--- title: "MANTIS JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "MANTIS JOKER ($709.78) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 78.85% over 252 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T23:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [MANTIS JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · MANTIS JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis-joker?window=all) Price · $709.78 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 78.85% · 252 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 5 openings · below min 7 days · 216 openings · below min 30 days · 252 openings · below min since tracking started · 252 openings · below min -0.5% 62.0% 124.5% **Small sample.** 252 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis-joker?window=24h) | 5 | 54.48% ±69.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis-joker?window=7d) | 216 | 83.68% ±25.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis-joker) | 252 | 78.85% ±22.0 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis-joker?window=all) | 252 | 78.85% ±22.0 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $698 $8,675 12.42x 2026-11-07 20:34 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) Hidden $698 $8,675 12.42x 2026-11-06 10:18 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) Hidden $684 $8,664 12.66x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) Hidden $692 $8,664 12.52x 2026-11-10 07:27 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) Hidden $692 $8,584 12.41x 2026-11-07 20:25 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $698 $2,056 2.94x 2026-11-07 20:30 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $692 $2,045 2.96x 2026-11-07 20:29 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) Hidden $692 $2,045 2.96x 2026-11-07 20:29 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) Hidden $684 $1,996 2.92x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) Hidden $709 $1,993 2.81x 2026-11-03 14:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=mantis-joker) [★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) [OjczymLeny](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OjczymLeny) $680 $180 0.26x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $688 $1,342 1.95x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $688 $155 0.22x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [AK-47 | Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) Hidden $688 $25.16 0.04x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) [OjczymLeny](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OjczymLeny) $688 $167 0.24x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $680 $202 0.30x 2026-11-10 22:24 UTC [★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $680 $698 1.03x 2026-11-10 22:24 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $680 $45.30 0.07x 2026-11-10 22:24 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $680 $22.90 0.03x 2026-11-10 22:24 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $684 $193 0.28x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $8,675 (12.42x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 78.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $78.85 on average: an expected loss of $21.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt