--- title: "LORE JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "LORE JOKER ($1,325.29) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 81.96% over 128 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T06:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [LORE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · LORE JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore-joker?window=all) Price · $1,325.29 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 81.96% · 128 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 56 openings · below min 7 days · 93 openings · below min 30 days · 128 openings · below min since tracking started · 128 openings · below min 45.5% 86.8% 128.0% **Small sample.** 128 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore-joker?window=24h) | 56 | 86.72% ±40.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore-joker?window=7d) | 93 | 79.17% ±26.2 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore-joker) | 128 | 81.96% ±22.7 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore-joker?window=all) | 128 | 81.96% ±22.7 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $1,331 $8,984 6.75x 2026-11-12 05:28 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,325 $8,833 6.67x 2026-11-03 00:45 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,299 $8,753 6.74x 2026-11-12 05:28 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $1,299 $8,753 6.74x 2026-11-12 05:28 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,345 $5,931 4.41x 2026-11-05 20:58 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,299 $5,557 4.28x 2026-11-12 05:28 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,325 $5,401 4.08x 2026-11-03 00:45 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,325 $5,401 4.08x 2026-11-03 00:45 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [USE CODE : NARI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/USE%20CODE%20%3A%20NARI) $1,345 $2,261 1.68x 2026-11-05 20:59 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [USE CODE : NARI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/USE%20CODE%20%3A%20NARI) $1,345 $2,261 1.68x 2026-11-05 20:58 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=lore-joker) [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $1,331 $1,705 1.28x 2026-11-12 05:29 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $1,331 $344 0.26x 2026-11-12 05:29 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $1,331 $235 0.18x 2026-11-12 05:29 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $1,331 $192 0.14x 2026-11-12 05:28 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $1,331 $332 0.25x 2026-11-12 05:28 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $1,331 $8,984 6.75x 2026-11-12 05:28 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $1,331 $648 0.49x 2026-11-12 05:28 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $1,331 $355 0.27x 2026-11-12 05:28 UTC [★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $1,299 $885 0.68x 2026-11-12 05:28 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) Hidden $1,299 $188 0.14x 2026-11-12 05:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $8,984 (6.75x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 82.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $81.96 on average: an expected loss of $18.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt