---
title: "LIQUID case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "LIQUID ($8.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 80.31% over 9,425 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [LIQUID](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · LIQUID

A case on Key-Drop (BATTLE CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid?window=all)

Price · $8.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $7.00 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.31% · 9,425 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.26% ±13.79 1,413 openings

7 days · 82.47% ±6.19 7,408 openings

30 days · 80.31% ±5.50 9,425 openings

since tracking started · 80.31% ±5.50 9,425 openings

74.0% 90.8% 107.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.50% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (74.81% – 85.81%, 9,425 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid?window=24h) | 1,413 | 93.26% ±13.8 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid?window=7d) | 7,408 | 82.47% ±6.19 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid) | 9,425 | 80.31% ±5.50 | −2.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/liquid?window=all) | 9,425 | 80.31% ±5.50 | −2.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,430 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $787 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.06× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 2,000 | $495 | 3.5% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 238 | $145 | 8.7% | 39 | 39.6 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $86.28 | 8.6% | 59 | 66.0 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 204 | $58.10 | 4.1% | 22 | 46.2 | 0.48× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $52.50 | 4.5% | 42 | 56.6 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 62 | $37.09 | 8.6% | 174 | 152.8 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $23.33 | 14.0% | 85 | 395.1 | 0.22× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 19.7% | $10.77 | 30.3% | 1,373 | 1854.9 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $7.02 | 6.4% | 589 | 601.6 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $6.76 | 2.1% | 132 | 202.7 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $5.81 | 2.3% | 152 | 257.4 | 0.59× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $4.24 | 0.2% | 31 | 33.0 | 0.94× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $1.62 | 0.4% | 99 | 152.8 | 0.65× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.75 | 0.6% | 362 | 524.3 | 0.69× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.60 | 0.7% | 463 | 748.7 | 0.62× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-battle-scarred) | 11.3% | $0.48 | 0.8% | 632 | 1070.3 | 0.59× |
| [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) | 34.2% | $0.44 | 2.1% | 3,265 | 3221.3 | 1.01× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/liquid`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [calvoentabladesurf](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/calvoentabladesurf) $8.00 $812 101.5x 2026-11-08 14:40 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [calvoentabladesurf](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/calvoentabladesurf) $8.00 $812 101.5x 2026-11-08 14:39 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [twitch.tv/beicolaso](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/twitch.tv%2Fbeicolaso) $8.00 $515 64.37x 2026-11-04 20:59 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [twitch.tv/beicolaso](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/twitch.tv%2Fbeicolaso) $8.00 $515 64.37x 2026-11-04 20:58 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [MegA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MegA) $8.00 $495 61.85x 2026-11-10 23:12 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [MegA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MegA) $8.00 $495 61.85x 2026-11-10 23:09 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=liquid)

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight) [TiBo\_R34](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/TiBo_R34) $8.00 $0.69 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) [NoNo\_R34](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NoNo_R34) $8.00 $86.28 10.79x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

[MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) [BSh](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BSh) $8.00 $0.44 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) [ZevkLast\`iN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZevkLast%60iN) $8.00 $0.44 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[AWP | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream) [SAGE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SAGE) $8.00 $55.02 6.88x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight) [SAGE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SAGE) $8.00 $0.69 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge) [SAGE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SAGE) $8.00 $11.83 1.48x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

[MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) [SAGE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SAGE) $8.00 $0.44 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

[MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) [SAGE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SAGE) $8.00 $0.44 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight) [SAGE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SAGE) $8.00 $0.69 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $8.00 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $8.00 | 87.55% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $8.00 | 88.02% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $8.00 | 87.23% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $8.00 | 87.30% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $8.00 | 87.80% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $8.00 | 87.34% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $8.00 | 87.99% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $8.00 | 87.10% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $8.00 | 87.68% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $8.00 | 87.35% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $8.00 | 88.10% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $8.00 | 87.49% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $8.00 | 87.69% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $8.00 | 87.62% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $8.00 | 87.18% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.00 | 87.85% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.5% rare 7.1% Ancient 0.5% red 2.2% Legendary 4.2% pink 24.6% Mythical 0.4% violet 60.6% best hit $812 (101.5x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt