---
title: "MACHINE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MACHINE ($54.25) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 69 items with odds, observed 86.67% over 3,482 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [MACHINE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · MACHINE

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine?window=all)

Price · $54.25

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $47.47 from 69 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.67% · 3,482 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.95% ±13.63 376 openings

7 days · 85.39% ±4.85 3,068 openings

30 days · 86.67% ±4.58 3,482 openings

since tracking started · 86.67% ±4.58 3,482 openings

75.5% 89.8% 104.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine?window=24h) | 376 | 89.95% ±13.6 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine?window=7d) | 3,068 | 85.39% ±4.85 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine) | 3,482 | 86.67% ±4.58 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/machine?window=all) | 3,482 | 86.67% ±4.58 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 69 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,482 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,142 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,888 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,109 | 0.9% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.15× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $806 | 1.0% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.91× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $787 | 1.0% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $360 | 1.0% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.10× |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) | 1 in 714 | $318 | 0.9% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.62× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $303 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $239 | 0.6% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.04× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $218 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $197 | 1.2% | 3 | 10.4 | 0.29× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 244 | $170 | 1.5% | 10 | 14.3 | 0.70× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $170 | 6.9% | 59 | 67.2 | 0.88× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $168 | 2.5% | 21 | 24.4 | 0.86× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $162 | 2.6% | 18 | 26.1 | 0.69× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $152 | 3.2% | 25 | 34.8 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $135 | 2.6% | 30 | 31.7 | 0.95× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $132 | 5.9% | 34 | 73.8 | 0.46× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $129 | 2.7% | 26 | 34.8 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 93 | $125 | 2.8% | 38 | 37.3 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 79 | $122 | 3.2% | 32 | 43.9 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $120 | 2.9% | 35 | 40.0 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $114 | 3.5% | 49 | 50.5 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $108 | 1.9% | 24 | 28.6 | 0.84× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $81.42 | 2.0% | 33 | 41.1 | 0.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 147 | $74.91 | 1.1% | 22 | 23.7 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $73.72 | 1.2% | 26 | 26.8 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $67.80 | 2.0% | 35 | 48.7 | 0.72× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 119 | $67.69 | 1.2% | 26 | 29.2 | 0.89× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 99 | $64.31 | 1.4% | 32 | 35.2 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $63.60 | 1.3% | 28 | 33.1 | 0.85× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $61.62 | 1.3% | 17 | 35.2 | 0.48× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 86 | $59.97 | 1.5% | 35 | 40.4 | 0.87× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 127 | $59.95 | 1.0% | 20 | 27.5 | 0.73× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $59.61 | 2.2% | 58 | 60.9 | 0.95× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) | 1 in 94 | $56.87 | 1.3% | 30 | 36.9 | 0.81× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $55.16 | 4.9% | 131 | 145.5 | 0.90× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $55.01 | 1.3% | 35 | 39.3 | 0.89× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $54.34 | 4.9% | 155 | 147.6 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $53.18 | 0.7% | 24 | 20.9 | 1.15× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $51.91 | 0.9% | 21 | 28.9 | 0.73× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $49.30 | 1.7% | 54 | 56.8 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $48.05 | 0.8% | 22 | 27.2 | 0.81× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $47.76 | 1.8% | 68 | 62.0 | 1.10× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-well-worn) | 1 in 122 | $46.43 | 0.8% | 20 | 28.6 | 0.70× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $46.01 | 0.8% | 14 | 28.9 | 0.48× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 93 | $41.56 | 0.9% | 23 | 37.3 | 0.62× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $41.10 | 1.4% | 43 | 54.3 | 0.79× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $36.60 | 1.4% | 53 | 65.5 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $31.79 | 1.1% | 47 | 57.1 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $24.64 | 0.1% | 11 | 8.7 | 1.26× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $18.32 | 0.3% | 30 | 28.9 | 1.04× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $15.48 | 0.4% | 32 | 44.2 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $13.55 | 0.4% | 36 | 52.6 | 0.68× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $13.48 | 0.5% | 46 | 55.4 | 0.83× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $12.77 | 0.5% | 50 | 60.2 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $12.59 | 0.5% | 43 | 59.2 | 0.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $12.38 | 0.5% | 49 | 60.6 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $12.18 | 0.5% | 57 | 62.3 | 0.91× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $11.64 | 0.5% | 60 | 70.0 | 0.86× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $11.25 | 0.4% | 47 | 63.4 | 0.74× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $9.64 | 0.5% | 57 | 81.1 | 0.70× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $9.44 | 0.5% | 61 | 83.9 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $8.47 | 0.2% | 36 | 48.7 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $5.59 | 0.3% | 78 | 95.1 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $5.30 | 0.3% | 84 | 103.4 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $5.16 | 0.3% | 83 | 107.9 | 0.77× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $5.00 | 0.4% | 96 | 119.8 | 0.80× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 14.2% | $2.07 | 0.6% | 397 | 495.1 | 0.80× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/machine`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $54.25 $1,113 20.52x 2026-11-10 14:32 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [FrN\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/FrN_) $54.25 $1,097 20.22x 2026-11-07 05:52 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [FrN\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/FrN_) $54.25 $1,097 20.22x 2026-11-07 05:52 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $54.25 $831 15.31x 2026-11-04 01:43 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [JonyGuardo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/JonyGuardo) $54.25 $831 15.31x 2026-11-03 18:28 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [JonyGuardo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/JonyGuardo) $54.25 $831 15.31x 2026-11-03 18:27 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $54.25 $813 14.98x 2026-11-10 14:32 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [MarcHociaS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MarcHociaS) $54.25 $794 14.63x 2026-11-10 07:32 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [MarcHociaS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MarcHociaS) $54.25 $794 14.63x 2026-11-10 07:27 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=machine)

[P250 | Apep's Curse weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse) [ゼロツー](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%BC%E3%83%AD%E3%83%84%E3%83%BC) $54.25 $56.58 1.04x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) Hidden $54.25 $12.48 0.23x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) Hidden $54.25 $9.89 0.18x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) Hidden $54.25 $57.33 1.06x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[P250 | Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-minimal-wear) [ゼロツー](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%BC%E3%83%AD%E3%83%84%E3%83%BC) $54.25 $67.80 1.25x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[SSG 08 | Big Iron weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron) [thecast2](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/thecast2) $54.25 $10.95 0.20x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning) [thecast2](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/thecast2) $54.25 $2.64 0.05x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC

[SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) [thecast2](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/thecast2) $54.25 $9.89 0.18x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) Hidden $54.25 $12.48 0.23x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) Hidden $54.25 $2.07 0.04x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $54.25 | 87.50% | 69 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $54.25 | 87.34% | 69 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $54.25 | 87.94% | 69 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $54.25 | 87.46% | 69 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $54.25 | 87.56% | 69 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $54.25 | 87.28% | 69 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $54.25 | 87.26% | 69 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $54.25 | 87.67% | 69 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $54.25 | 87.78% | 69 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $54.25 | 87.44% | 69 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $54.25 | 87.59% | 69 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $54.25 | 87.72% | 69 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $54.25 | 87.88% | 69 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $54.25 | 87.60% | 69 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $54.25 | 87.76% | 69 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $54.25 | 87.76% | 69 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $54.25 | 88.02% | 69 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $54.25 | 87.55% | 69 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 26.8% rare 1.8% legendary 0.1% Ancient 0.1% extraordinary 9.9% pink 16.3% classified 16.0% restricted 4.2% red 1.7% #d32ee6 2.3% #d32ce6 3.1% #8847ff 17.7% best hit $1,113 (20.52x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt