---
title: "LUCKY CLUCK case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "LUCKY CLUCK ($0.30) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 25 items with odds, observed 81.90% over 35.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [LUCKY CLUCK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · LUCKY CLUCK

A case on Key-Drop (FARM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck?window=all)

Price · $0.30

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.26 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.90% · 35.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79.97% ±5.53 4,838 openings

7 days · 82.51% ±2.19 29.6K openings

30 days · 81.90% ±2.00 35.5K openings

since tracking started · 81.90% ±2.00 35.5K openings

74.0% 81.5% 89.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.72% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.90% – 83.89%, 35,481 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck?window=24h) | 4,838 | 79.97% ±5.53 | −2.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck?window=7d) | 29.6K | 82.51% ±2.19 | −4.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck) | 35.5K | 81.90% ±2.00 | −5.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-cluck?window=all) | 35.5K | 81.90% ±2.00 | −5.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $114 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $64.31 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $23.44 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $9.69 | 0.4% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.47× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 3,030 | $8.79 | 1.1% | 12 | 11.7 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $6.76 | 1.3% | 10 | 17.8 | 0.56× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 1 in 518 | $2.57 | 1.9% | 9 | 68.6 | 0.13× |
| [MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-petroglyph-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $1.33 | 6.2% | 248 | 436.7 | 0.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $1.12 | 4.3% | 87 | 361.3 | 0.24× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $1.01 | 6.2% | 429 | 574.7 | 0.75× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 168 | $0.79 | 1.8% | 58 | 212.0 | 0.27× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $0.65 | 2.2% | 102 | 313.0 | 0.33× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 107 | $0.63 | 2.2% | 104 | 333.2 | 0.31× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.54 | 6.2% | 1,115 | 1074.7 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Lorena sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lorena) | 1 in 25 | $0.41 | 6.2% | 1,640 | 1415.4 | 1.16× |
| [MAG-7 \| Foresight (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.24 | 7.4% | 2,289 | 2885.0 | 0.79× |
| [P90 \| Teardown (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.24 | 7.4% | 2,273 | 2885.0 | 0.79× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.21 | 6.7% | 2,617 | 2963.2 | 0.88× |
| [MP9 \| Nexus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.18 | 5.9% | 3,084 | 3056.0 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.17 | 5.6% | 3,586 | 3091.2 | 1.16× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.17 | 5.6% | 3,103 | 3091.2 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Boom Trail sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail) | 1 in 11 | $0.15 | 5.1% | 3,270 | 3169.5 | 1.03× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.15 | 5.1% | 3,623 | 3169.5 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.14 | 4.8% | 3,912 | 3213.6 | 1.22× |
| [Sticker \| Evil Geniuses \| 2020 RMR sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-evil-geniuses-2020-rmr) | 1 in 11 | $0.14 | 4.8% | 2,344 | 3213.6 | 0.73× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/lucky-cluck`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) Hidden $0.30 $69.31 231.0x 2026-11-05 04:40 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=lucky-cluck)

[MP9 | Nexus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-minimal-wear) [legenda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/legenda) $0.30 $0.18 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-minimal-wear) [m0renaje4KT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m0renaje4KT) $0.30 $0.17 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) [legenda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/legenda) $0.30 $0.17 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) [m0renaje4KT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m0renaje4KT) $0.30 $0.21 0.70x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-factory-new) [borra\_giestas](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/borra_giestas%EF%A3%BF) $0.30 $0.24 0.80x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[MP9 | Nexus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-minimal-wear) [botvok2013](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/botvok2013) $0.30 $0.18 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) [botvok2013](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/botvok2013) $0.30 $0.21 0.70x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-minimal-wear) [m0renaje4KT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m0renaje4KT) $0.30 $0.17 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[MP9 | Nexus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-minimal-wear) [legenda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/legenda) $0.30 $0.18 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) [legenda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/legenda) $0.30 $0.17 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.30 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.30 | 89.71% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.30 | 88.11% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.30 | 88.12% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.30 | 88.44% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.30 | 88.17% | 25 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.30 | 88.17% | 25 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.30 | 87.33% | 25 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.30 | 88.19% | 25 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.30 | 86.21% | 25 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.30 | 87.34% | 25 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.30 | 86.83% | 25 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.30 | 88.02% | 25 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.30 | 85.08% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.30 | 86.70% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.30 | 86.90% | 25 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.30 | 86.00% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 0.0% violet 24.8% pink 4.1% restricted 0.2% #8847ff 1.0% Restricted 0.6% Mythical 0.9% blue 59.8% light blue 8.7% best hit $69.31 (231.0x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt