---
title: "MAFIA case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MAFIA ($3.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 34 items with odds, observed 88.93% over 4,295 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mafia
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [MAFIA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mafia)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · MAFIA

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mafia?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mafia?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mafia) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mafia?window=all)

Price · $3.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.62 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.93% · 4,295 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.04% ±17.19 330 openings

7 days · 90.74% ±5.30 3,554 openings

30 days · 88.93% ±4.82 4,295 openings

since tracking started · 88.93% ±4.82 4,295 openings

72.0% 90.0% 108.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mafia?window=24h) | 330 | 90.04% ±17.2 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mafia?window=7d) | 3,554 | 90.74% ±5.30 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mafia) | 4,295 | 88.93% ±4.82 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mafia?window=all) | 4,295 | 88.93% ±4.82 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,300 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · gold · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 10,000 | $230 | 0.9% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $137 | 2.1% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $130 | 1.5% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.33× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $54.81 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $41.56 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.33× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 1,695 | $20.70 | 0.5% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.18× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,471 | $17.89 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,190 | $14.53 | 0.5% | 8 | 3.6 | 2.21× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 990 | $12.09 | 0.5% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $7.89 | 2.4% | 29 | 35.0 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $7.50 | 5.0% | 48 | 74.6 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $7.50 | 5.0% | 57 | 74.6 | 0.76× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $6.99 | 5.7% | 95 | 92.1 | 1.03× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $6.48 | 5.7% | 105 | 99.3 | 1.06× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $5.71 | 1.9% | 26 | 38.4 | 0.68× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $5.04 | 5.7% | 155 | 127.8 | 1.21× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-battle-scarred) | 1 in 76 | $4.70 | 2.4% | 44 | 56.7 | 0.78× |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $4.08 | 10.4% | 158 | 286.6 | 0.55× |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $3.73 | 11.3% | 203 | 342.9 | 0.59× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $2.74 | 1.1% | 34 | 45.2 | 0.75× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.69 | 5.4% | 246 | 226.5 | 1.09× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.67 | 5.4% | 226 | 227.2 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55 | $2.22 | 1.5% | 65 | 78.5 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $2.17 | 1.6% | 54 | 81.1 | 0.67× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $2.03 | 1.6% | 64 | 89.0 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $1.84 | 2.0% | 80 | 120.2 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $1.65 | 1.3% | 54 | 91.8 | 0.59× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $1.54 | 2.1% | 141 | 154.2 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $1.18 | 1.5% | 99 | 146.8 | 0.67× |
| [Sticker \| Flex sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flex) | 1 in 14 | $1.18 | 3.3% | 357 | 315.0 | 1.13× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.94 | 2.9% | 318 | 345.0 | 0.92× |
| [MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.92 | 2.8% | 365 | 348.0 | 1.05× |
| [Sticker \| Cutie sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cutie) | 1 in 11 | $0.74 | 2.5% | 396 | 379.6 | 1.04× |
| [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.63 | 2.3% | 409 | 404.8 | 1.01× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/mafia`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · gold · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [yda4a](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/yda4a) $3.00 $240 79.91x 2026-11-04 21:34 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · gold · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [yda4a](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/yda4a) $3.00 $240 79.91x 2026-11-04 21:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=mafia)

[MP7 | Smoking Kills weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $3.00 $5.86 1.95x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[Sticker | Flex sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flex) [P͇A͇V͇A͇.͇U͇A͇](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/P%CD%87A%CD%87V%CD%87A%CD%87.%CD%87U%CD%87A%CD%87) $3.00 $1.18 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[MP7 | Smoking Kills weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills) [P͇A͇V͇A͇.͇U͇A͇](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/P%CD%87A%CD%87V%CD%87A%CD%87.%CD%87U%CD%87A%CD%87) $3.00 $5.86 1.95x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[AK-47 | Steel Delta weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta) [P͇A͇V͇A͇.͇U͇A͇](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/P%CD%87A%CD%87V%CD%87A%CD%87.%CD%87U%CD%87A%CD%87) $3.00 $2.14 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint) [P͇A͇V͇A͇.͇U͇A͇](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/P%CD%87A%CD%87V%CD%87A%CD%87.%CD%87U%CD%87A%CD%87) $3.00 $1.67 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) [P͇A͇V͇A͇.͇U͇A͇](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/P%CD%87A%CD%87V%CD%87A%CD%87.%CD%87U%CD%87A%CD%87) $3.00 $0.94 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[Sticker | Cutie sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cutie) [P͇A͇V͇A͇.͇U͇A͇](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/P%CD%87A%CD%87V%CD%87A%CD%87.%CD%87U%CD%87A%CD%87) $3.00 $0.74 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[Sticker | Flex sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flex) [P͇A͇V͇A͇.͇U͇A͇](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/P%CD%87A%CD%87V%CD%87A%CD%87.%CD%87U%CD%87A%CD%87) $3.00 $1.18 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[Sticker | Cutie sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cutie) [P͇A͇V͇A͇.͇U͇A͇](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/P%CD%87A%CD%87V%CD%87A%CD%87.%CD%87U%CD%87A%CD%87) $3.00 $0.74 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[Glock-18 | Blue Fissure weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure) [P͇A͇V͇A͇.͇U͇A͇](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/P%CD%87A%CD%87V%CD%87A%CD%87.%CD%87U%CD%87A%CD%87) $3.00 $3.89 1.30x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.00 | 88.13% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.00 | 87.98% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.00 | 87.84% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.00 | 88.05% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.00 | 87.83% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.00 | 88.08% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.00 | 87.95% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.00 | 87.74% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.00 | 88.14% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.00 | 87.52% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.00 | 88.43% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.00 | 87.71% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.00 | 87.99% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.00 | 88.01% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.00 | 87.78% | 34 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.00 | 88.04% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.0% covert 0.1% red 0.0% classified 9.5% uncommon 3.0% pink 1.7% Mil Spec Grade 6.7% mil spec 8.0% violet 25.0% blue 24.4% Rare 2.1% restricted 2.1% gray 17.4% best hit $240 (79.91x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt