--- title: "LORD case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "LORD ($3.94) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 15 items with odds, observed 81.72% over 7,262 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lord rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [LORD](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lord) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · LORD A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lord?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lord?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lord) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lord?window=all) Price · $3.94 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $3.45 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.72% · 7,262 openings, odds method Variance · 52.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 136 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95.38% ±44.82 1,003 openings 7 days · 84.69% ±17.79 5,984 openings 30 days · 81.72% ±16.20 7,262 openings since tracking started · 81.72% ±16.20 7,262 openings 50.0% 95.5% 141.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lord?window=24h) | 1,003 | 95.38% ±44.8 | +0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lord?window=7d) | 5,984 | 84.69% ±17.8 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lord) | 7,262 | 81.72% ±16.2 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lord?window=all) | 7,262 | 81.72% ±16.2 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,267 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,125 | $783 | 7.3% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.29× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,381 | $588 | 7.2% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,961 | $481 | 7.1% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.62× | | [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,786 | $441 | 7.2% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.25× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,333 | $327 | 7.1% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.92× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 855 | $209 | 7.1% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.71× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 606 | $147 | 7.0% | 16 | 12.0 | 1.33× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 503 | $122 | 7.0% | 14 | 14.5 | 0.97× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 408 | $98.84 | 7.0% | 20 | 17.8 | 1.12× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 294 | $71.39 | 7.0% | 28 | 24.7 | 1.13× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 233 | $56.31 | 7.0% | 23 | 31.2 | 0.74× | | [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 146 | $35.40 | 7.0% | 66 | 49.6 | 1.33× | | [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 21.9% | $1.28 | 8.1% | 1,265 | 1591.7 | 0.79× | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 26.3% | $0.72 | 5.5% | 1,661 | 1912.3 | 0.87× | | [P2000 \| Red Wing (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-field-tested) | 49.3% | $0.09 | 1.3% | 4,153 | 3586.0 | 1.16× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/lord`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [senseiKeS-\_\`](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/senseiKeS-_%60) $3.94 $797 202.2x 2026-11-06 18:37 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [senseiKeS-\_\`](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/senseiKeS-_%60) $3.94 $797 202.2x 2026-11-06 18:37 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $3.94 $783 198.6x 2026-11-10 18:47 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.94 $494 125.3x 2026-11-05 15:12 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.94 $494 125.3x 2026-11-05 10:08 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.94 $494 125.3x 2026-11-05 09:54 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.94 $491 124.5x 2026-11-03 17:03 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.94 $484 122.9x 2026-11-09 20:06 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.94 $484 122.9x 2026-11-09 18:06 UTC [★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) [shz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/shz) $3.94 $441 111.9x 2026-11-11 03:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=lord) [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) [baran - TimingisALL skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/baran%20-%20TimingisALL%20skins.army) $3.94 $0.71 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) Hidden $3.94 $1.28 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) Hidden $3.94 $0.71 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) Hidden $3.94 $1.28 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-field-tested) [kekitoelcrackpvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kekitoelcrackpvp) $3.94 $0.09 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-field-tested) [Kscerato da Temu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kscerato%20da%20Temu) $3.94 $0.09 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-field-tested) [Kscerato da Temu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kscerato%20da%20Temu) $3.94 $0.09 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) [Kscerato da Temu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kscerato%20da%20Temu) $3.94 $0.72 0.18x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-field-tested) [Kscerato da Temu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kscerato%20da%20Temu) $3.94 $0.09 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-field-tested) [Kscerato da Temu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kscerato%20da%20Temu) $3.94 $0.09 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.94 | 87.50% | 15 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.94 | 87.37% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.94 | 87.42% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.94 | 87.05% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.94 | 87.45% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.94 | 87.85% | 15 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.94 | 87.33% | 15 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.94 | 87.67% | 15 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.94 | 87.67% | 15 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.94 | 87.11% | 15 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.94 | 87.38% | 15 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.94 | 87.88% | 15 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.94 | 87.80% | 15 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.94 | 88.01% | 15 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.94 | 87.34% | 15 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.94 | 87.99% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.94 | 87.31% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.7% legendary 0.0% red 0.7% Mythical 48.2% Rare 49.3% best hit $797 (202.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt