%D1%8F%CE%BBL%2F) $0.60 $53.06 88.43x 2026-11-05 11:21 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $53.05 88.42x 2026-11-03 12:35 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=jocasta)

[SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [legenda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/legenda) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[XM1014 | Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-field-tested) [m0renaje4KT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m0renaje4KT) $0.60 $0.65 1.08x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [legenda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/legenda) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard) [m0renaje4KT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m0renaje4KT) $0.60 $0.57 0.95x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [legenda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/legenda) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [m0renaje4KT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m0renaje4KT) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [Husarz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Husarz) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [Husarz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Husarz) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[XM1014 | Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-field-tested) [Husarz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Husarz) $0.60 $0.65 1.08x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [Husarz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Husarz) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.60 | 87.43% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.60 | 86.39% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.60 | 87.44% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.60 | 86.56% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.60 | 87.69% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.60 | 88.75% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.60 | 86.69% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.60 | 87.45% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.60 | 89.05% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.60 | 89.09% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.60 | 87.94% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.60 | 87.19% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.60 | 86.97% | 31 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.60 | 86.94% | 31 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.60 | 86.86% | 31 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.60 | 87.06% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 2.7% covert 0.1% sunny 0.0% Legendary 0.1% Classified 0.1% #d32ee6 0.1% violet 14.9% Mythical 1.2% #8847ff 9.8% restricted 11.5% uncommon 6.9% gray 52.7% best hit $157 (261.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt