---
title: "MARKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MARKER ($0.94) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 39 items with odds, observed 81.12% over 71.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [MARKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · MARKER

A case on Key-Drop (BESTSELLERS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker?window=all)

Price · $0.94

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.82 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.12% · 71.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.19% ±3.98 8,232 openings

7 days · 81.44% ±1.49 60.3K openings

30 days · 81.12% ±1.37 71.6K openings

since tracking started · 81.12% ±1.37 71.6K openings

76.5% 82.3% 88.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.38% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.75% – 82.50%, 71,560 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker?window=24h) | 8,232 | 81.19% ±3.98 | −3.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker?window=7d) | 60.3K | 81.44% ±1.49 | −7.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker) | 71.6K | 81.12% ±1.37 | −8.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/marker?window=all) | 71.6K | 81.12% ±1.37 | −8.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 71.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $130 | 1.6% | 2 | 7.2 | 0.28× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $43.77 | 1.0% | 7 | 13.6 | 0.51× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 3,571 | $28.66 | 1.0% | 10 | 20.0 | 0.50× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 2,439 | $19.39 | 1.0% | 17 | 29.4 | 0.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 1,351 | $10.60 | 1.0% | 36 | 53.0 | 0.68× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 855 | $6.67 | 0.9% | 60 | 83.8 | 0.72× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 1,408 | $5.33 | 0.5% | 18 | 50.8 | 0.35× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,205 | $4.92 | 0.5% | 24 | 59.4 | 0.40× |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,125 | $4.30 | 0.2% | 4 | 22.9 | 0.17× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 465 | $3.61 | 0.9% | 120 | 153.9 | 0.78× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.57 | 15.7% | 1,611 | 3591.7 | 0.45× |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $2.27 | 2.5% | 413 | 642.3 | 0.64× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Moments charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-moments) | 1 in 33 | $2.05 | 7.6% | 2,112 | 2175.3 | 0.97× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-minimal-wear) | 1 in 176 | $2.02 | 1.4% | 194 | 406.7 | 0.48× |
| [MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 239 | $1.91 | 1.0% | 158 | 300.0 | 0.53× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $1.51 | 1.9% | 901 | 727.5 | 1.24× |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $1.48 | 3.8% | 1,238 | 1510.1 | 0.82× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $1.46 | 4.8% | 1,060 | 1948.3 | 0.54× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $1.33 | 12.3% | 724 | 5455.5 | 0.13× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $1.28 | 12.8% | 3,666 | 5890.1 | 0.62× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.77 | 4.4% | 3,434 | 3353.9 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Continuum (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $0.66 | 1.8% | 791 | 1646.2 | 0.48× |
| [SG 553 \| Aerial (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-factory-new) | 1 in 113 | $0.65 | 0.7% | 397 | 635.1 | 0.63× |
| [MP5-SD \| Agent (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $0.60 | 1.6% | 798 | 1523.0 | 0.52× |
| [UMP-45 \| Continuum (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $0.56 | 2.0% | 1,088 | 2071.5 | 0.53× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-factory-new) | 1 in 114 | $0.56 | 0.6% | 343 | 629.4 | 0.54× |
| [MP5-SD \| Agent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $0.53 | 1.6% | 918 | 1812.3 | 0.51× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $0.51 | 0.7% | 444 | 827.0 | 0.54× |
| [SG 553 \| Aerial (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $0.48 | 0.8% | 542 | 969.5 | 0.56× |
| [SG 553 \| Aerial (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $0.44 | 0.8% | 639 | 1095.5 | 0.58× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-battle-scarred) | 1 in 70 | $0.44 | 0.8% | 558 | 1016.8 | 0.55× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $0.39 | 0.8% | 571 | 1203.7 | 0.47× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $0.38 | 0.8% | 638 | 1248.1 | 0.51× |
| [Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.38 | 2.9% | 4,730 | 4471.0 | 1.06× |
| [SG 553 \| Aerial (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $0.35 | 0.9% | 671 | 1508.7 | 0.44× |
| [Sticker \| Eyes of Farlow sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eyes-of-farlow) | 1 in 13 | $0.23 | 2.1% | 5,882 | 5464.8 | 1.08× |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.17 | 1.8% | 6,441 | 6167.3 | 1.04× |
| [MP9 \| Featherweight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.14 | 1.6% | 7,166 | 6665.6 | 1.08× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.11 | 1.1% | 2,980 | 6152.9 | 0.48× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/marker`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) [GrandRegantDachi](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GrandRegantDachi) $0.94 $135 144.1x 2026-11-05 12:25 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) [GrandRegantDachi](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GrandRegantDachi) $0.94 $135 144.1x 2026-11-05 12:22 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=marker)

[MP9 | Featherweight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-minimal-wear) [Hungng](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hungng) $0.94 $0.14 0.15x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-minimal-wear) [Hungng](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hungng) $0.94 $0.17 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[Sticker | Eyes of Farlow sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eyes-of-farlow) [Hungng](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hungng) $0.94 $0.23 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[Tec-9 | Avalanche weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche) [Hungng](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hungng) $0.94 $1.74 1.85x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[MP5-SD | Agent weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent) [Hungng](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hungng) $0.94 $0.67 0.71x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[Nova | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) [GANANA????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GANANA%3F%3F%3F%3F) $0.94 $0.38 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[Sticker | Eyes of Farlow sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eyes-of-farlow) [GANANA????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GANANA%3F%3F%3F%3F) $0.94 $0.23 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[AWP | Arsenic Spill weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill) [♛DenniX♛](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%99%9BDenniX%E2%99%9B) $0.94 $0.42 0.45x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-minimal-wear) [GANANA????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GANANA%3F%3F%3F%3F) $0.94 $0.77 0.82x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[UMP-45 | Continuum weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum) [GANANA????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GANANA%3F%3F%3F%3F) $0.94 $0.60 0.64x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.94 | 87.50% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.94 | 87.28% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.94 | 87.26% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.94 | 87.63% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.94 | 87.42% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.94 | 87.06% | 39 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.94 | 87.37% | 39 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.94 | 87.44% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.94 | 86.84% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.94 | 87.75% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.94 | 87.20% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.94 | 87.18% | 39 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.94 | 87.07% | 39 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.94 | 87.92% | 39 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.94 | 88.09% | 39 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.94 | 87.40% | 39 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.94 | 87.64% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 0.2% Legendary 0.2% restricted 9.9% violet 27.8% #8847ff 5.8% milspec 2.6% common 2.9% blue 33.3% Mil Spec 1.7% gray 6.2% #4b69ff 9.3% best hit $135 (144.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt