---
title: "LUCKY SSSTRIKE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "LUCKY SSSTRIKE ($80.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 43 items with odds, observed 86.99% over 2,871 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-ssstrike
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [LUCKY SSSTRIKE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-ssstrike)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · LUCKY SSSTRIKE

A case on Key-Drop (VENOM VAULT), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-ssstrike?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-ssstrike?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-ssstrike) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-ssstrike?window=all)

Price · $80.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $70.00 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.99% · 2,871 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.70% ±10.68 378 openings

7 days · 86.97% ±4.40 2,260 openings

30 days · 86.99% ±3.91 2,871 openings

since tracking started · 86.99% ±3.91 2,871 openings

76.5% 87.8% 99.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-ssstrike?window=24h) | 378 | 87.70% ±10.7 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-ssstrike?window=7d) | 2,260 | 86.97% ±4.40 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-ssstrike) | 2,871 | 86.99% ±3.91 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/lucky-ssstrike?window=all) | 2,871 | 86.99% ±3.91 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,871 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $8,792 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 33,333 | $5,330 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 16,667 | $2,803 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,003 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,238 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 14,286 | $994 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $927 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $919 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,692 | $679 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $572 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 204 | $383 | 2.7% | 16 | 14.1 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $283 | 4.2% | 22 | 29.6 | 0.74× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 46 | $234 | 7.2% | 48 | 62.0 | 0.77× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $208 | 7.2% | 75 | 69.8 | 1.08× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 29 | $161 | 7.9% | 108 | 98.5 | 1.10× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $151 | 7.9% | 136 | 104.8 | 1.30× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $124 | 7.9% | 140 | 128.3 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $119 | 14.8% | 193 | 250.4 | 0.77× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $85.00 | 4.8% | 73 | 113.4 | 0.64× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $84.51 | 4.8% | 70 | 114.6 | 0.61× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $78.70 | 1.7% | 33 | 43.4 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $75.26 | 2.3% | 43 | 60.9 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $74.43 | 2.3% | 52 | 61.7 | 0.84× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $70.17 | 1.2% | 19 | 33.6 | 0.57× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $53.51 | 1.3% | 41 | 49.4 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $49.30 | 1.4% | 41 | 55.1 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $48.24 | 0.6% | 21 | 24.1 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $35.50 | 0.7% | 27 | 37.3 | 0.72× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 99 | $35.36 | 0.5% | 21 | 29.0 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $31.60 | 0.7% | 26 | 43.9 | 0.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $30.98 | 0.7% | 33 | 45.4 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $30.92 | 0.7% | 25 | 45.4 | 0.55× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $29.71 | 0.7% | 45 | 47.9 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $29.28 | 0.7% | 35 | 48.8 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $27.50 | 0.7% | 41 | 53.4 | 0.77× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $25.25 | 2.4% | 194 | 189.2 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $22.80 | 0.6% | 46 | 53.7 | 0.86× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $22.62 | 0.6% | 37 | 54.3 | 0.68× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $22.18 | 0.6% | 42 | 55.7 | 0.75× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $21.30 | 2.1% | 204 | 202.7 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $20.40 | 2.1% | 216 | 206.1 | 1.05× |
| [Nova \| Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $18.00 | 1.9% | 220 | 216.8 | 1.01× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $16.43 | 1.8% | 213 | 223.7 | 0.95× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/lucky-ssstrike`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $80.00 $929 11.62x 2026-11-07 04:32 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [Pro MMA Fighter](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pro%20MMA%20Fighter) $80.00 $929 11.61x 2026-11-09 18:35 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [Pro MMA Fighter](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pro%20MMA%20Fighter) $80.00 $929 11.61x 2026-11-09 18:35 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=lucky-ssstrike)

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01) [Subaru](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Subaru) $80.00 $32.10 0.40x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC

[P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) Hidden $80.00 $16.43 0.21x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) [Subaru](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Subaru) $80.00 $31.84 0.40x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [Apxcalypse.](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Apxcalypse.) $80.00 $20.40 0.26x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Freehand knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand) [Apxcalypse.](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Apxcalypse.) $80.00 $83.79 1.05x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Freehand knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand) [Apxcalypse.](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Apxcalypse.) $80.00 $83.79 1.05x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC

[Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) [Turko](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Turko) $80.00 $21.30 0.27x 2026-11-11 17:04 UTC

[Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) [Turko](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Turko) $80.00 $21.36 0.27x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC

[AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) Hidden $80.00 $127 1.58x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) Hidden $80.00 $71.89 0.90x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $80.00 | 87.50% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $80.00 | 87.50% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $80.00 | 87.68% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $80.00 | 87.65% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $80.00 | 87.32% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $80.00 | 87.48% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $80.00 | 87.69% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $80.00 | 87.45% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $80.00 | 87.38% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $80.00 | 87.72% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $80.00 | 87.30% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $80.00 | 87.58% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $80.00 | 87.36% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $80.00 | 87.60% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $80.00 | 87.29% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $80.00 | 87.38% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $80.00 | 87.47% | 43 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $80.00 | 87.40% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 26.7% legendary 0.0% gold 11.6% pink 19.8% red 4.3% classified 9.0% restricted 12.2% violet 1.6% mil spec 7.2% blue 7.5% best hit $929 (11.62x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt