---
title: "JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "JOKER ($39.47) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 37 items with odds, observed 88.30% over 2,582 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/joker)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · JOKER

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/joker?window=all)

Price · $39.47

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $34.54 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.30% · 2,582 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.64% ±16.95 429 openings

7 days · 88.29% ±7.85 2,182 openings

30 days · 88.30% ±7.19 2,582 openings

since tracking started · 88.30% ±7.19 2,582 openings

65.0% 82.5% 100.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/joker?window=24h) | 429 | 82.64% ±17.0 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/joker?window=7d) | 2,182 | 88.29% ±7.85 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/joker) | 2,582 | 88.30% ±7.19 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/joker?window=all) | 2,582 | 88.30% ±7.19 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,582 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,557 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,328 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,178 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $787 | 0.5% | 3 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $688 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $609 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $559 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $556 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $411 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $280 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,667 | $237 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $234 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $214 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.66× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $154 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 526 | $148 | 0.8% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 1 in 476 | $144 | 0.9% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.48× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 435 | $137 | 0.9% | 9 | 5.9 | 1.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $131 | 1.0% | 2 | 6.5 | 0.31× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 156 | $108 | 2.0% | 19 | 16.5 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 147 | $104 | 2.1% | 18 | 17.6 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $104 | 2.4% | 30 | 20.7 | 1.45× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 73 | $101 | 4.0% | 47 | 35.4 | 1.33× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $85.81 | 24.3% | 173 | 252.3 | 0.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $57.86 | 3.5% | 47 | 53.2 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $54.95 | 3.6% | 50 | 59.1 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $54.81 | 3.4% | 57 | 55.0 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $53.32 | 3.5% | 63 | 58.1 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $50.31 | 4.0% | 70 | 70.5 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $43.82 | 4.2% | 68 | 86.0 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 20.3% | $35.91 | 21.1% | 376 | 525.2 | 0.72× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $30.29 | 6.2% | 201 | 182.0 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $28.80 | 3.4% | 85 | 104.3 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-factory-new) | 1 in 208 | $12.18 | 0.2% | 10 | 12.4 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $5.84 | 0.3% | 32 | 40.5 | 0.79× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.74 | 0.4% | 97 | 135.6 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 11.8% | $1.65 | 0.6% | 181 | 305.5 | 0.59× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 20.1% | $1.18 | 0.7% | 379 | 518.2 | 0.73× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/joker`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-battle-scarred) [podsiadlo dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/podsiadlo%20dave) $39.47 $1,178 29.84x 2026-11-08 00:26 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [Shaman](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Shaman) $39.47 $794 20.11x 2026-11-09 15:25 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $39.47 $794 20.11x 2026-11-09 15:10 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $39.47 $748 18.96x 2026-11-07 03:12 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $39.47 $622 15.76x 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=joker)

[M4A1-S | Liquidation weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation) [ゼロツー](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%BC%E3%83%AD%E3%83%84%E3%83%BC) $39.47 $1.85 0.05x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC

[USP-S | Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.47 $30.29 0.77x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.47 $1.13 0.03x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.47 $1.13 0.03x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) Hidden $39.47 $30.92 0.78x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.47 $35.50 0.90x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) [ゼロツー](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%BC%E3%83%AD%E3%83%84%E3%83%BC) $39.47 $1.66 0.04x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC

[USP-S | Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) [ゼロツー](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%BC%E3%83%AD%E3%83%84%E3%83%BC) $39.47 $30.29 0.77x 2026-11-11 10:57 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.47 $44.14 1.12x 2026-11-11 10:57 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.47 $1.13 0.03x 2026-11-11 10:57 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $39.47 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $39.47 | 87.72% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $39.47 | 87.99% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $39.47 | 87.86% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $39.47 | 87.90% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $39.47 | 87.88% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $39.47 | 87.16% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $39.47 | 87.21% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $39.47 | 87.39% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $39.47 | 87.72% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $39.47 | 87.64% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $39.47 | 87.67% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $39.47 | 88.07% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $39.47 | 87.57% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $39.47 | 87.23% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $39.47 | 86.91% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $39.47 | 87.63% | 37 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.47 | 87.16% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 20.1% classified 1.3% rare 4.8% epic 0.0% restricted 39.3% gold 0.1% red 3.0% violet 30.9% Mythical 0.5% best hit $1,178 (29.84x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt