--- title: "KNIVES JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "KNIVES JOKER ($487.70) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 93.07% over 342 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T18:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [KNIVES JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · KNIVES JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives-joker?window=all) Price · $487.70 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 93.07% · 342 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 157 openings · below min 7 days · 313 openings · below min 30 days · 342 openings · below min since tracking started · 342 openings · below min 81.5% 100.0% 118.5% **Small sample.** 342 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives-joker?window=24h) | 157 | 102.01% ±15.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives-joker?window=7d) | 313 | 93.88% ±11.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives-joker) | 342 | 93.07% ±11.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives-joker?window=all) | 342 | 93.07% ±11.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $488 $2,390 4.90x 2026-11-04 14:14 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $486 $2,380 4.90x 2026-11-05 03:07 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $486 $2,380 4.90x 2026-11-05 03:07 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $480 $2,360 4.91x 2026-11-07 22:16 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $480 $2,360 4.91x 2026-11-07 22:09 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $475 $2,256 4.75x 2026-11-11 02:29 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $475 $2,256 4.75x 2026-11-11 02:17 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $475 $2,256 4.75x 2026-11-11 02:15 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $475 $2,256 4.75x 2026-11-10 18:04 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $486 $1,494 3.07x 2026-11-07 22:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=knives-joker) [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $475 $629 1.32x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $475 $626 1.32x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $475 $343 0.72x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife) Hidden $475 $252 0.53x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $475 $343 0.72x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $475 $168 0.35x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $475 $389 0.82x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Deivid](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Deivid) $475 $89.30 0.19x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Deivid](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Deivid) $475 $1,215 2.56x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Deivid](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Deivid) $475 $89.42 0.19x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,390 (4.90x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.07 on average: an expected loss of $6.93 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt