---
title: "KATANA case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "KATANA ($95.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 88 items with odds, observed 85.13% over 4,738 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [KATANA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · KATANA

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana?window=all)

Price · $95.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $83.12 from 88 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.13% · 4,738 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 78.97% ±9.75 777 openings

7 days · 84.17% ±4.59 3,671 openings

30 days · 85.13% ±4.04 4,738 openings

since tracking started · 85.13% ±4.04 4,738 openings

68.5% 79.3% 90.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana?window=24h) | 777 | 78.97% ±9.75 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana?window=7d) | 3,671 | 84.17% ±4.59 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana) | 4,738 | 85.13% ±4.04 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/katana?window=all) | 4,738 | 85.13% ±4.04 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 88 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,738 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $8,792 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $4,123 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,547 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,259 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,199 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $1,105 | 1.2% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 909 | $904 | 1.2% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 625 | $627 | 1.2% | 14 | 7.6 | 1.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $401 | 0.2% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.27× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 385 | $401 | 1.3% | 8 | 12.3 | 0.65× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 135 | $343 | 3.1% | 42 | 35.1 | 1.20× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $297 | 3.1% | 30 | 40.7 | 0.74× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 115 | $294 | 3.1% | 41 | 41.2 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 455 | $287 | 0.8% | 5 | 10.4 | 0.48× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $287 | 1.2% | 17 | 16.6 | 1.03× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · gold · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 111 | $283 | 3.1% | 51 | 42.6 | 1.20× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 357 | $257 | 0.9% | 9 | 13.3 | 0.68× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 101 | $257 | 3.1% | 40 | 46.9 | 0.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 345 | $251 | 0.9% | 11 | 13.7 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $238 | 0.2% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.21× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $213 | 1.2% | 13 | 21.3 | 0.61× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $188 | 2.8% | 38 | 58.8 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 104 | $183 | 2.1% | 28 | 45.5 | 0.62× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $170 | 4.7% | 109 | 108.0 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $165 | 1.5% | 28 | 35.5 | 0.79× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 42 | $163 | 4.7% | 89 | 112.8 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $151 | 2.6% | 50 | 66.8 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 164 | $150 | 1.1% | 19 | 28.9 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 152 | $145 | 1.1% | 26 | 31.3 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 152 | $145 | 1.1% | 26 | 31.3 | 0.83× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $140 | 2.4% | 60 | 66.3 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $139 | 2.5% | 53 | 71.1 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $134 | 1.4% | 31 | 39.8 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 118 | $134 | 1.4% | 27 | 40.3 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 103 | $132 | 1.5% | 21 | 46.0 | 0.46× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $127 | 1.4% | 31 | 44.5 | 0.70× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $124 | 0.7% | 25 | 23.7 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-factory-new) | 1 in 385 | $124 | 0.4% | 5 | 12.3 | 0.41× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $122 | 2.5% | 55 | 79.1 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $120 | 1.5% | 36 | 49.7 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $110 | 3.2% | 76 | 114.2 | 0.67× |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 1 in 128 | $107 | 1.0% | 38 | 37.0 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $104 | 0.7% | 14 | 26.1 | 0.54× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $99.03 | 3.3% | 93 | 132.2 | 0.70× |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 132 | $94.92 | 0.9% | 25 | 36.0 | 0.69× |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-field-tested) | 1 in 152 | $92.37 | 0.7% | 29 | 31.3 | 0.93× |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 152 | $92.14 | 0.7% | 36 | 31.3 | 1.15× |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-well-worn) | 1 in 141 | $87.90 | 0.8% | 37 | 33.6 | 1.10× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 139 | $86.60 | 0.8% | 29 | 34.1 | 0.85× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 132 | $75.18 | 0.7% | 33 | 36.0 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 122 | $70.74 | 0.7% | 29 | 38.9 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $70.17 | 0.7% | 31 | 39.8 | 0.78× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $68.43 | 0.7% | 35 | 40.7 | 0.86× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $66.29 | 0.5% | 20 | 30.8 | 0.65× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $65.38 | 0.7% | 30 | 43.6 | 0.69× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 132 | $62.30 | 0.6% | 20 | 36.0 | 0.56× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 137 | $58.06 | 0.5% | 23 | 34.6 | 0.66× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $57.65 | 0.6% | 31 | 40.3 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 135 | $57.58 | 0.5% | 22 | 35.1 | 0.63× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $56.62 | 0.9% | 48 | 61.6 | 0.78× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 127 | $55.15 | 0.5% | 32 | 37.4 | 0.85× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) | 1 in 110 | $54.83 | 0.6% | 37 | 43.1 | 0.86× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-battle-scarred) | 1 in 109 | $54.27 | 0.6% | 27 | 43.6 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 82 | $53.51 | 0.8% | 46 | 57.8 | 0.80× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $53.17 | 0.5% | 37 | 39.3 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $50.61 | 0.5% | 25 | 42.2 | 0.59× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $49.30 | 0.8% | 69 | 64.9 | 1.06× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $49.03 | 1.2% | 71 | 95.7 | 0.74× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 94 | $46.83 | 0.6% | 31 | 50.2 | 0.62× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $46.36 | 1.2% | 75 | 103.3 | 0.73× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $43.97 | 0.6% | 33 | 54.5 | 0.61× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $41.52 | 1.0% | 82 | 94.8 | 0.87× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 101 | $38.58 | 0.5% | 30 | 46.9 | 0.64× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 71 | $38.15 | 0.6% | 49 | 66.8 | 0.73× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-well-worn) | 1 in 97 | $37.40 | 0.5% | 44 | 48.8 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $36.15 | 0.5% | 39 | 51.2 | 0.76× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $32.06 | 0.5% | 32 | 60.6 | 0.53× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $26.09 | 0.3% | 34 | 43.6 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 132 | $24.87 | 0.2% | 17 | 36.0 | 0.47× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $24.16 | 0.3% | 39 | 41.2 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 1 in 62 | $17.41 | 0.3% | 53 | 76.8 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $16.53 | 0.3% | 69 | 82.9 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $15.22 | 0.4% | 62 | 92.9 | 0.67× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $12.10 | 0.3% | 80 | 108.0 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $10.03 | 0.3% | 97 | 128.4 | 0.76× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $7.22 | 0.4% | 183 | 222.7 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $6.74 | 0.4% | 171 | 223.6 | 0.76× |
| [Sticker \| Leaving The Station sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-leaving-the-station) | 1 in 10 | $5.77 | 0.7% | 514 | 456.3 | 1.13× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/katana`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $95.00 $2,364 24.88x 2026-11-07 00:07 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $95.00 $2,333 24.56x 2026-11-09 17:31 UTC

[★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) [@oldschoolfps](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%40oldschoolfps) $95.00 $1,172 12.33x 2026-11-04 02:06 UTC

[★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) [@oldschoolfps](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%40oldschoolfps) $95.00 $1,172 12.33x 2026-11-04 02:04 UTC

[★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $95.00 $1,171 12.33x 2026-11-03 07:32 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $95.00 $914 9.63x 2026-11-02 23:47 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $95.00 $908 9.56x 2026-11-10 19:09 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $95.00 $814 8.57x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $95.00 $639 6.72x 2026-11-04 01:56 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [INODORO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/INODORO) $95.00 $639 6.72x 2026-11-02 23:19 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=katana)

[★ Huntsman Knife | Lore knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore) [⪨88????????????????????????⪩](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%AA%A888%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%E2%AA%A9) $95.00 $113 1.19x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC

[Sticker | Leaving The Station sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-leaving-the-station) [⪨88????????????????????????⪩](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%AA%A888%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%E2%AA%A9) $95.00 $5.77 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · gold · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [⪨88????????????????????????⪩](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%AA%A888%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%E2%AA%A9) $95.00 $283 2.98x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC

[Sticker | Leaving The Station sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-leaving-the-station) [⪨88????????????????????????⪩](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%AA%A888%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%E2%AA%A9) $95.00 $5.77 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [⪨88????????????????????????⪩](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%AA%A888%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%E2%AA%A9) $95.00 $170 1.79x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[AK-47 | Bloodsport weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport) [⪨88????????????????????????⪩](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%AA%A888%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%E2%AA%A9) $95.00 $164 1.73x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Lore knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore) [⪨88????????????????????????⪩](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%AA%A888%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%E2%AA%A9) $95.00 $113 1.19x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh) [⪨88????????????????????????⪩](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%AA%A888%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%E2%AA%A9) $95.00 $47.64 0.50x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[Sticker | Leaving The Station sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-leaving-the-station) [⪨88????????????????????????⪩](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%AA%A888%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%E2%AA%A9) $95.00 $5.77 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) Hidden $95.00 $6.74 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $95.00 | 87.50% | 88 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $95.00 | 87.50% | 88 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $95.00 | 87.68% | 88 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $95.00 | 87.48% | 88 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $95.00 | 87.58% | 88 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $95.00 | 87.40% | 88 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $95.00 | 87.60% | 88 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $95.00 | 87.74% | 88 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $95.00 | 87.49% | 88 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $95.00 | 87.58% | 88 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $95.00 | 87.59% | 88 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $95.00 | 87.48% | 88 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $95.00 | 87.52% | 88 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $95.00 | 87.57% | 88 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $95.00 | 87.74% | 88 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $95.00 | 87.33% | 88 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $95.00 | 87.48% | 88 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $95.00 | 87.60% | 88 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 45.6% legendary 0.0% classified 6.3% extraordinary 1.6% gold 6.7% rare 0.3% red 9.9% uncommon 1.6% Ancient 2.4% Legendary 0.8% pink 15.3% violet 9.6% best hit $2,364 (24.88x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt