--- title: "MACHINE JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "MACHINE JOKER ($373.52) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 93.04% over 82 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [MACHINE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · MACHINE JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine-joker?window=all) Price · $373.52 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 93.04% · 82 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 15 openings · below min 7 days · 68 openings · below min 30 days · 82 openings · below min since tracking started · 82 openings · below min 15.0% 101.3% 187.5% **Small sample.** 82 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine-joker?window=24h) | 15 | 101.25% ±85.4 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine-joker?window=7d) | 68 | 98.17% ±38.2 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine-joker) | 82 | 93.04% ±32.6 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine-joker?window=all) | 82 | 93.04% ±32.6 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $372 $2,167 5.83x 2026-11-06 03:09 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $372 $2,167 5.83x 2026-11-06 03:09 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $372 $2,167 5.83x 2026-11-06 03:09 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $373 $1,888 5.06x 2026-11-11 16:13 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $367 $1,888 5.15x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) Hidden $372 $1,888 5.08x 2026-11-06 03:09 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) Hidden $372 $1,888 5.08x 2026-11-06 03:09 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $372 $1,047 2.82x 2026-11-06 03:10 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $372 $1,047 2.82x 2026-11-06 03:09 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $374 $831 2.22x 2026-11-03 09:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=machine-joker) [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $373 $1,888 5.06x 2026-11-11 16:13 UTC [Galil AR | Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-battle-scarred) Hidden $367 $140 0.38x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $367 $1,888 5.15x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [FAMAS | Commemoration weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $373 $40.37 0.11x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $373 $178 0.48x 2026-11-11 14:57 UTC [FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $368 $40.69 0.11x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) Hidden $368 $323 0.88x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $368 $170 0.46x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [SSG 08 | Big Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) Hidden $368 $17.59 0.05x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [AK-47 | Searing Rage weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $373 $9.36 0.03x 2026-11-10 21:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,167 (5.83x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.04 on average: an expected loss of $6.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt