--- title: "MASK case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "MASK ($3.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 6 items with odds, observed 81.26% over 17.6K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mask rendered: 2026-11-11T20:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [MASK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mask) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · MASK A case on Key-Drop (RISK ZONE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mask?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mask?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mask) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mask?window=all) Price · $3.00 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.63 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.26% · 17.6K openings, odds method Variance · 14.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 46 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.60% ±12.30 3,592 openings 7 days · 82.83% ±5.89 14.7K openings 30 days · 81.26% ±5.30 17.6K openings since tracking started · 81.26% ±5.30 17.6K openings 75.5% 89.0% 102.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.50% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.96% – 86.57%, 17,645 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mask?window=24h) | 3,592 | 89.60% ±12.3 | +0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mask?window=7d) | 14.7K | 82.83% ±5.89 | −1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mask) | 17.6K | 81.26% ±5.30 | −2.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/mask?window=all) | 17.6K | 81.26% ±5.30 | −2.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.7K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $84.74 | 19.4% | 89 | 106.4 | 0.84× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $80.08 | 19.5% | 96 | 113.5 | 0.85× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $55.78 | 19.5% | 152 | 163.2 | 0.93× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 71 | $36.61 | 19.5% | 229 | 248.3 | 0.92× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $5.43 | 19.4% | 1,989 | 1661.8 | 1.20× | | [AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-field-tested) | 87.1% | $0.08 | 2.7% | 15,180 | 15441.9 | 0.98× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/mask`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=mask) [AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) [Miguel\_Z1K4](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Miguel_Z1K4) $3.00 $5.43 1.81x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $0.08 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $53.96 17.99x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) [Miguel\_Z1K4](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Miguel_Z1K4) $3.00 $5.31 1.77x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-field-tested) [Miguel\_Z1K4](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Miguel_Z1K4) $3.00 $0.08 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $0.08 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $0.08 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-field-tested) [Miguel\_Z1K4](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Miguel_Z1K4) $3.00 $0.08 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-field-tested) [nézzbealám](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/n%C3%A9zzbeal%C3%A1m) $3.00 $0.08 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-field-tested) [CİO BABA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/C%C4%B0O%20BABA) $3.00 $0.08 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.82% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.00 | 86.94% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.00 | 87.98% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.00 | 87.35% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.00 | 87.70% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.00 | 87.43% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.00 | 87.92% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.00 | 87.59% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.00 | 88.28% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.00 | 86.90% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.00 | 87.67% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.00 | 87.36% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.00 | 87.90% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.00 | 87.07% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.00 | 87.12% | 6 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.00 | 87.24% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 0.6% covert 3.0% Legendary 9.4% light blue 87.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt