---
title: "LUCKY SPELL case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "LUCKY SPELL ($5.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.95% from 32 items with odds, observed 84.60% over 163K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-spell
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [LUCKY SPELL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-spell)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · LUCKY SPELL

A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-spell?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-spell?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-spell) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-spell?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 87.95% · EV $4.40 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.60% · 163K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 84.72% ±0.93 117K openings

30 days · 84.60% ±0.80 163K openings

since tracking started · 84.60% ±0.80 163K openings

83.0% 85.8% 88.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.80% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.80% – 85.39%, 162,969 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-spell?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-spell?window=7d) | 117K | 84.72% ±0.93 | −6.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-spell) | 163K | 84.60% ±0.80 | −7.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-spell?window=all) | 163K | 84.60% ±0.80 | −7.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 163K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,056 | 0.5% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $574 | 0.4% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.61× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20,000 | $399 | 0.5% | 5 | 8.2 | 0.61× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $320 | 0.7% | 7 | 16.3 | 0.43× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $152 | 0.7% | 24 | 32.7 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $73.95 | 0.2% | 7 | 16.3 | 0.43× |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $60.01 | 0.3% | 28 | 32.7 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $53.59 | 0.1% | 17 | 16.3 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $52.28 | 0.1% | 12 | 16.3 | 0.73× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $47.91 | 0.3% | 38 | 49.0 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $43.99 | 0.1% | 10 | 16.3 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $43.04 | 0.1% | 15 | 16.3 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $36.57 | 0.1% | 11 | 16.3 | 0.67× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $23.28 | 0.3% | 53 | 81.7 | 0.65× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $22.63 | 0.3% | 46 | 98.1 | 0.47× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 1,667 | $22.08 | 0.3% | 33 | 98.1 | 0.34× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $19.25 | 0.9% | 378 | 326.9 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $13.85 | 7.0% | 3,418 | 3644.5 | 0.94× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $12.10 | 6.1% | 6,092 | 3611.8 | 1.69× |
| [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $9.26 | 6.1% | 7,110 | 4723.1 | 1.51× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $7.50 | 6.1% | 5,291 | 5850.8 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $7.14 | 10.1% | 6,217 | 10198.0 | 0.61× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $5.04 | 10.1% | 7,910 | 14430.8 | 0.55× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $4.92 | 8.1% | 8,570 | 11897.6 | 0.72× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $4.86 | 8.0% | 11,268 | 11897.6 | 0.95× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $4.15 | 3.6% | 4,328 | 6243.0 | 0.69× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $4.03 | 3.6% | 4,340 | 6488.1 | 0.67× |
| [MP9 \| Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $3.44 | 6.6% | 14,904 | 13695.4 | 1.09× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $3.14 | 6.2% | 15,919 | 14169.3 | 1.12× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) | 10.1% | $2.10 | 4.8% | 17,672 | 16571.7 | 1.07× |
| [Sticker \| Cedar Creek sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek) | 11.2% | $1.65 | 4.2% | 20,573 | 18255.0 | 1.13× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Tire (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-tire-factory-new) | 12.8% | $1.19 | 3.5% | 23,811 | 20902.6 | 1.14× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/lucky-spell`, 9 Nov, 08:09 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [NAZARIO\_F9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NAZARIO_F9) $5.00 $1,057 211.3x 2026-11-06 18:37 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 $1,044 208.8x 2026-11-04 01:23 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) [hh =DDDDDDD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/hh%20%3DDDDDDDD) $5.00 $584 116.9x 2026-11-05 23:17 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 $584 116.9x 2026-11-04 18:20 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 $574 114.8x 2026-11-08 03:34 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $5.00 $403 80.70x 2026-11-07 18:14 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $5.00 $403 80.70x 2026-11-07 17:15 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $5.00 $399 79.74x 2026-11-06 19:40 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [RainnBerk](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RainnBerk) $5.00 $395 78.93x 2026-11-05 20:21 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $5.00 $395 78.93x 2026-11-05 05:36 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=lucky-spell)

[XM1014 | Blue Tire (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-tire-factory-new) [andreiJR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/andreiJR1) $5.00 $1.19 0.24x 2026-11-09 09:01 UTC

[Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $2.10 0.42x 2026-11-09 09:00 UTC

[Sticker | Cedar Creek sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek) Hidden $5.00 $1.65 0.33x 2026-11-09 09:00 UTC

[XM1014 | Blue Tire (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-tire-factory-new) [andreiJR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/andreiJR1) $5.00 $1.19 0.24x 2026-11-09 09:00 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-factory-new) [andreiJR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/andreiJR1) $5.00 $4.86 0.97x 2026-11-09 09:00 UTC

[G3SG1 | New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $9.26 1.85x 2026-11-09 09:00 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-factory-new) [andreiJR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/andreiJR1) $5.00 $4.86 0.97x 2026-11-09 09:00 UTC

[P2000 | Panther Camo weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo) [small man](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/small%20man) $5.00 $4.09 0.82x 2026-11-09 09:00 UTC

[P2000 | Panther Camo weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo) [Bolivion](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Bolivion) $5.00 $4.09 0.82x 2026-11-09 09:00 UTC

[P2000 | Panther Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-battle-scarred) [small man](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/small%20man) $5.00 $4.03 0.81x 2026-11-09 08:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $5.00 | 87.95% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $5.00 | 87.96% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $5.00 | 87.98% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $5.00 | 88.18% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $5.00 | 87.98% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $5.00 | 87.87% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $5.00 | 87.88% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $5.00 | 87.73% | 32 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $5.00 | 87.84% | 32 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $5.00 | 88.00% | 32 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $5.00 | 87.41% | 32 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $5.00 | 87.42% | 32 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.00 | 87.61% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% restricted 0.0% gold 0.0% classified 0.1% red 0.0% pink 0.1% violet 31.1% blue 25.1% gray 27.4% blueLight 3.8% light blue 4.0% mil spec 8.4% best hit $1,057 (211.3x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.95 on average: an expected loss of $12.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt