--- title: "KATANA JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "KATANA JOKER ($812.39) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 96.49% over 326 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [KATANA JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · KATANA JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana-joker?window=all) Price · $812.39 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 96.49% · 326 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 28 openings · below min 7 days · 247 openings · below min 30 days · 326 openings · below min since tracking started · 326 openings · below min 28.5% 116.5% 204.5% **Small sample.** 326 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana-joker?window=24h) | 28 | 116.57% ±87.4 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana-joker?window=7d) | 247 | 100.49% ±28.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana-joker) | 326 | 96.49% ±24.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana-joker?window=all) | 326 | 96.49% ±24.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [Kazaya](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kazaya) $808 $8,984 11.12x 2026-11-09 20:22 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [CoinL\_\_\_400Hz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CoinL___400Hz) $808 $8,984 11.12x 2026-11-09 07:43 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [23.andreyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/23.andreyy) $809 $8,984 11.10x 2026-11-06 17:27 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $809 $8,984 11.10x 2026-11-05 15:09 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $809 $8,984 11.10x 2026-11-05 15:09 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [23.andreyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/23.andreyy) $808 $8,946 11.07x 2026-11-06 17:27 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $812 $8,907 10.96x 2026-11-03 14:29 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $798 $8,833 11.07x 2026-11-10 07:27 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [Kazaya](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kazaya) $798 $8,833 11.07x 2026-11-09 20:21 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [imanXTRA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/imanXTRA) $809 $8,809 10.89x 2026-11-03 20:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=katana-joker) [★ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [もも](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%82%E3%82%82) $808 $175 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) Hidden $796 $134 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) Hidden $796 $65.38 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $796 $294 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [P250 | Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) Hidden $796 $7.22 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $796 $8,792 11.05x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [もも](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%82%E3%82%82) $796 $170 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $808 $2,334 2.89x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $808 $175 0.22x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · gold · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $808 $279 0.34x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $8,984 (11.12x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 96.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $96.49 on average: an expected loss of $3.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt