--- title: "LUCKY CLUCK JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "LUCKY CLUCK JOKER ($12.23) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 85.93% over 2,639 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T23:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [LUCKY CLUCK JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · LUCKY CLUCK JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck-joker?window=all) Price · $12.23 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 85.93% · 2,639 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 197 openings · below min 7 days · 86.72% ±8.99 2,087 openings 30 days · 85.93% ±8.00 2,639 openings since tracking started · 85.93% ±8.00 2,639 openings 56.0% 86.8% 117.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck-joker?window=24h) | 197 | 86.84% ±30.0 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck-joker?window=7d) | 2,087 | 86.72% ±8.99 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck-joker) | 2,639 | 85.93% ±8.00 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck-joker?window=all) | 2,639 | 85.93% ±8.00 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=lucky-cluck-joker) [Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) [THE K1NG](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/THE%20K1NG) $12.35 $0.15 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:40 UTC [Sticker | Lorena sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lorena) [UFUCK](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/UFUCK) $12.35 $0.41 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:55 UTC [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.93 $1.00 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:54 UTC [Sticker | Lorena sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lorena) [UFUCK](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/UFUCK) $11.93 $0.41 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:54 UTC [Sticker | Boom Trail sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail) [Izan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Izan) $12.35 $0.18 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) [Izan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Izan) $12.35 $9.72 0.79x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) [Amo7195](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Amo7195) $12.35 $1.04 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.93 $0.89 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [Sticker | Lorena sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lorena) Hidden $11.93 $0.41 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [Sticker | Lorena sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lorena) Hidden $11.93 $0.41 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.93 on average: an expected loss of $14.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt