--- title: "LUCKY SHOT case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "LUCKY SHOT ($0.80) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 77.33% over 1,043 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-shot rendered: 2026-11-12T04:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [LUCKY SHOT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-shot) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · LUCKY SHOT A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-shot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-shot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-shot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-shot?window=all) Price · $0.80 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 77.33% · 1,043 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 129 openings · below min 7 days · 848 openings · below min 30 days · 77.33% ±4.47 1,043 openings since tracking started · 77.33% ±4.47 1,043 openings 60.5% 71.5% 82.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-shot?window=24h) | 129 | 68.63% ±7.73 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-shot?window=7d) | 848 | 77.56% ±4.45 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-shot) | 1,043 | 77.33% ±4.47 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-shot?window=all) | 1,043 | 77.33% ±4.47 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=lucky-shot) [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [Pull](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pull) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-12 03:56 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [Pull](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pull) $0.80 $0.85 1.06x 2026-11-12 03:56 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [Pengu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pengu) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-12 03:53 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [Pull](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pull) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-12 03:53 UTC [SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) [Pengu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pengu) $0.80 $0.63 0.79x 2026-11-12 03:53 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [Pull](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pull) $0.80 $0.85 1.06x 2026-11-12 03:53 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [Pull](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pull) $0.80 $0.85 1.06x 2026-11-12 03:53 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [Pull](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pull) $0.80 $0.85 1.06x 2026-11-12 03:53 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [Pengu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pengu) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-12 03:53 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [Pengu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pengu) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-12 03:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 77.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $77.33 on average: an expected loss of $22.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt