---
title: "MILSPEC case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MILSPEC ($0.25) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 39 items with odds, observed 80.26% over 83K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/milspec
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [MILSPEC](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/milspec)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · MILSPEC

A case on Key-Drop (WEAPON CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/milspec?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/milspec?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/milspec) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/milspec?window=all)

Price · $0.25

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.22 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.26% · 83K openings, odds method

Variance · 7.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.79% ±5.19 10.8K openings

7 days · 80.62% ±2.04 68.6K openings

30 days · 80.26% ±1.86 83K openings

since tracking started · 80.26% ±1.86 83K openings

76.0% 82.8% 89.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 88.87% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.40% – 82.12%, 83,048 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/milspec?window=24h) | 10.8K | 81.79% ±5.19 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/milspec?window=7d) | 68.6K | 80.62% ±2.04 | −7.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/milspec) | 83K | 80.26% ±1.86 | −9.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/milspec?window=all) | 83K | 80.26% ±1.86 | −9.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 83.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 3,704 | $20.39 | 2.5% | 11 | 22.5 | 0.49× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $18.80 | 3.4% | 19 | 33.3 | 0.57× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $17.34 | 3.2% | 19 | 33.3 | 0.57× |
| [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,515 | $8.83 | 2.7% | 20 | 54.9 | 0.36× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,704 | $5.39 | 0.7% | 6 | 22.5 | 0.27× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,704 | $3.81 | 0.5% | 5 | 22.5 | 0.22× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,515 | $3.74 | 1.1% | 26 | 54.9 | 0.47× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 1,087 | $3.37 | 1.4% | 24 | 76.6 | 0.31× |
| [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-minimal-wear) | 1 in 885 | $2.40 | 1.2% | 38 | 94.1 | 0.40× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 1,515 | $2.39 | 0.7% | 22 | 54.9 | 0.40× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,235 | $2.39 | 0.9% | 18 | 67.4 | 0.27× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 952 | $1.91 | 0.9% | 41 | 87.4 | 0.47× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 952 | $1.90 | 0.9% | 29 | 87.4 | 0.33× |
| [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-field-tested) | 1 in 518 | $1.83 | 1.6% | 47 | 160.6 | 0.29× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 1 in 246 | $1.06 | 2.0% | 149 | 338.8 | 0.44× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,282 | $0.80 | 0.3% | 17 | 64.9 | 0.26× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 252 | $0.66 | 1.2% | 108 | 330.4 | 0.33× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 134 | $0.48 | 1.6% | 234 | 623.4 | 0.38× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-operative-field-tested) | 1 in 181 | $0.45 | 1.1% | 144 | 460.3 | 0.31× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $0.41 | 2.8% | 318 | 1260.2 | 0.25× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 259 | $0.41 | 0.7% | 141 | 321.3 | 0.44× |
| [UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-oscillator-factory-new) | 1 in 144 | $0.39 | 1.2% | 154 | 576.8 | 0.27× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $0.32 | 2.8% | 1,328 | 1614.8 | 0.82× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-operative-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $0.30 | 1.7% | 485 | 1033.8 | 0.47× |
| [UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-oscillator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 85 | $0.30 | 1.6% | 452 | 973.9 | 0.46× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $0.30 | 2.8% | 1,576 | 1722.2 | 0.92× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.24 | 2.5% | 314 | 1876.1 | 0.17× |
| [XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-run-run-run-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.20 | 6.4% | 6,193 | 5864.0 | 1.06× |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.17 | 5.7% | 7,713 | 6057.9 | 1.27× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.15 | 5.1% | 7,204 | 6211.1 | 1.16× |
| [MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.15 | 5.1% | 7,017 | 6211.1 | 1.13× |
| [Sticker \| Boom Trail sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail) | 1 in 13 | $0.15 | 5.1% | 5,654 | 6211.1 | 0.91× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.15 | 5.1% | 5,906 | 6211.1 | 0.95× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.14 | 2.8% | 1,886 | 3581.6 | 0.53× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.14 | 3.6% | 2,152 | 4694.5 | 0.46× |
| [Sticker \| Hydro Wave sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hydro-wave) | 1 in 13 | $0.14 | 4.8% | 7,610 | 6297.6 | 1.21× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.11 | 4.0% | 6,397 | 6608.9 | 0.97× |
| [P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-lifted-spirits-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.11 | 4.0% | 5,570 | 6608.9 | 0.84× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-spirit-board-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.11 | 4.0% | 5,155 | 6608.9 | 0.78× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/milspec`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $0.25 $21.03 84.12x 2026-11-04 13:41 UTC

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [ELCHEMORRITA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ELCHEMORRITA) $0.25 $20.64 82.56x 2026-11-06 14:41 UTC

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [ELCHEMORRITA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ELCHEMORRITA) $0.25 $20.64 82.56x 2026-11-06 14:38 UTC

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [ELCHEMORRITA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ELCHEMORRITA) $0.25 $20.64 82.56x 2026-11-06 13:08 UTC

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [ELCHEMORRITA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ELCHEMORRITA) $0.25 $20.64 82.56x 2026-11-06 13:06 UTC

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [Asignación universal por hijo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Asignaci%C3%B3n%20universal%20por%20hijo) $0.25 $20.46 81.84x 2026-11-08 15:29 UTC

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [Asignación universal por hijo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Asignaci%C3%B3n%20universal%20por%20hijo) $0.25 $20.46 81.84x 2026-11-08 15:27 UTC

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [Rui](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Rui) $0.25 $20.35 81.40x 2026-11-03 19:07 UTC

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [meu macho](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/meu%20macho) $0.25 $20.28 81.12x 2026-11-05 19:22 UTC

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [meu macho](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/meu%20macho) $0.25 $20.28 81.12x 2026-11-05 19:20 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=milspec)

[MP9 | Shredded weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded) [yudeS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/yudeS) $0.25 $0.16 0.64x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) [yudeS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/yudeS) $0.25 $0.15 0.60x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-lifted-spirits-minimal-wear) [yudeS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/yudeS) $0.25 $0.11 0.44x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[Sticker | Boom Trail sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail) [elSimione](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/elSimione) $0.25 $0.15 0.60x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) [STRUGLY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/STRUGLY) $0.25 $0.15 0.60x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-run-run-run-field-tested) [Afonso](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Afonso) $0.25 $0.20 0.80x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-lifted-spirits-minimal-wear) [STRUGLY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/STRUGLY) $0.25 $0.11 0.44x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[UMP-45 | Late Night Transit weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit) [BatmanV8](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BatmanV8) $0.25 $0.18 0.72x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-lifted-spirits-minimal-wear) [yudeS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/yudeS) $0.25 $0.11 0.44x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) [yudeS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/yudeS) $0.25 $0.15 0.60x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.25 | 87.50% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.25 | 85.84% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.25 | 87.49% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.25 | 87.87% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.25 | 87.07% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.25 | 87.35% | 39 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.25 | 88.34% | 39 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.25 | 89.21% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.25 | 90.36% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.25 | 89.51% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.25 | 90.52% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.25 | 90.92% | 39 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.25 | 90.44% | 39 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.25 | 89.88% | 39 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.25 | 89.88% | 39 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.25 | 90.29% | 39 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.25 | 88.58% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 0.7% mil spec 0.2% blue 88.1% milspec 0.0% Mil Spec Grade 0.1% Rare 0.9% #4b69ff 0.4% Mil Spec 2.1% violet 7.5% best hit $21.03 (84.12x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt