--- title: "LOTUS JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "LOTUS JOKER ($1,402.10) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 75.11% over 173 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T18:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [LOTUS JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · LOTUS JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus-joker?window=all) Price · $1,402.10 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 75.11% · 173 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 157 openings · below min 30 days · 173 openings · below min since tracking started · 173 openings · below min 7.0% 59.8% 112.5% **Small sample.** 173 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus-joker?window=24h) | 14 | 59.69% ±52.2 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus-joker?window=7d) | 157 | 78.63% ±19.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus-joker) | 173 | 75.11% ±18.4 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus-joker?window=all) | 173 | 75.11% ±18.4 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [USE CODE : NARI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/USE%20CODE%20%3A%20NARI) $1,500 $5,931 3.95x 2026-11-05 20:59 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,500 $5,931 3.95x 2026-11-05 20:58 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,458 $5,749 3.94x 2026-11-09 04:05 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,458 $5,749 3.94x 2026-11-09 04:00 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,458 $5,749 3.94x 2026-11-09 03:59 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,458 $5,749 3.94x 2026-11-09 03:54 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,458 $5,749 3.94x 2026-11-09 03:54 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,458 $5,749 3.94x 2026-11-09 03:54 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,414 $5,557 3.93x 2026-11-11 04:50 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,417 $5,557 3.92x 2026-11-10 09:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=lotus-joker) [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [RemCs7](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RemCs7) $1,458 $192 0.13x 2026-11-11 04:50 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-well-worn) Hidden $1,414 $1,018 0.72x 2026-11-11 04:50 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-well-worn) Hidden $1,414 $1,018 0.72x 2026-11-11 04:50 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,414 $787 0.56x 2026-11-11 04:50 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $1,414 $4.68 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:50 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,414 $787 0.56x 2026-11-11 04:50 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [RemCs7](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RemCs7) $1,414 $192 0.14x 2026-11-11 04:50 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [RemCs7](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RemCs7) $1,458 $192 0.13x 2026-11-11 04:50 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,414 $787 0.56x 2026-11-11 04:50 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-well-worn) Hidden $1,414 $1,018 0.72x 2026-11-11 04:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $5,931 (3.95x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.11 on average: an expected loss of $24.89 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt