---
title: "KNIVES case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "KNIVES ($170.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 53 items with odds, observed 82.94% over 1,149 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [KNIVES](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · KNIVES

A case on Key-Drop (WEAPON CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives?window=all)

Price · $170.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $148.75 from 53 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.94% · 1,149 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.04% ±9.07 298 openings

7 days · 81.93% ±4.98 929 openings

30 days · 82.94% ±4.48 1,149 openings

since tracking started · 82.94% ±4.48 1,149 openings

76.5% 87.3% 98.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.85% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.47% – 87.42%, 1,149 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives?window=24h) | 298 | 88.04% ±9.07 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives?window=7d) | 929 | 81.93% ±4.98 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives) | 1,149 | 82.94% ±4.48 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/knives?window=all) | 1,149 | 82.94% ±4.48 | −2.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,149 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,256 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,445 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,328 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,215 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,072 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $806 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $702 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $688 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 56 | $629 | 7.6% | 8 | 20.7 | 0.39× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 53 | $607 | 7.6% | 15 | 21.5 | 0.70× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 116 | $423 | 2.4% | 18 | 9.9 | 1.82× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 323 | $414 | 0.9% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 108 | $393 | 2.5% | 8 | 10.7 | 0.75× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 92 | $336 | 2.5% | 10 | 12.5 | 0.80× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 208 | $336 | 1.1% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.09× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 85 | $312 | 2.5% | 15 | 13.4 | 1.12× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife) | 1 in 71 | $261 | 2.5% | 25 | 16.1 | 1.55× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 71 | $260 | 2.5% | 21 | 16.2 | 1.30× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 70 | $258 | 2.5% | 18 | 16.3 | 1.10× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 17 | $237 | 9.5% | 73 | 68.4 | 1.07× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $173 | 9.5% | 59 | 93.8 | 0.63× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 26 | $168 | 4.4% | 46 | 44.5 | 1.03× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $147 | 3.9% | 37 | 45.2 | 0.82× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $133 | 3.7% | 53 | 47.0 | 1.13× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $123 | 3.5% | 48 | 48.4 | 0.99× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $116 | 1.5% | 9 | 22.8 | 0.40× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $110 | 1.0% | 18 | 15.3 | 1.18× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $101 | 3.1% | 32 | 52.4 | 0.61× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $101 | 1.4% | 22 | 24.4 | 0.90× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $98.84 | 1.7% | 17 | 28.6 | 0.59× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $94.63 | 1.0% | 16 | 18.7 | 0.85× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $93.67 | 1.0% | 16 | 19.0 | 0.84× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $89.30 | 2.9% | 52 | 55.2 | 0.94× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $89.18 | 1.1% | 17 | 21.9 | 0.77× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $87.13 | 1.5% | 28 | 29.9 | 0.94× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $85.81 | 0.6% | 6 | 12.4 | 0.48× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 85 | $80.39 | 0.6% | 9 | 13.6 | 0.66× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $70.44 | 0.7% | 12 | 16.3 | 0.74× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $68.86 | 0.7% | 5 | 16.8 | 0.30× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $63.46 | 0.5% | 8 | 13.9 | 0.58× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $62.17 | 0.7% | 20 | 19.9 | 1.01× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 73 | $58.95 | 0.5% | 14 | 15.7 | 0.89× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $58.94 | 1.4% | 36 | 39.2 | 0.92× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $58.72 | 0.5% | 8 | 15.9 | 0.50× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $58.20 | 0.7% | 24 | 21.8 | 1.10× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $56.93 | 0.6% | 16 | 16.5 | 0.97× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $54.87 | 0.8% | 19 | 23.7 | 0.80× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $54.50 | 0.5% | 9 | 17.2 | 0.52× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $54.01 | 0.6% | 9 | 17.8 | 0.51× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $53.61 | 0.6% | 13 | 17.7 | 0.73× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $53.59 | 0.6% | 6 | 17.7 | 0.34× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $51.07 | 1.0% | 17 | 34.0 | 0.50× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $49.85 | 1.0% | 22 | 33.6 | 0.66× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/knives`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $170 $1,325 7.79x 2026-11-10 14:18 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $170 $813 4.78x 2026-11-10 14:18 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $170 $635 3.74x 2026-11-08 04:45 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Hulvik](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hulvik) $170 $631 3.71x 2026-11-03 22:06 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [El Presidente](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/El%20Presidente) $170 $631 3.71x 2026-11-03 21:01 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $170 $631 3.71x 2026-11-03 20:00 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $170 $629 3.70x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Rezzz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Rezzz) $170 $629 3.70x 2026-11-05 19:11 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $170 $626 3.68x 2026-11-10 14:18 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $170 $626 3.68x 2026-11-10 14:18 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=knives)

[★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) [ZevkLast\`iN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZevkLast%60iN) $170 $336 1.98x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat) [fer\_otake](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/fer_otake) $170 $55.89 0.33x 2026-11-11 07:48 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [fer\_otake](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/fer_otake) $170 $168 0.99x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat) [fer\_otake](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/fer_otake) $170 $55.89 0.33x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [fer\_otake](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/fer_otake) $170 $607 3.57x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC

[★ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-blue-steel) [fer\_otake](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/fer_otake) $170 $93.21 0.55x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel) [fer\_otake](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/fer_otake) $170 $75.50 0.44x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [fer\_otake](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/fer_otake) $170 $168 0.99x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Autotronic knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic) [fer\_otake](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/fer_otake) $170 $375 2.20x 2026-11-11 07:46 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh) [fer\_otake](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/fer_otake) $170 $50.46 0.30x 2026-11-11 07:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $170 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $170 | 87.84% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $170 | 87.92% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $170 | 88.02% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $170 | 87.59% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $170 | 87.88% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $170 | 87.95% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $170 | 87.98% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $170 | 87.94% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $170 | 87.65% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $170 | 87.77% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $170 | 87.89% | 53 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $170 | 88.00% | 53 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $170 | 87.68% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $170 | 87.94% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $170 | 87.76% | 53 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $170 | 87.59% | 53 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 65.8% epic 0.1% gold 32.6% Immortal 1.5% best hit $1,325 (7.79x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt