---
title: "JUNGLE WILDS case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "JUNGLE WILDS ($0.25) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 25 items with odds, observed 81.54% over 300K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jungle-wilds
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [JUNGLE WILDS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jungle-wilds)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · JUNGLE WILDS

A case on Key-Drop (WILD CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jungle-wilds?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jungle-wilds?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jungle-wilds) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jungle-wilds?window=all)

Price · $0.25

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.22 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.54% · 300K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 34.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.85% ±0.91 34.5K openings

7 days · 81.61% ±0.37 246K openings

30 days · 81.54% ±0.34 300K openings

since tracking started · 81.54% ±0.34 300K openings

80.5% 84.3% 88.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 86.52% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.21% – 81.88%, 299,926 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jungle-wilds?window=24h) | 34.5K | 82.85% ±0.91 | −9.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jungle-wilds?window=7d) | 246K | 81.61% ±0.37 | −26.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jungle-wilds) | 300K | 81.54% ±0.34 | −29.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/jungle-wilds?window=all) | 300K | 81.54% ±0.34 | −29.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 301K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $19.53 | 0.2% | 3 | 6.0 | 0.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 1 in 33,333 | $13.67 | 0.2% | 1 | 9.0 | 0.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $13.09 | 0.3% | 4 | 15.0 | 0.27× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $5.33 | 0.2% | 20 | 30.1 | 0.67× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $2.85 | 0.1% | 80 | 30.1 | 2.66× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $1.37 | 0.1% | 593 | 60.1 | 9.86× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $0.82 | 5.7% | 5,560 | 4538.8 | 1.22× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $0.80 | 5.7% | 5,238 | 4659.1 | 1.12× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $0.45 | 1.9% | 110 | 2795.4 | 0.04× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.45 | 6.2% | 997 | 9107.7 | 0.11× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.44 | 6.2% | 969 | 9318.1 | 0.10× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-well-worn) | 1 in 89 | $0.41 | 2.1% | 107 | 3366.6 | 0.03× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $0.39 | 2.2% | 2,193 | 3727.3 | 0.59× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.27 | 6.2% | 15,762 | 15209.6 | 1.04× |
| [SSG 08 \| Memorial (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-memorial-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.26 | 6.2% | 10,430 | 15780.7 | 0.66× |
| [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.26 | 6.2% | 23,498 | 15780.7 | 1.49× |
| [MAG-7 \| Foresight (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.24 | 7.1% | 25,367 | 19387.7 | 1.31× |
| [MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.17 | 5.9% | 19,158 | 22904.6 | 0.84× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.17 | 5.9% | 5,385 | 22874.5 | 0.24× |
| [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.15 | 5.5% | 20,137 | 24076.9 | 0.84× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.15 | 5.5% | 39,843 | 24046.8 | 1.66× |
| [Sticker \| Boom Trail sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail) | 1 in 13 | $0.15 | 5.5% | 4,420 | 24046.8 | 0.18× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.14 | 5.3% | 58,625 | 24738.1 | 2.37× |
| [UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.12 | 4.8% | 6,245 | 26301.2 | 0.24× |
| [P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-lifted-spirits-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.11 | 4.6% | 55,168 | 27774.1 | 1.99× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/jungle-wilds`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) [Enoch\_The\_Defiler](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Enoch_The_Defiler) $0.25 $18.23 72.92x 2026-11-09 00:36 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) Hidden $0.25 $17.59 70.36x 2026-11-08 07:34 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) Hidden $0.25 $17.53 70.12x 2026-11-09 21:31 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite) [Pharuk](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pharuk) $0.25 $14.50 58.00x 2026-11-10 11:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite) [Escombro](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Escombro) $0.25 $14.40 57.60x 2026-11-03 05:38 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite) [Veleiro Do Tejo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Veleiro%20Do%20Tejo) $0.25 $14.23 56.92x 2026-11-03 22:24 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite) [no](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/no) $0.25 $14.18 56.72x 2026-11-09 12:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite) [Enoch\_The\_Defiler](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Enoch_The_Defiler) $0.25 $14.18 56.72x 2026-11-09 00:36 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) Hidden $0.25 $13.68 54.72x 2026-11-03 19:21 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) [Veleiro Do Tejo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Veleiro%20Do%20Tejo) $0.25 $13.35 53.40x 2026-11-03 22:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=jungle-wilds)

[MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-minimal-wear) [CELI :)](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CELI%20%3A%29) $0.25 $0.17 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) [Thiagooliver](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Thiagooliver) $0.25 $0.15 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[M4A4 | Poly Mag (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-minimal-wear) [CELI :)](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CELI%20%3A%29) $0.25 $0.17 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) [Thiagooliver](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Thiagooliver) $0.25 $0.12 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-lifted-spirits-minimal-wear) [poganyhaze](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/poganyhaze) $0.25 $0.11 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[M4A4 | Poly Mag (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-minimal-wear) [poganyhaze](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/poganyhaze) $0.25 $0.17 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) [poganyhaze](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/poganyhaze) $0.25 $0.12 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-factory-new) [poganyhaze](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/poganyhaze) $0.25 $0.26 1.04x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[SSG 08 | Memorial (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-memorial-minimal-wear) [poganyhaze](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/poganyhaze) $0.25 $0.26 1.04x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[M4A4 | Poly Mag (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-minimal-wear) [CELI :)](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CELI%20%3A%29) $0.25 $0.17 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.25 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.25 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.25 | 85.87% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.25 | 85.10% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.25 | 85.13% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.25 | 83.98% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.25 | 87.06% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.25 | 88.15% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.25 | 87.05% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.25 | 87.03% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.25 | 86.87% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.25 | 87.15% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.25 | 87.03% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.25 | 87.35% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.25 | 87.38% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.25 | 87.65% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.25 | 81.56% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #eb4b4b 0.0% red 0.0% Legendary 0.0% classified 0.0% pink 0.0% violet 18.0% blue 57.2% Mythical 0.9% Rare 7.6% light blue 8.0% milspec 8.2% best hit $18.23 (72.92x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt