--- title: "LAST PICNIC JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "LAST PICNIC JOKER ($409.16) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 91.17% over 1,915 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T23:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [LAST PICNIC JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · LAST PICNIC JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic-joker?window=all) Price · $409.16 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 91.17% · 1,915 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 589 openings · below min 7 days · 91.17% ±6.84 1,915 openings 30 days · 91.17% ±6.84 1,915 openings since tracking started · 91.17% ±6.84 1,915 openings 73.0% 85.8% 98.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic-joker?window=24h) | 589 | 85.59% ±12.0 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic-joker?window=7d) | 1,915 | 91.17% ±6.84 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic-joker) | 1,915 | 91.17% ±6.84 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic-joker?window=all) | 1,915 | 91.17% ±6.84 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Solo Francoes](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Solo%20Francoes) $409 $2,210 5.40x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Solo Francoes](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Solo%20Francoes) $409 $2,210 5.40x 2026-11-11 22:34 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Solo Francoes](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Solo%20Francoes) $409 $2,210 5.40x 2026-11-11 22:34 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Solo Francoes](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Solo%20Francoes) $409 $2,210 5.40x 2026-11-11 22:32 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Solo Francoes](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Solo%20Francoes) $409 $2,210 5.40x 2026-11-11 22:31 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $409 $2,210 5.40x 2026-11-11 20:59 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $409 $2,210 5.40x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $409 $2,210 5.40x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [80k$ - CODE: SAJUCSGO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/80k%24%20-%20CODE%3A%20SAJUCSGO) $409 $2,210 5.40x 2026-11-10 23:25 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [flipin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/flipin) $409 $2,210 5.40x 2026-11-10 19:36 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=last-picnic-joker) [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Solo Francoes](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Solo%20Francoes) $409 $153 0.37x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC [UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [Solo Francoes](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Solo%20Francoes) $409 $20.40 0.05x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC [P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) [Solo Francoes](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Solo%20Francoes) $409 $18.38 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Solo Francoes](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Solo%20Francoes) $409 $2,210 5.40x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC [FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) [Solo Francoes](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Solo%20Francoes) $409 $84.05 0.21x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) [Solo Francoes](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Solo%20Francoes) $409 $14.03 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Solo Francoes](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Solo%20Francoes) $409 $1,646 4.02x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov) [Solo Francoes](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Solo%20Francoes) $409 $52.99 0.13x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC [XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) Hidden $407 $12.08 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC [Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-factory-new) Hidden $407 $11.97 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,210 (5.40x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.17 on average: an expected loss of $8.83 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt