--- title: "LOTUS case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "LOTUS ($99.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 6 items with odds, observed 85.60% over 2,052 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [LOTUS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · LOTUS A case on Key-Drop (RISK ZONE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus?window=all) Price · $99.00 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $86.62 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.60% · 2,052 openings, odds method Variance · 9.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 69.70% ±31.07 376 openings 7 days · 83.96% ±14.49 1,817 openings 30 days · 85.60% ±13.58 2,052 openings since tracking started · 85.60% ±13.58 2,052 openings 38.0% 69.8% 101.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus?window=24h) | 376 | 69.70% ±31.1 | −1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus?window=7d) | 1,817 | 83.96% ±14.5 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus) | 2,052 | 85.60% ±13.6 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lotus?window=all) | 2,052 | 85.60% ±13.6 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,052 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $5,557 | 12.8% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.46× | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $1,018 | 21.2% | 24 | 36.9 | 0.65× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $787 | 20.5% | 44 | 46.4 | 0.95× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $192 | 20.8% | 198 | 192.7 | 1.03× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 15.3% | $118 | 20.8% | 293 | 314.0 | 0.93× | | [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 71.0% | $4.68 | 3.8% | 1,487 | 1457.9 | 1.02× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/lotus`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $99.00 $5,931 59.91x 2026-11-05 14:20 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [100B](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/100B) $99.00 $5,749 58.07x 2026-11-08 21:59 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [100B](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/100B) $99.00 $5,749 58.07x 2026-11-08 21:56 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $99.00 $5,557 56.13x 2026-11-10 20:43 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $99.00 $5,401 54.55x 2026-11-05 04:12 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $99.00 $5,401 54.55x 2026-11-04 12:18 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-well-worn) [EgoistNico](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EgoistNico) $99.00 $1,089 11.00x 2026-11-04 13:31 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-well-worn) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $99.00 $1,089 11.00x 2026-11-03 19:21 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-well-worn) Hidden $99.00 $1,089 11.00x 2026-11-03 19:18 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-well-worn) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $99.00 $1,089 11.00x 2026-11-03 19:18 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=lotus) [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [GucciVayne](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GucciVayne) $99.00 $4.68 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [CODE TOROCHO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20TOROCHO) $99.00 $4.68 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $99.00 $4.82 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [CODE TOROCHO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20TOROCHO) $99.00 $4.82 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $99.00 $4.68 0.05x 2026-11-11 03:48 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $99.00 $192 1.94x 2026-11-11 03:48 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $99.00 $4.68 0.05x 2026-11-11 03:48 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $99.00 $4.68 0.05x 2026-11-11 03:48 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $99.00 $4.68 0.05x 2026-11-11 03:48 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $99.00 $4.68 0.05x 2026-11-11 03:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $99.00 | 87.50% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $99.00 | 87.43% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $99.00 | 87.35% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $99.00 | 87.57% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $99.00 | 87.39% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $99.00 | 87.30% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $99.00 | 87.38% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $99.00 | 87.77% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $99.00 | 87.75% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $99.00 | 87.71% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $99.00 | 87.26% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $99.00 | 87.46% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $99.00 | 87.74% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $99.00 | 87.43% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $99.00 | 87.34% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $99.00 | 87.38% | 6 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $99.00 | 87.50% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.3% rare 9.4% gold 15.3% Legendary 71.0% best hit $5,931 (59.91x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt