---
title: "LOST FORTUNE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "LOST FORTUNE ($50.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.39% from 43 items with odds, observed 86.56% over 47.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lost-fortune
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:08Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [LOST FORTUNE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lost-fortune)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · LOST FORTUNE

A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lost-fortune?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lost-fortune?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lost-fortune) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lost-fortune?window=all)

Price · $50.00

Advertised RTP · 87.39% · EV $43.69 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.56% · 47.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 86.36% ±1.15 33.9K openings

30 days · 86.56% ±0.97 47.9K openings

since tracking started · 86.56% ±0.97 47.9K openings

84.5% 86.5% 88.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.72% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.59% – 87.53%, 47,937 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lost-fortune?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lost-fortune?window=7d) | 33.9K | 86.36% ±1.15 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lost-fortune) | 47.9K | 86.56% ±0.97 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lost-fortune?window=all) | 47.9K | 86.56% ±0.97 | −2.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $3,614 | 0.2% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.07× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 14,286 | $2,204 | 0.4% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.30× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,659 | 0.4% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,206 | 0.6% | 10 | 9.6 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $786 | 0.5% | 9 | 14.5 | 0.62× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 3,333 | $651 | 0.4% | 20 | 14.5 | 1.38× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $594 | 0.7% | 20 | 24.1 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $417 | 0.1% | 1 | 4.8 | 0.21× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 769 | $320 | 1.0% | 29 | 62.7 | 0.46× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $218 | 0.2% | 9 | 19.3 | 0.47× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 588 | $208 | 0.8% | 85 | 82.0 | 1.04× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 526 | $186 | 0.8% | 79 | 91.7 | 0.86× |
| [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $176 | 0.8% | 224 | 96.5 | 2.32× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 370 | $175 | 1.1% | 42 | 130.2 | 0.32× |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $156 | 3.8% | 605 | 516.2 | 1.17× |
| [SG 553 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $128 | 3.8% | 612 | 627.1 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 196 | $127 | 1.5% | 270 | 246.0 | 1.10× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $113 | 8.3% | 1,170 | 1538.9 | 0.76× |
| [Nova \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $99.49 | 8.2% | 1,320 | 1746.3 | 0.76× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $85.83 | 8.2% | 1,571 | 2021.3 | 0.78× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $73.95 | 3.1% | 681 | 887.6 | 0.77× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $61.09 | 11.8% | 4,880 | 4076.3 | 1.20× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $53.59 | 4.3% | 859 | 1683.6 | 0.51× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $52.28 | 4.4% | 1,335 | 1780.1 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $42.27 | 1.2% | 423 | 588.5 | 0.72× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-minimal-wear) | 1 in 99 | $36.87 | 0.9% | 354 | 487.2 | 0.73× |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $35.05 | 5.6% | 3,262 | 3352.7 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $31.83 | 1.3% | 583 | 878.0 | 0.66× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $30.53 | 1.4% | 686 | 945.5 | 0.73× |
| [G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $29.75 | 5.1% | 3,752 | 3579.4 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $28.51 | 1.1% | 612 | 849.0 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $28.43 | 1.4% | 659 | 1042.0 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 70 | $25.44 | 0.8% | 499 | 685.0 | 0.73× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $20.12 | 1.1% | 820 | 1172.2 | 0.70× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $20.10 | 1.3% | 914 | 1399.0 | 0.65× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $19.79 | 1.1% | 843 | 1172.2 | 0.72× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $19.31 | 1.1% | 847 | 1234.9 | 0.69× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $19.25 | 3.9% | 4,286 | 4264.4 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $18.51 | 0.9% | 762 | 1075.8 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $16.18 | 1.0% | 937 | 1268.7 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $15.67 | 1.0% | 978 | 1336.2 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $15.42 | 1.5% | 1,385 | 2016.4 | 0.69× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-rust-coat-factory-new) | 10.8% | $11.63 | 2.9% | 5,156 | 5209.9 | 0.99× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/lost-fortune`, 9 Nov, 08:09 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 $3,585 71.69x 2026-11-06 15:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [AgroHardrada](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AgroHardrada) $50.00 $3,585 71.69x 2026-11-06 01:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [AgroHardrada](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AgroHardrada) $50.00 $3,585 71.69x 2026-11-06 01:29 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $50.00 $2,242 44.85x 2026-11-03 19:51 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [PutitaBarata](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PutitaBarata) $50.00 $1,661 33.22x 2026-11-07 18:35 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [PutitaBarata](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PutitaBarata) $50.00 $1,661 33.22x 2026-11-07 18:34 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $50.00 $1,661 33.22x 2026-11-05 18:36 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [kOUKi-](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kOUKi-) $50.00 $1,341 26.82x 2026-11-03 11:17 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Kouki-](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kouki-) $50.00 $1,341 26.82x 2026-11-03 11:15 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $50.00 $1,341 26.82x 2026-11-03 10:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=lost-fortune)

[AUG | Lil' Pig (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-well-worn) [M](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/M) $50.00 $35.05 0.70x 2026-11-09 08:45 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4) [M](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/M) $50.00 $19.56 0.39x 2026-11-09 08:45 UTC

[Glock-18 | Snack Attack weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack) [M](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/M) $50.00 $21.79 0.44x 2026-11-09 08:44 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach) [M](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/M) $50.00 $57.21 1.14x 2026-11-09 08:44 UTC

[FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) [twitch.tv/pr1mefpss](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/twitch.tv%2Fpr1mefpss) $50.00 $85.83 1.72x 2026-11-09 08:44 UTC

[G3SG1 | Violet Murano (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-minimal-wear) [twitch.tv/pr1mefpss](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/twitch.tv%2Fpr1mefpss) $50.00 $29.75 0.60x 2026-11-09 08:44 UTC

[AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.00 $42.27 0.85x 2026-11-09 08:43 UTC

[FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) [twitch.tv/pr1mefpss](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/twitch.tv%2Fpr1mefpss) $50.00 $85.83 1.72x 2026-11-09 08:43 UTC

[AWP | Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 $31.83 0.64x 2026-11-09 08:43 UTC

[G3SG1 | Violet Murano (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-minimal-wear) [twitch.tv/pr1mefpss](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/twitch.tv%2Fpr1mefpss) $50.00 $29.75 0.60x 2026-11-09 08:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $50.00 | 87.39% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $50.00 | 87.53% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $50.00 | 88.04% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $50.00 | 87.83% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $50.00 | 87.76% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $50.00 | 87.45% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $50.00 | 87.98% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $50.00 | 87.42% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $50.00 | 87.51% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $50.00 | 87.93% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $50.00 | 87.67% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $50.00 | 87.68% | 43 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $50.00 | 87.87% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 11.5% covert 10.4% rare 0.0% legendary 0.1% pink 23.1% gray 1.3% gold 11.6% blue 15.2% Ancient 1.2% red 5.9% violet 8.8% light blue 10.8% best hit $3,585 (71.69x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.39 on average: an expected loss of $12.61 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt