--- title: "MARKER JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "MARKER JOKER ($13.88) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 81.47% over 12K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T17:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [MARKER JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · MARKER JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker-joker?window=all) Price · $13.88 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 81.47% · 12K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 77.13% ±7.41 2,450 openings 7 days · 80.68% ±3.81 10.4K openings 30 days · 81.47% ±3.57 12K openings since tracking started · 81.47% ±3.57 12K openings 69.0% 77.3% 85.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker-joker?window=24h) | 2,450 | 77.13% ±7.41 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker-joker?window=7d) | 10.4K | 80.68% ±3.81 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker-joker) | 12K | 81.47% ±3.57 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker-joker?window=all) | 12K | 81.47% ±3.57 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=marker-joker) [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) [????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $13.67 $134 9.82x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC [MP9 | Featherweight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-minimal-wear) [superstar](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/superstar) $13.67 $0.14 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [MP9 | Featherweight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-minimal-wear) [????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $13.67 $0.14 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-minimal-wear) [????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $13.67 $0.18 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-minimal-wear) [superstar](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/superstar) $13.67 $0.74 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader) [????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $13.67 $2.09 0.15x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [SG 553 | Aerial weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial) [????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $13.67 $0.45 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-minimal-wear) [????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $13.67 $0.74 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) [????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $13.67 $10.46 0.77x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-minimal-wear) [????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $13.67 $0.18 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 81.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $81.47 on average: an expected loss of $18.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt