--- title: "MARBLED JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "MARBLED JOKER ($210.33) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 85.79% over 510 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T17:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [MARBLED JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · MARBLED JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled-joker?window=all) Price · $210.33 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 85.79% · 510 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 182 openings · below min 7 days · 478 openings · below min 30 days · 510 openings · below min since tracking started · 510 openings · below min 59.5% 80.0% 100.5% **Small sample.** 510 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled-joker?window=24h) | 182 | 80.19% ±19.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled-joker?window=7d) | 478 | 86.27% ±12.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled-joker) | 510 | 85.79% ±12.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled-joker?window=all) | 510 | 85.79% ±12.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [casanowaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/casanowaa) $209 $1,762 8.45x 2026-11-08 18:47 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [S0ckra](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/S0ckra) $209 $1,762 8.45x 2026-11-05 20:53 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $206 $1,717 8.31x 2026-11-08 08:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $207 $1,709 8.24x 2026-11-06 10:20 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [casanowaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/casanowaa) $206 $1,705 8.27x 2026-11-08 18:47 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $206 $1,705 8.27x 2026-11-08 18:47 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $204 $1,697 8.34x 2026-11-10 22:51 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $202 $1,673 8.28x 2026-11-10 13:15 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $204 $1,671 8.18x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $204 $1,671 8.18x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=marbled-joker) [★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $204 $741 3.63x 2026-11-11 16:46 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $202 $742 3.67x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC [SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-minimal-wear) Hidden $202 $13.86 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [OjczymLeny](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OjczymLeny) $204 $741 3.63x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) Hidden $202 $47.73 0.24x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) Hidden $202 $12.49 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [OjczymLeny](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OjczymLeny) $202 $742 3.67x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $204 $151 0.74x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) Hidden $202 $138 0.68x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $202 $143 0.71x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,762 (8.45x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.79 on average: an expected loss of $14.21 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt