--- title: "M4 JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "M4 JOKER ($66.10) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 84.59% over 1,791 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T17:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [M4 JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · M4 JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4-joker?window=all) Price · $66.10 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 84.59% · 1,791 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 185 openings · below min 7 days · 81.84% ±8.51 1,610 openings 30 days · 84.59% ±8.43 1,791 openings since tracking started · 84.59% ±8.43 1,791 openings 64.5% 100.8% 137.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4-joker?window=24h) | 185 | 100.73% ±35.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4-joker?window=7d) | 1,610 | 81.84% ±8.51 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4-joker) | 1,791 | 84.59% ±8.43 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4-joker?window=all) | 1,791 | 84.59% ±8.43 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) [D. xGuGu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D.%20xGuGu) $65.52 $846 12.91x 2026-11-06 16:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) [D. xGuGu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D.%20xGuGu) $65.52 $846 12.91x 2026-11-06 16:08 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) [D. xGuGu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D.%20xGuGu) $65.52 $846 12.91x 2026-11-06 15:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) [D. xGuGu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D.%20xGuGu) $65.52 $846 12.91x 2026-11-06 15:33 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) [D. xGuGu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D.%20xGuGu) $65.52 $846 12.91x 2026-11-05 18:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) [D. xGuGu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D.%20xGuGu) $65.52 $846 12.91x 2026-11-05 18:39 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) [D. xGuGu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D.%20xGuGu) $65.52 $846 12.91x 2026-11-05 18:09 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) [D. xGuGu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D.%20xGuGu) $65.52 $846 12.91x 2026-11-05 17:57 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) [D. xGuGu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D.%20xGuGu) $66.25 $846 12.76x 2026-11-03 14:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) [D. xGuGu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D.%20xGuGu) $66.25 $846 12.76x 2026-11-03 14:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=m4-joker) [M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $64.49 $0.65 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC [M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $64.06 $0.62 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) Hidden $64.06 $30.10 0.47x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC [M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) Hidden $64.06 $3.40 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) Hidden $64.06 $7.55 0.12x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC [M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-battle-scarred) Hidden $64.06 $1.78 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) Hidden $64.06 $29.02 0.45x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $64.49 $1.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:09 UTC [M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-battle-scarred) Hidden $64.06 $1.78 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $64.06 $0.80 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $846 (12.91x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.59 on average: an expected loss of $15.41 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt