---
title: "MARBLED case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MARBLED ($20.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 94 items with odds, observed 86.55% over 9,608 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [MARBLED](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · MARBLED

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled?window=all)

Price · $20.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $17.50 from 94 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.55% · 9,608 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.26% ±6.05 1,635 openings

7 days · 85.83% ±2.85 7,445 openings

30 days · 86.55% ±2.51 9,608 openings

since tracking started · 86.55% ±2.51 9,608 openings

80.5% 87.3% 94.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled?window=24h) | 1,635 | 87.26% ±6.05 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled?window=7d) | 7,445 | 85.83% ±2.85 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled) | 9,608 | 86.55% ±2.51 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marbled?window=all) | 9,608 | 86.55% ±2.51 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 94 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,640 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,697 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $748 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 6,667 | $626 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $550 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $418 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $354 | 0.6% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.04× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,000 | $287 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $222 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,471 | $157 | 0.6% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,348 | $153 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 4,167 | $150 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,348 | $148 | 0.2% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.35× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 3,846 | $145 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 3,704 | $137 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $136 | 0.3% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $134 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,448 | $131 | 0.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $127 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $126 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,704 | $89.33 | 0.1% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,571 | $87.50 | 0.1% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,167 | $82.85 | 0.1% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 3,125 | $82.41 | 0.2% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $81.04 | 0.2% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,703 | $76.89 | 0.2% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,030 | $75.12 | 0.1% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 552 | $74.49 | 0.8% | 10 | 17.4 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 552 | $74.47 | 0.8% | 12 | 17.4 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 532 | $73.13 | 0.8% | 9 | 18.1 | 0.50× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 483 | $72.60 | 0.9% | 21 | 20.0 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 495 | $71.65 | 0.8% | 7 | 19.5 | 0.36× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 467 | $71.39 | 0.9% | 14 | 20.6 | 0.68× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 12,500 | $70.80 | 0.0% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 559 | $70.60 | 0.7% | 22 | 17.3 | 1.27× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 730 | $67.00 | 0.5% | 12 | 13.2 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 769 | $66.47 | 0.5% | 10 | 12.5 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 469 | $64.85 | 0.8% | 11 | 20.5 | 0.54× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 463 | $64.31 | 0.8% | 15 | 20.8 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 431 | $58.32 | 0.8% | 25 | 22.4 | 1.12× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $56.31 | 3.0% | 83 | 89.3 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 344 | $54.81 | 0.9% | 31 | 28.1 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 376 | $54.51 | 0.8% | 21 | 25.6 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 210 | $54.24 | 1.5% | 46 | 46.0 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 495 | $54.19 | 0.6% | 15 | 19.5 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 372 | $54.15 | 0.8% | 20 | 25.9 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 325 | $53.32 | 0.9% | 20 | 29.7 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 202 | $53.21 | 1.5% | 38 | 47.7 | 0.80× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 275 | $46.68 | 1.0% | 29 | 35.0 | 0.83× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 278 | $46.10 | 0.9% | 19 | 34.7 | 0.55× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 300 | $44.98 | 0.9% | 25 | 32.1 | 0.78× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 151 | $44.80 | 1.7% | 32 | 63.8 | 0.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 283 | $44.32 | 0.9% | 19 | 34.0 | 0.56× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 171 | $43.82 | 1.5% | 38 | 56.4 | 0.67× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 255 | $43.45 | 1.0% | 16 | 37.8 | 0.42× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 240 | $42.85 | 1.0% | 31 | 40.1 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 232 | $42.84 | 1.1% | 27 | 41.5 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 248 | $41.45 | 1.0% | 23 | 38.9 | 0.59× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 217 | $40.70 | 1.1% | 35 | 44.4 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 233 | $40.18 | 1.0% | 24 | 41.5 | 0.58× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-well-worn) | 1 in 233 | $39.59 | 1.0% | 33 | 41.4 | 0.80× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 197 | $39.44 | 1.1% | 35 | 49.0 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 223 | $39.35 | 1.0% | 23 | 43.2 | 0.53× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 206 | $38.98 | 1.1% | 24 | 46.9 | 0.51× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 1 in 222 | $38.61 | 1.0% | 32 | 43.5 | 0.74× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-well-worn) | 1 in 180 | $37.60 | 1.2% | 40 | 53.7 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 210 | $37.58 | 1.0% | 27 | 45.9 | 0.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 182 | $36.63 | 1.2% | 35 | 53.0 | 0.66× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-battle-scarred) | 1 in 159 | $35.42 | 1.3% | 44 | 60.5 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 94 | $35.40 | 2.1% | 72 | 102.2 | 0.70× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 137 | $32.83 | 1.4% | 46 | 70.4 | 0.65× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) | 16.5% | $25.53 | 24.0% | 1,143 | 1586.6 | 0.72× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 70 | $16.32 | 1.3% | 105 | 137.7 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $15.79 | 1.0% | 76 | 111.0 | 0.68× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $14.90 | 1.1% | 82 | 120.4 | 0.68× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $14.83 | 1.1% | 87 | 121.2 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $14.53 | 1.1% | 85 | 124.7 | 0.68× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $13.67 | 1.4% | 129 | 174.3 | 0.74× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $13.65 | 1.4% | 106 | 174.7 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 270 | $12.49 | 0.3% | 31 | 35.8 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $10.77 | 0.8% | 87 | 122.5 | 0.71× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $9.72 | 3.3% | 574 | 567.2 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $6.76 | 0.9% | 162 | 235.0 | 0.69× |
| [UMP-45 \| Houndstooth (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-houndstooth-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $5.93 | 2.4% | 724 | 691.1 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $5.81 | 1.0% | 223 | 290.5 | 0.77× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $4.94 | 0.3% | 70 | 110.9 | 0.63× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $4.70 | 2.1% | 742 | 758.5 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $4.60 | 0.4% | 96 | 144.3 | 0.67× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $3.87 | 0.4% | 146 | 183.7 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $3.44 | 0.4% | 165 | 216.6 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $3.26 | 0.5% | 177 | 233.6 | 0.76× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $2.85 | 0.4% | 176 | 239.4 | 0.74× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $2.63 | 0.4% | 200 | 267.8 | 0.75× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $2.59 | 0.4% | 205 | 273.5 | 0.75× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) | 10.5% | $2.27 | 1.4% | 979 | 1013.1 | 0.97× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/marbled`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [-KRUSH](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/-KRUSH) $20.00 $737 36.84x 2026-11-06 23:31 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [-KRUSH](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/-KRUSH) $20.00 $737 36.84x 2026-11-06 23:30 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $20.00 $622 31.08x 2026-11-06 23:24 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $20.00 $600 29.99x 2026-11-07 23:52 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=marbled)

[AK-47 | Safety Net weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net) [Equis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Equis) $20.00 $4.09 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[Tec-9 | Remote Control weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $20.00 $17.41 0.87x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[Tec-9 | Remote Control weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $20.00 $17.41 0.87x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $20.00 $14.99 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $20.00 $2.27 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[Tec-9 | Remote Control (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) Hidden $20.00 $25.04 1.25x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-well-worn) Hidden $20.00 $3.85 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[Tec-9 | Remote Control (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-well-worn) Hidden $20.00 $2.57 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) Hidden $20.00 $2.27 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) Hidden $20.00 $2.27 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $20.00 | 87.50% | 94 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $20.00 | 87.33% | 94 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $20.00 | 87.37% | 94 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $20.00 | 87.44% | 94 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $20.00 | 87.47% | 94 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $20.00 | 87.59% | 94 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $20.00 | 87.39% | 94 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $20.00 | 87.24% | 94 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $20.00 | 87.54% | 94 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $20.00 | 87.41% | 94 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $20.00 | 87.31% | 94 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $20.00 | 87.46% | 94 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $20.00 | 87.44% | 94 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $20.00 | 87.30% | 94 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $20.00 | 87.67% | 94 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $20.00 | 87.35% | 94 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.00 | 87.46% | 94 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 9.1% gold 0.0% legendary 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% epic 0.1% red 5.4% Covert 0.4% Ancient 2.7% classified 32.9% restricted 4.1% pink 9.6% blue 5.9% #87c7ff 7.2% violet 7.9% Mythical 4.3% light blue 10.5% best hit $737 (36.84x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt