---
title: "META case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "META ($0.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/meta
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [META](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/meta)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · META

A case on Key-Drop (COMMUNITY CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/meta?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/meta?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/meta) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/meta?window=all)

Price · $0.00

Advertised RTP · —

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · — · needs odds

Tail share · — · needs odds

Below price · — · needs odds

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/meta?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/meta?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/meta) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/meta?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $82.85 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $64.31 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $33.91 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $23.92 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $14.53 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $6.54 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $3.96 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1.56 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $1.36 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) | 1 in 1,538 | $0.76 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $0.75 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $0.16 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.09 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Focus (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.09 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-mockingbird-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.06 | 11.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Night Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-field-tested) | 33.6% | $0.02 | 18.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) | 33.6% | $0.02 | 18.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Dark Chamber (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-dark-chamber-field-tested) | 19.8% | $0.02 | 10.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/meta`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=meta)

[R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-dark-chamber-field-tested) [Kapones CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kapones%20CS2.ME) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-04 22:02 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-dark-chamber-field-tested) [sordo gai](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/sordo%20gai) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-04 22:02 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) [D-Certor](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D-Certor) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-04 22:01 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) [Juanesvc7\_SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Juanesvc7_SKINS) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-04 22:00 UTC

[SG 553 | Night Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-field-tested) [rofoleucio skins](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/rofoleucio%20skins) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-04 22:00 UTC

[SG 553 | Night Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-field-tested) [dios](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dios) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-04 22:00 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) [| Alfa | NO MONEY FOR SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%7C%20Alfa%20%7C%20NO%20MONEY%20FOR%20SKINS) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-04 22:00 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-dark-chamber-field-tested) [Osorryor\_N1N3](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Osorryor_N1N3) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-04 21:59 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) [ANTONIO LOBATO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ANTONIO%20LOBATO) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-04 21:59 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) [rodrii SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/rodrii%20SKINS) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-04 21:58 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% red 0.0% Legendary 0.0% classified 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% pink 0.0% restricted 0.0% violet 0.0% Mythical 0.1% Rare 0.9% milspec 2.0% blue 3.0% #4b69ff 7.0% gray 33.6% grey 33.6% #5e98d9 19.8%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** Every case pays out less than it costs on average; the rare items carry most of the advertised value and most openings return a fraction of the price. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt