--- title: "LIQUID JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "LIQUID JOKER ($189.11) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 79.39% over 1,060 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T16:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [LIQUID JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · LIQUID JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid-joker?window=all) Price · $189.11 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 79.39% · 1,060 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 125 openings · below min 7 days · 910 openings · below min 30 days · 79.39% ±7.81 1,060 openings since tracking started · 79.39% ±7.81 1,060 openings 70.0% 94.8% 119.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid-joker?window=24h) | 125 | 95.41% ±23.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid-joker?window=7d) | 910 | 79.16% ±8.40 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid-joker) | 1,060 | 79.39% ±7.81 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid-joker?window=all) | 1,060 | 79.39% ±7.81 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [SneakPeak](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SneakPeak) $192 $814 4.24x 2026-11-08 17:26 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [SneakPeak](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SneakPeak) $192 $814 4.24x 2026-11-08 17:26 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [SneakPeak](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SneakPeak) $192 $814 4.24x 2026-11-08 17:23 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [ABSiNTH97](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ABSiNTH97) $192 $814 4.24x 2026-11-08 10:26 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [ABSiNTH97](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ABSiNTH97) $192 $814 4.24x 2026-11-08 10:25 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [SneakPeak](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SneakPeak) $192 $814 4.24x 2026-11-06 18:15 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [SneakPeak](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SneakPeak) $192 $814 4.24x 2026-11-06 18:14 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $190 $814 4.27x 2026-11-06 04:21 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $190 $814 4.27x 2026-11-06 00:01 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [delecoxo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/delecoxo) $192 $814 4.24x 2026-11-05 21:52 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=liquid-joker) [AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) [Eu e o badecudo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Eu%20e%20o%20badecudo) $188 $7.01 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [AWP | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream) [Kscerato da Temu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kscerato%20da%20Temu) $188 $55.10 0.29x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC [AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) Hidden $185 $24.87 0.13x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC [MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-factory-new) Hidden $185 $4.14 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $185 $490 2.65x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC [AWP | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) [Kscerato da Temu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kscerato%20da%20Temu) $185 $54.12 0.29x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) [Gromlin01](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gromlin01) $188 $146 0.78x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) Hidden $185 $0.65 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) Hidden $185 $7.70 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) [Gromlin01](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gromlin01) $185 $137 0.74x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $814 (4.24x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 79.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $79.39 on average: an expected loss of $20.61 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt