---
title: "LAST PICNIC case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "LAST PICNIC ($20.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 34 items with odds, observed 86.92% over 41.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [LAST PICNIC](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · LAST PICNIC

A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic?window=all)

Price · $20.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $17.50 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.92% · 41.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.47% ±2.01 16.4K openings

7 days · 86.92% ±1.27 41.1K openings

30 days · 86.92% ±1.27 41.1K openings

since tracking started · 86.92% ±1.27 41.1K openings

83.0% 86.0% 89.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic?window=24h) | 16.4K | 85.47% ±2.01 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic?window=7d) | 41.1K | 86.92% ±1.27 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic) | 41.1K | 86.92% ±1.27 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/last-picnic?window=all) | 41.1K | 86.92% ±1.27 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 50,000 | $2,204 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,708 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,431 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Minimal Wear) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,109 | 0.6% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $602 | 0.7% | 12 | 8.9 | 1.35× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Blackbook (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-blackbook-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $322 | 0.6% | 21 | 13.3 | 1.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $216 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $207 | 0.1% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.45× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $161 | 0.1% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.12× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,250 | $150 | 0.7% | 44 | 35.6 | 1.24× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $90.81 | 0.2% | 15 | 17.8 | 0.84× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 556 | $82.70 | 0.9% | 78 | 80.1 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $82.41 | 0.2% | 13 | 22.2 | 0.58× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $81.19 | 0.2% | 14 | 22.2 | 0.63× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,667 | $70.89 | 0.2% | 13 | 26.7 | 0.49× |
| [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 102 | $68.60 | 3.8% | 285 | 436.0 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 244 | $53.67 | 1.3% | 273 | 182.4 | 1.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 238 | $52.98 | 1.3% | 206 | 186.9 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 233 | $52.77 | 1.3% | 308 | 191.3 | 1.61× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $46.27 | 10.7% | 1,579 | 1802.0 | 0.88× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $40.63 | 5.3% | 576 | 1023.3 | 0.56× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $40.51 | 5.4% | 593 | 1032.2 | 0.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $27.68 | 1.9% | 366 | 529.5 | 0.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $22.77 | 2.3% | 526 | 778.6 | 0.68× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $22.76 | 6.5% | 2,230 | 2224.7 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $22.23 | 2.3% | 557 | 818.7 | 0.68× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $20.40 | 6.5% | 2,491 | 2482.7 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $18.20 | 10.2% | 4,284 | 4347.0 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 11.1% | $13.38 | 8.5% | 4,857 | 4943.2 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 11.6% | $12.08 | 8.0% | 5,121 | 5147.8 | 0.99× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $12.05 | 3.6% | 1,608 | 2340.3 | 0.69× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $10.03 | 3.9% | 1,953 | 3025.5 | 0.65× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 14.1% | $7.31 | 5.9% | 6,432 | 6291.3 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) | 14.5% | $6.90 | 5.7% | 6,692 | 6460.4 | 1.04× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/last-picnic`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $20.00 $1,708 85.38x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $20.00 $1,434 71.72x 2026-11-10 15:44 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Minimal Wear) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-minimal-wear) [PaeM](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PaeM) $20.00 $1,120 55.99x 2026-11-10 15:58 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Minimal Wear) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-minimal-wear) [PaeM](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PaeM) $20.00 $1,120 55.99x 2026-11-10 15:58 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Minimal Wear) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-minimal-wear) [uchiha\_sasuke](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/uchiha_sasuke) $20.00 $1,120 55.99x 2026-11-10 07:11 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Minimal Wear) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.00 $1,120 55.99x 2026-11-09 18:46 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Minimal Wear) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.00 $1,109 55.43x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [Tri](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Tri) $20.00 $619 30.95x 2026-11-09 14:50 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [Tri](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Tri) $20.00 $619 30.95x 2026-11-09 14:49 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [kOUKi-](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kOUKi-) $20.00 $619 30.95x 2026-11-09 10:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=last-picnic)

[M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch) [Apxcalypse.](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Apxcalypse.) $20.00 $23.78 1.19x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC

[Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) [-melo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/-melo) $20.00 $6.90 0.35x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) [Subaru](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Subaru) $20.00 $46.27 2.31x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) [-melo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/-melo) $20.00 $22.76 1.14x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[UMP-45 | Day Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-field-tested) [-melo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/-melo) $20.00 $68.60 3.43x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) [HainCostok](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/HainCostok) $20.00 $6.90 0.35x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [-melo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/-melo) $20.00 $20.40 1.02x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) [HainCostok](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/HainCostok) $20.00 $22.76 1.14x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) [-melo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/-melo) $20.00 $22.76 1.14x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $12.08 0.60x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $20.00 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $20.00 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $20.00 | 87.94% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $20.00 | 87.90% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $20.00 | 87.98% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.5% Immortal 0.0% rare 0.0% red 2.4% blue 52.5% milspec 1.0% consumer 4.0% Ancient 2.3% pink 2.9% violet 25.9% classified 1.8% mil spec 5.6% best hit $1,708 (85.38x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt