---
title: "MANTIS case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MANTIS ($120.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 75 items with odds, observed 88.56% over 2,517 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:16Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [MANTIS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · MANTIS

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis?window=all)

Price · $120.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $105.00 from 75 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.56% · 2,517 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.09% ±12.17 374 openings

7 days · 88.32% ±5.41 1,897 openings

30 days · 88.56% ±4.70 2,517 openings

since tracking started · 88.56% ±4.70 2,517 openings

73.5% 86.3% 99.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis?window=24h) | 374 | 86.09% ±12.2 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis?window=7d) | 1,897 | 88.32% ±5.41 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis) | 2,517 | 88.56% ±4.70 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mantis?window=all) | 2,517 | 88.56% ±4.70 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 75 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,517 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,664 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,996 | 1.0% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,328 | 0.9% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.70× |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $1,108 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 909 | $855 | 0.9% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 833 | $814 | 0.9% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 714 | $702 | 0.9% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 323 | $396 | 1.2% | 3 | 7.8 | 0.38× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) | 1 in 909 | $393 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $392 | 6.3% | 51 | 42.3 | 1.21× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 217 | $370 | 1.6% | 6 | 11.6 | 0.52× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 46 | $300 | 6.3% | 46 | 55.1 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $278 | 0.8% | 7 | 8.1 | 0.87× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 179 | $277 | 1.5% | 10 | 14.1 | 0.71× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 141 | $273 | 1.8% | 13 | 17.9 | 0.73× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $258 | 4.2% | 37 | 43.5 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 385 | $253 | 0.6% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.61× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 227 | $252 | 1.1% | 5 | 11.1 | 0.45× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $239 | 1.7% | 10 | 18.9 | 0.53× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $219 | 0.3% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $209 | 2.4% | 29 | 30.5 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $197 | 1.6% | 11 | 21.4 | 0.51× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $193 | 2.0% | 16 | 27.4 | 0.58× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 43 | $193 | 4.3% | 69 | 58.4 | 1.18× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $172 | 2.2% | 25 | 33.5 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $170 | 1.8% | 28 | 27.9 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-factory-new) | 1 in 417 | $167 | 0.4% | 6 | 6.0 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-minimal-wear) | 1 in 227 | $160 | 0.7% | 9 | 11.1 | 0.81× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $157 | 4.1% | 50 | 69.0 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 435 | $156 | 0.3% | 10 | 5.8 | 1.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $156 | 0.1% | 5 | 2.3 | 2.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 99 | $154 | 1.5% | 20 | 25.4 | 0.79× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $145 | 4.1% | 99 | 74.8 | 1.32× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $135 | 1.1% | 18 | 21.6 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $129 | 1.2% | 21 | 23.7 | 0.89× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $127 | 1.8% | 28 | 37.8 | 0.74× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 122 | $121 | 0.9% | 22 | 20.6 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $120 | 1.3% | 31 | 27.4 | 1.13× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $110 | 3.0% | 36 | 72.0 | 0.50× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 11.1% | $107 | 11.4% | 286 | 279.4 | 1.02× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $106 | 3.0% | 60 | 73.5 | 0.82× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $106 | 3.0% | 46 | 74.3 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $92.38 | 0.6% | 17 | 17.6 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 244 | $83.03 | 0.3% | 9 | 10.3 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 217 | $82.85 | 0.4% | 5 | 11.6 | 0.43× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $82.78 | 1.6% | 43 | 50.6 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $58.32 | 0.4% | 26 | 20.1 | 1.29× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 93 | $55.46 | 0.6% | 17 | 26.9 | 0.63× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $54.81 | 0.4% | 17 | 20.1 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $54.51 | 0.5% | 15 | 22.4 | 0.67× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $54.15 | 0.5% | 6 | 22.7 | 0.26× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $53.32 | 0.4% | 10 | 20.9 | 0.48× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $53.02 | 0.9% | 32 | 43.0 | 0.74× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $51.39 | 0.6% | 15 | 30.5 | 0.49× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $50.81 | 0.6% | 27 | 31.0 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 323 | $45.00 | 0.1% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $43.82 | 0.5% | 23 | 28.7 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 159 | $35.79 | 0.2% | 10 | 15.9 | 0.63× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $34.71 | 0.7% | 37 | 51.1 | 0.72× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $34.29 | 0.7% | 29 | 52.1 | 0.56× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $26.29 | 0.2% | 20 | 23.4 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 185 | $23.33 | 0.1% | 7 | 13.6 | 0.52× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 102 | $22.15 | 0.2% | 16 | 24.7 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $20.29 | 0.3% | 31 | 39.0 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $18.51 | 0.3% | 34 | 45.3 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $18.34 | 0.3% | 20 | 41.5 | 0.48× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $16.90 | 0.3% | 37 | 52.4 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $16.58 | 0.3% | 41 | 48.8 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $15.30 | 0.3% | 35 | 55.4 | 0.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $14.98 | 0.3% | 35 | 46.1 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $14.63 | 0.3% | 30 | 47.8 | 0.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $14.48 | 0.3% | 39 | 48.6 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $10.77 | 0.2% | 42 | 46.6 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $6.76 | 0.3% | 61 | 97.9 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $5.81 | 0.3% | 99 | 121.3 | 0.82× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/mantis`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) Hidden $120 $2,035 16.96x 2026-11-04 21:07 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $120 $1,398 11.65x 2026-11-03 20:13 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Apxcalypse.](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Apxcalypse.) $120 $1,347 11.22x 2026-11-09 16:33 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Apxcalypse.](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Apxcalypse.) $120 $1,332 11.10x 2026-11-09 16:33 UTC

[★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $120 $1,108 9.23x 2026-11-10 20:56 UTC

[★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $120 $1,105 9.21x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) [DaemonCS\_YT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/DaemonCS_YT) $120 $908 7.56x 2026-11-10 20:24 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $120 $890 7.42x 2026-11-06 23:44 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $120 $875 7.29x 2026-11-07 20:42 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $120 $703 5.86x 2026-11-03 19:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=mantis)

[R8 Revolver | Fade weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade) [Polesz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Polesz) $120 $108 0.90x 2026-11-11 12:32 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) [Polesz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Polesz) $120 $118 0.98x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $120 $390 3.25x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC

[M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire) [AM.](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AM.) $120 $154 1.28x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) Hidden $120 $5.77 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) Hidden $120 $17.41 0.15x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) Hidden $120 $19.05 0.16x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC

[M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) [AM.](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AM.) $120 $152 1.27x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator) [AvoCado](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AvoCado) $120 $17.10 0.14x 2026-11-11 10:00 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $120 $107 0.89x 2026-11-11 10:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $120 | 87.50% | 75 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $120 | 87.88% | 75 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $120 | 87.38% | 75 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $120 | 87.52% | 75 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $120 | 87.29% | 75 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $120 | 87.53% | 75 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $120 | 87.46% | 75 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $120 | 87.59% | 75 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $120 | 87.32% | 75 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $120 | 87.63% | 75 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $120 | 87.56% | 75 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $120 | 87.64% | 75 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $120 | 87.46% | 75 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $120 | 87.66% | 75 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $120 | 87.13% | 75 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $120 | 87.26% | 75 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $120 | 87.87% | 75 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 47.9% extraordinary 2.5% legendary 0.1% gold 5.7% restricted 4.3% Ancient 0.4% epic 2.7% classified 17.9% red 2.9% rare 2.4% Legendary 0.5% pink 12.5% best hit $2,035 (16.96x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt