---
title: "M4 case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "M4 ($3.82) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 120 items with odds, observed 86.21% over 11.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [M4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · M4

A case on Key-Drop (WEAPON CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4?window=all)

Price · $3.82

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $3.34 from 120 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.21% · 11.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.06% ±12.35 910 openings

7 days · 86.42% ±3.63 10.1K openings

30 days · 86.21% ±3.37 11.6K openings

since tracking started · 86.21% ±3.37 11.6K openings

72.0% 85.0% 98.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4?window=24h) | 910 | 85.06% ±12.3 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4?window=7d) | 10.1K | 86.42% ±3.63 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4) | 11.6K | 86.21% ±3.37 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/m4?window=all) | 11.6K | 86.21% ±3.37 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 120 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $806 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $239 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $222 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $214 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 14,286 | $154 | 0.3% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 12,500 | $147 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 12,500 | $144 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 12,500 | $135 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $130 | 0.3% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $127 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $103 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $100 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $75.58 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $64.58 | 0.3% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 6,250 | $64.31 | 0.3% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 5,556 | $57.86 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 4,762 | $48.02 | 0.3% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.04× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $43.99 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $39.89 | 0.3% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.37× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 3,846 | $39.83 | 0.3% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 3,571 | $36.87 | 0.3% | 7 | 3.3 | 2.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 3,571 | $36.64 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 3,571 | $35.65 | 0.3% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.22× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 3,030 | $30.50 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.78× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $29.03 | 0.3% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Falak (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $28.18 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $27.36 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 2,381 | $23.67 | 0.3% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.22× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 6,250 | $22.79 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $22.32 | 0.1% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 2,222 | $22.08 | 0.3% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) | 1 in 2,174 | $21.85 | 0.3% | 14 | 5.4 | 2.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $20.76 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Falak (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-well-worn) | 1 in 4,348 | $16.81 | 0.1% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $15.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 3,030 | $15.31 | 0.2% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.78× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 3,030 | $15.28 | 0.2% | 7 | 3.9 | 1.82× |
| [M4A4 \| Falak (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,704 | $15.18 | 0.1% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 1,515 | $14.98 | 0.3% | 10 | 7.7 | 1.30× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-field-tested) | 1 in 1,493 | $14.88 | 0.3% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 124 | $13.55 | 3.3% | 67 | 94.4 | 0.71× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 144 | $13.19 | 2.7% | 67 | 81.1 | 0.83× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $12.66 | 6.9% | 153 | 211.4 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 103 | $12.38 | 3.6% | 71 | 113.0 | 0.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 177 | $10.60 | 1.8% | 43 | 66.1 | 0.65× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $9.69 | 1.6% | 29 | 62.9 | 0.46× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $8.77 | 3.3% | 78 | 145.1 | 0.54× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-operative-factory-new) | 1 in 315 | $8.58 | 0.8% | 32 | 37.0 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 365 | $8.46 | 0.7% | 24 | 32.0 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 248 | $7.85 | 0.9% | 21 | 47.2 | 0.45× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 147 | $7.69 | 1.6% | 53 | 79.1 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 254 | $7.64 | 0.9% | 33 | 46.0 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $7.50 | 2.0% | 77 | 104.4 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $7.50 | 2.0% | 47 | 104.4 | 0.45× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $6.91 | 1.9% | 76 | 105.6 | 0.72× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 103 | $6.43 | 1.9% | 84 | 113.1 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 215 | $5.84 | 0.8% | 39 | 54.4 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $5.81 | 2.7% | 127 | 181.6 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $5.77 | 2.7% | 135 | 184.2 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 181 | $5.77 | 1.0% | 44 | 64.7 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $5.57 | 2.6% | 80 | 179.9 | 0.44× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $5.27 | 1.6% | 62 | 116.7 | 0.53× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $5.10 | 2.8% | 145 | 214.4 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $5.04 | 1.6% | 68 | 127.7 | 0.53× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-well-worn) | 1 in 98 | $5.00 | 1.5% | 72 | 119.6 | 0.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-minimal-wear) | 1 in 219 | $4.76 | 0.6% | 33 | 53.2 | 0.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $4.68 | 1.8% | 68 | 148.0 | 0.46× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 94 | $4.53 | 1.4% | 70 | 124.0 | 0.56× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-well-worn) | 1 in 78 | $4.51 | 1.7% | 84 | 149.2 | 0.56× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $4.45 | 1.7% | 86 | 151.0 | 0.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 71 | $4.26 | 1.8% | 116 | 164.8 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $4.08 | 1.9% | 105 | 182.2 | 0.58× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $3.94 | 1.6% | 85 | 154.7 | 0.55× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 151 | $3.71 | 0.7% | 47 | 77.4 | 0.61× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $3.63 | 1.7% | 113 | 180.0 | 0.63× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 395 | $3.59 | 0.3% | 20 | 29.5 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 135 | $3.47 | 0.8% | 59 | 86.7 | 0.68× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $3.47 | 0.7% | 54 | 81.8 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 126 | $3.31 | 0.8% | 59 | 92.7 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-battle-scarred) | 1 in 101 | $3.20 | 1.0% | 64 | 115.9 | 0.55× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $2.74 | 0.7% | 66 | 98.3 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 1 in 275 | $2.57 | 0.3% | 24 | 42.5 | 0.56× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 190 | $2.49 | 0.4% | 46 | 61.3 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-factory-new) | 1 in 140 | $2.23 | 0.5% | 53 | 83.2 | 0.64× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 307 | $2.07 | 0.2% | 31 | 38.1 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-well-worn) | 1 in 126 | $1.94 | 0.5% | 57 | 92.8 | 0.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-field-tested) | 1 in 126 | $1.94 | 0.5% | 67 | 92.8 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 346 | $1.94 | 0.2% | 21 | 33.7 | 0.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) | 1 in 117 | $1.84 | 0.5% | 73 | 100.2 | 0.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-well-worn) | 1 in 121 | $1.80 | 0.4% | 57 | 96.5 | 0.59× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $1.77 | 0.4% | 62 | 98.8 | 0.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $1.75 | 0.5% | 56 | 100.4 | 0.56× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $1.65 | 0.8% | 100 | 199.7 | 0.50× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $1.54 | 0.5% | 75 | 128.5 | 0.58× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-operative-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $1.51 | 1.3% | 188 | 331.6 | 0.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $1.39 | 0.5% | 86 | 147.9 | 0.58× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) | 1 in 103 | $1.37 | 0.4% | 63 | 113.3 | 0.56× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 102 | $1.36 | 0.4% | 77 | 114.5 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 176 | $1.33 | 0.2% | 40 | 66.4 | 0.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $1.31 | 0.5% | 115 | 161.1 | 0.71× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.30 | 1.4% | 412 | 413.9 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $1.15 | 0.4% | 98 | 144.7 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $1.12 | 0.4% | 93 | 135.6 | 0.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 139 | $1.01 | 0.2% | 57 | 83.8 | 0.68× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 210 | $1.01 | 0.1% | 39 | 55.6 | 0.70× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $0.82 | 0.3% | 90 | 138.8 | 0.65× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.80 | 0.2% | 60 | 116.3 | 0.52× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $0.79 | 0.3% | 93 | 146.3 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 1 in 99 | $0.79 | 0.2% | 70 | 118.2 | 0.59× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Minimal Wear) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $0.74 | 0.7% | 249 | 389.4 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $0.72 | 0.2% | 94 | 134.7 | 0.70× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $0.71 | 0.3% | 95 | 169.7 | 0.56× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.70 | 1.0% | 554 | 530.2 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $0.62 | 0.5% | 199 | 310.2 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $0.54 | 0.3% | 151 | 234.6 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $0.49 | 0.3% | 169 | 268.7 | 0.63× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $0.45 | 0.2% | 116 | 172.4 | 0.67× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $0.42 | 0.2% | 141 | 189.9 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $0.39 | 0.2% | 115 | 210.7 | 0.55× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.17 | 0.4% | 964 | 931.0 | 1.04× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/m4`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=m4)

[M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) [baran - TimingisALL skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/baran%20-%20TimingisALL%20skins.army) $3.82 $0.17 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) [baran - TimingisALL skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/baran%20-%20TimingisALL%20skins.army) $3.82 $0.17 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) Hidden $3.82 $6.06 1.59x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) Hidden $3.82 $6.18 1.62x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.82 $1.00 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $3.82 $1.30 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mud-Spec weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $3.82 $1.00 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Minimal Wear) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-minimal-wear) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $3.82 $0.74 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) Hidden $3.82 $1.30 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[M4A1-S | Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-field-tested) Hidden $3.82 $1.89 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.82 | 87.50% | 120 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.82 | 87.61% | 120 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.82 | 87.09% | 120 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.82 | 87.58% | 120 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.82 | 87.80% | 120 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.82 | 87.76% | 120 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.82 | 87.14% | 120 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.82 | 87.20% | 120 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.82 | 87.49% | 120 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.82 | 87.89% | 120 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.82 | 87.91% | 120 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.82 | 87.87% | 120 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.82 | 87.54% | 120 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.82 | 87.19% | 120 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.82 | 87.49% | 120 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.82 | 87.47% | 120 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.82 | 87.61% | 120 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% epic 0.0% classified 5.2% red 0.0% restricted 16.9% rare 1.3% mil spec 4.6% Ancient 0.0% #d32ce6 1.3% pink 4.9% industrial 0.0% violet 14.4% Mythical 2.9% uncommon 1.8% #8847ff 8.7% blue 9.8% Classified 3.1% Rare 4.9% #d32ee6 1.8% Legendary 1.3% #4b69ff 0.5% Uncommon 0.7% Mil Spec Grade 1.7% light blue 3.3% Restricted 2.7% blueLight 8.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt