---
title: "LUNA case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "LUNA ($110.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 29 items with odds, observed 87.47% over 884 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/luna
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [LUNA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/luna)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · LUNA

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/luna?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/luna?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/luna) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/luna?window=all)

Price · $110.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $96.25 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.47% · 884 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 47 openings · below min

7 days · 83.93% ±8.20 716 openings

30 days · 87.47% ±7.34 884 openings

since tracking started · 87.47% ±7.34 884 openings

41.5% 74.0% 106.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/luna?window=24h) | 47 | 73.77% ±31.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/luna?window=7d) | 716 | 83.93% ±8.20 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/luna) | 884 | 87.47% ±7.34 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/luna?window=all) | 884 | 87.47% ±7.34 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 884 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,557 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 5,000 | $3,063 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $806 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.89× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 625 | $588 | 1.0% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 625 | $586 | 1.0% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 455 | $423 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 89 | $399 | 4.6% | 3 | 9.9 | 0.30× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 204 | $385 | 2.0% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $336 | 4.6% | 20 | 11.8 | 1.70× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $280 | 2.7% | 11 | 8.1 | 1.35× |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $276 | 4.6% | 10 | 14.3 | 0.70× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $258 | 5.4% | 27 | 17.9 | 1.50× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 45 | $237 | 5.4% | 13 | 19.4 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $222 | 5.4% | 20 | 20.9 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $220 | 5.4% | 23 | 21.0 | 1.09× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 39 | $203 | 5.4% | 28 | 22.7 | 1.23× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10 | $150 | 14.9% | 85 | 84.8 | 1.00× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-field-tested) | 12.2% | $118 | 14.9% | 101 | 107.8 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $104 | 3.9% | 27 | 32.1 | 0.84× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $89.30 | 3.7% | 32 | 35.7 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $60.01 | 3.2% | 43 | 45.3 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $54.95 | 3.1% | 45 | 47.7 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $23.44 | 2.2% | 81 | 79.6 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $16.56 | 0.9% | 39 | 47.1 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $15.31 | 1.0% | 41 | 53.4 | 0.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $7.85 | 0.2% | 17 | 26.8 | 0.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $5.27 | 0.3% | 28 | 50.7 | 0.55× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $5.04 | 0.3% | 45 | 54.5 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $4.68 | 0.3% | 50 | 61.8 | 0.81× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/luna`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $110 $814 7.40x 2026-11-06 17:05 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $110 $814 7.40x 2026-11-06 17:05 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $110 $604 5.49x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=luna)

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus) [hampterinho](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/hampterinho) $110 $5.37 0.05x 2026-11-11 01:59 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $110 $150 1.36x 2026-11-11 01:58 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) Hidden $110 $23.44 0.21x 2026-11-11 01:58 UTC

[M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) Hidden $110 $54.95 0.50x 2026-11-11 01:58 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [hampterinho](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/hampterinho) $110 $4.68 0.04x 2026-11-11 01:58 UTC

[AK-47 | Blue Laminate weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate) [hwng](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/hwng) $110 $15.90 0.14x 2026-11-11 01:08 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [dq](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dq) $110 $258 2.34x 2026-11-11 00:10 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $110 $4.68 0.04x 2026-11-11 00:09 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $110 $203 1.85x 2026-11-11 00:09 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $110 $4.68 0.04x 2026-11-11 00:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $110 | 87.50% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $110 | 87.76% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $110 | 87.45% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $110 | 87.71% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $110 | 87.40% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $110 | 87.26% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $110 | 87.63% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $110 | 87.63% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $110 | 87.32% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $110 | 87.40% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $110 | 87.47% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $110 | 87.49% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $110 | 87.31% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $110 | 87.41% | 29 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $110 | 87.66% | 29 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $110 | 87.97% | 29 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $110 | 87.68% | 29 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $110 | 87.42% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 22.6% legendary 0.2% classified 21.8% gold 2.2% epic 2.4% extraordinary 12.2% red 5.4% restricted 11.4% Classified 9.2% pink 5.7% Legendary 7.0% best hit $814 (7.40x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt