---
title: "LORE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "LORE ($394.64) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 54 items with odds, observed 87.72% over 3,053 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [LORE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · LORE

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore?window=all)

Price · $394.64

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $345.30 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.72% · 3,053 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.75% ±3.73 1,143 openings

7 days · 88.32% ±2.34 2,769 openings

30 days · 87.72% ±2.23 3,053 openings

since tracking started · 87.72% ±2.23 3,053 openings

82.5% 87.0% 91.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore?window=24h) | 1,143 | 86.75% ±3.73 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore?window=7d) | 2,769 | 88.32% ±2.34 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore) | 3,053 | 87.72% ±2.23 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lore?window=all) | 3,053 | 87.72% ±2.23 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,053 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,833 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,557 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,767 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,232 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,697 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,685 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,614 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 476 | $1,238 | 0.8% | 4 | 6.4 | 0.62× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 455 | $1,124 | 0.7% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.89× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $1,040 | 4.0% | 34 | 40.9 | 0.83× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 119 | $1,014 | 2.5% | 24 | 25.6 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 313 | $1,001 | 0.9% | 6 | 9.8 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 435 | $921 | 0.6% | 1 | 7.0 | 0.14× |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 476 | $909 | 0.6% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 455 | $893 | 0.6% | 3 | 6.7 | 0.45× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 102 | $855 | 2.4% | 26 | 29.9 | 0.87× |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 417 | $839 | 0.6% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.82× |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 385 | $819 | 0.6% | 8 | 7.9 | 1.01× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 556 | $814 | 0.4% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.36× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 96 | $806 | 2.4% | 42 | 31.8 | 1.32× |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 370 | $797 | 0.6% | 5 | 8.2 | 0.61× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 370 | $787 | 0.6% | 4 | 8.2 | 0.49× |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 357 | $786 | 0.6% | 5 | 8.5 | 0.58× |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 345 | $776 | 0.7% | 6 | 8.9 | 0.68× |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $753 | 0.7% | 4 | 9.2 | 0.44× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 303 | $711 | 0.7% | 6 | 10.1 | 0.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 256 | $706 | 0.8% | 11 | 11.9 | 0.92× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 263 | $659 | 0.7% | 8 | 11.6 | 0.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $653 | 2.4% | 45 | 39.1 | 1.15× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 294 | $602 | 0.6% | 10 | 10.4 | 0.96× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $573 | 1.4% | 7 | 26.0 | 0.27× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $542 | 5.6% | 98 | 109.0 | 0.90× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 101 | $532 | 1.5% | 19 | 30.2 | 0.63× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 213 | $523 | 0.7% | 11 | 14.3 | 0.77× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 26 | $513 | 5.6% | 111 | 115.4 | 0.96× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 82 | $478 | 1.7% | 27 | 37.2 | 0.72× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $411 | 2.0% | 33 | 51.3 | 0.64× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $392 | 2.8% | 43 | 74.2 | 0.58× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $365 | 7.6% | 133 | 219.5 | 0.61× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $360 | 8.4% | 65 | 245.5 | 0.26× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $333 | 3.8% | 61 | 119.7 | 0.51× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $312 | 3.8% | 387 | 128.5 | 3.01× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $287 | 2.0% | 69 | 75.1 | 0.92× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $264 | 0.9% | 33 | 35.7 | 0.92× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 85 | $263 | 0.9% | 34 | 36.0 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $253 | 3.5% | 145 | 145.6 | 1.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $193 | 1.5% | 63 | 83.0 | 0.76× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $193 | 3.1% | 187 | 171.3 | 1.09× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $192 | 3.1% | 169 | 171.9 | 0.98× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $182 | 1.6% | 89 | 91.6 | 0.97× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $180 | 3.0% | 192 | 178.6 | 1.08× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 17 | $172 | 3.0% | 187 | 183.5 | 1.02× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $172 | 3.0% | 194 | 183.2 | 1.06× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $157 | 3.1% | 194 | 205.8 | 0.94× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/lore`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $395 $5,557 14.08x 2026-11-09 21:52 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [El chapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/El%20chapo) $395 $2,816 7.14x 2026-11-05 14:42 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [El chapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/El%20chapo) $395 $2,816 7.14x 2026-11-05 14:38 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $395 $1,753 4.44x 2026-11-05 14:20 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) Hidden $395 $1,293 3.28x 2026-11-05 14:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) Hidden $395 $1,269 3.21x 2026-11-05 21:14 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) [Pro MMA Fighter](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pro%20MMA%20Fighter) $395 $1,245 3.15x 2026-11-09 15:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) Hidden $395 $1,238 3.14x 2026-11-10 15:09 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $395 $1,186 3.01x 2026-11-05 21:16 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $395 $1,186 3.01x 2026-11-05 21:14 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=lore)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Polesz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Polesz) $395 $172 0.44x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[AUG | Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-battle-scarred) Hidden $395 $365 0.92x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Polesz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Polesz) $395 $173 0.44x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) [ゼロツー](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%BC%E3%83%AD%E3%83%84%E3%83%BC) $395 $253 0.64x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore) [ゼロツー](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%BC%E3%83%AD%E3%83%84%E3%83%BC) $395 $340 0.86x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) [ゼロツー](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%BC%E3%83%AD%E3%83%84%E3%83%BC) $395 $255 0.65x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $395 $343 0.87x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) Hidden $395 $204 0.52x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC

[AUG | Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) Hidden $395 $591 1.50x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) Hidden $395 $204 0.52x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $395 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $395 | 87.94% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $395 | 87.68% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $395 | 87.73% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $395 | 87.80% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $395 | 87.85% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $395 | 87.89% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $395 | 87.97% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $395 | 87.94% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $395 | 88.03% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $395 | 87.83% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $395 | 88.02% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $395 | 87.94% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $395 | 87.90% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $395 | 87.78% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $395 | 87.94% | 54 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $395 | 87.98% | 54 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 55.5% restricted 0.0% extraordinary 20.0% epic 11.3% gold 6.1% rare 5.9% classified 1.3% best hit $5,557 (14.08x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt