---
title: "LAZURE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "LAZURE ($1.50) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 23 items with odds, observed 89.59% over 8,535 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lazure
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [LAZURE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lazure)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · LAZURE

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lazure?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lazure?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lazure) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lazure?window=all)

Price · $1.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $1.31 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.59% · 8,535 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.31% ±7.71 1,245 openings

7 days · 89.83% ±2.71 7,424 openings

30 days · 89.59% ±2.47 8,535 openings

since tracking started · 89.59% ±2.47 8,535 openings

82.0% 90.3% 98.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lazure?window=24h) | 1,245 | 90.31% ±7.71 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lazure?window=7d) | 7,424 | 89.83% ±2.71 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lazure) | 8,535 | 89.59% ±2.47 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lazure?window=all) | 8,535 | 89.59% ±2.47 | +1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,546 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16,667 | $163 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $92.17 | 0.6% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 1,818 | $14.20 | 0.6% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.43× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 1,562 | $12.38 | 0.6% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.55× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $11.32 | 0.6% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 1,333 | $10.60 | 0.6% | 7 | 6.4 | 1.09× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 1,235 | $9.74 | 0.6% | 5 | 6.9 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $8.77 | 0.6% | 5 | 7.7 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.67 | 17.5% | 219 | 420.0 | 0.52× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $3.71 | 7.5% | 188 | 226.1 | 0.83× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $2.96 | 7.5% | 321 | 283.4 | 1.13× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $2.49 | 2.5% | 462 | 112.0 | 4.12× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $2.45 | 7.5% | 354 | 342.4 | 1.03× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.34 | 7.1% | 582 | 591.5 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $1.24 | 4.5% | 220 | 407.3 | 0.54× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.22 | 6.7% | 556 | 614.1 | 0.91× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1.21 | 6.6% | 549 | 616.2 | 0.89× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.16 | 6.5% | 575 | 626.6 | 0.92× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.01 | 6.0% | 612 | 662.3 | 0.92× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.69 | 4.7% | 708 | 771.4 | 0.92× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 10.7% | $0.45 | 3.7% | 856 | 915.2 | 0.94× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 11.1% | $0.41 | 3.5% | 992 | 949.9 | 1.04× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 11.3% | $0.39 | 3.4% | 878 | 969.1 | 0.91× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/lazure`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Stiletto Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.50 $178 118.5x 2026-11-07 12:55 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) [khzx](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/khzx) $1.50 $88.85 59.23x 2026-11-08 00:21 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) [khzx](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/khzx) $1.50 $88.85 59.23x 2026-11-08 00:20 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.50 $85.95 57.30x 2026-11-08 20:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=lazure)

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $1.50 $0.41 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[P250 | Nevermore weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $1.50 $1.51 1.01x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $1.50 $0.39 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $1.50 $0.41 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[P250 | Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $1.50 $2.70 1.80x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) Hidden $1.50 $2.97 1.98x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) Hidden $1.50 $4.35 2.90x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[UMP-45 | Plastique (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.50 $1.22 0.81x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) Hidden $1.50 $0.45 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-field-tested) Hidden $1.50 $1.01 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.50 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.50 | 87.76% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.50 | 87.72% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.50 | 87.59% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1.50 | 87.81% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.50 | 88.07% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.50 | 87.94% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.50 | 87.77% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.50 | 88.08% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.50 | 88.11% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.50 | 88.44% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.50 | 87.73% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.50 | 88.45% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.50 | 88.35% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.50 | 88.34% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.50 | 88.33% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.50 | 88.29% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.0% classified 0.3% Mythical 11.3% #8847ff 11.2% violet 45.4% restricted 17.7% mil spec 14.1% best hit $178 (118.5x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt