---
title: "MONSTER MASH case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "MONSTER MASH ($1.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.72% from 43 items with odds, observed 83.40% over 344K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/monster-mash
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [MONSTER MASH](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/monster-mash)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · MONSTER MASH

A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/monster-mash?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/monster-mash?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/monster-mash) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/monster-mash?window=all)

Price · $1.00

Advertised RTP · 87.72% · EV $0.88 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.40% · 344K openings, odds method

Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 83.69% ±0.96 248K openings

30 days · 83.40% ±0.82 344K openings

since tracking started · 83.40% ±0.82 344K openings

82.0% 85.0% 88.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.21% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.59% – 84.22%, 343,846 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/monster-mash?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/monster-mash?window=7d) | 248K | 83.69% ±0.96 | −7.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/monster-mash) | 344K | 83.40% ±0.82 | −9.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/monster-mash?window=all) | 344K | 83.40% ±0.82 | −9.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 345K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 33,333 | $403 | 1.4% | 9 | 10.4 | 0.87× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $82.52 | 0.1% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.29× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $47.55 | 0.1% | 3 | 6.9 | 0.43× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $45.60 | 0.3% | 12 | 17.3 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $42.74 | 0.2% | 5 | 17.3 | 0.29× |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $36.50 | 0.1% | 8 | 10.4 | 0.77× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 50,000 | $33.48 | 0.1% | 4 | 6.9 | 0.58× |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $28.93 | 0.6% | 30 | 58.7 | 0.51× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $27.92 | 0.1% | 2 | 6.9 | 0.29× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $15.38 | 0.4% | 33 | 69.0 | 0.48× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $14.30 | 0.2% | 14 | 34.5 | 0.41× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $7.50 | 0.1% | 13 | 34.5 | 0.38× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $7.10 | 0.1% | 19 | 34.5 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $7.01 | 0.1% | 16 | 34.5 | 0.46× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $6.70 | 0.1% | 19 | 34.5 | 0.55× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $6.37 | 0.1% | 33 | 69.0 | 0.48× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $5.96 | 0.1% | 8 | 34.5 | 0.23× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $5.81 | 0.1% | 28 | 69.0 | 0.41× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $5.72 | 0.1% | 44 | 69.0 | 0.64× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $4.79 | 0.2% | 67 | 103.5 | 0.65× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $3.84 | 0.4% | 153 | 310.5 | 0.49× |
| [P2000 \| Turf (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 476 | $3.62 | 0.9% | 524 | 724.6 | 0.72× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 909 | $3.55 | 0.4% | 338 | 379.5 | 0.89× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $3.14 | 8.6% | 6,150 | 8280.9 | 0.74× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $2.30 | 5.2% | 6,315 | 6900.8 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Hunter (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $2.08 | 5.2% | 7,208 | 7590.8 | 0.95× |
| [MP7 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $1.90 | 5.2% | 7,266 | 8315.4 | 0.87× |
| [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $1.74 | 5.2% | 8,212 | 9109.0 | 0.90× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $1.33 | 3.5% | 7,348 | 7970.4 | 0.92× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $1.22 | 3.5% | 8,168 | 8729.5 | 0.94× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $1.19 | 3.5% | 8,793 | 8936.5 | 0.98× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $1.16 | 3.5% | 8,554 | 9178.0 | 0.93× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $1.12 | 3.5% | 9,398 | 9488.5 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $1.07 | 3.5% | 9,798 | 9937.1 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Rainbow Route sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route) | 1 in 14 | $0.66 | 5.5% | 24,943 | 25084.3 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) | 1 in 14 | $0.66 | 5.5% | 25,791 | 25084.3 | 1.03× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.63 | 5.3% | 24,956 | 25601.8 | 0.97× |
| [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.63 | 5.3% | 25,107 | 25601.8 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.48 | 4.5% | 29,131 | 28569.1 | 1.02× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.48 | 4.5% | 28,434 | 28569.1 | 1.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.45 | 4.4% | 30,913 | 29328.2 | 1.05× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.44 | 4.3% | 31,645 | 29569.8 | 1.07× |
| [Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.39 | 4.0% | 35,076 | 31053.4 | 1.13× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/monster-mash`, 9 Nov, 08:09 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [✞????????????✞](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%9E%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%E2%9C%9E) $1.00 $413 412.9x 2026-11-04 17:20 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [✞????????????✞](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%9E%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%E2%9C%9E) $1.00 $413 412.9x 2026-11-04 17:20 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Maestro Astilla](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Maestro%20Astilla) $1.00 $409 409.2x 2026-11-05 23:19 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Maestro Astilla](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Maestro%20Astilla) $1.00 $409 409.2x 2026-11-05 23:19 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [lautaroaguilera014](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/lautaroaguilera014) $1.00 $408 407.7x 2026-11-08 17:16 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [ᴀᴍɪᴛᴀʙʜᴀ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E1%B4%80%E1%B4%8D%C9%AA%E1%B4%9B%E1%B4%80%CA%99%CA%9C%E1%B4%80) $1.00 $408 407.7x 2026-11-04 11:12 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1.00 $408 407.7x 2026-11-04 03:42 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1.00 $408 407.7x 2026-11-04 00:09 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1.00 $408 407.7x 2026-11-07 20:40 UTC

[M4A4 | Full Throttle (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.00 $86.04 86.04x 2026-11-05 06:16 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=monster-mash)

[Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) [small man](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/small%20man) $1.00 $0.48 0.48x 2026-11-09 09:02 UTC

[Sticker | Rainbow Route sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route) [PRIZMA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PRIZMA) $1.00 $0.66 0.66x 2026-11-09 09:02 UTC

[P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-minimal-wear) [\_SylphX\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/_SylphX_) $1.00 $0.48 0.48x 2026-11-09 09:02 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) [small man](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/small%20man) $1.00 $0.50 0.50x 2026-11-09 09:02 UTC

[Sticker | Rainbow Route sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route) [PRIZMA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PRIZMA) $1.00 $0.66 0.66x 2026-11-09 09:02 UTC

[P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-minimal-wear) [small man](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/small%20man) $1.00 $0.48 0.48x 2026-11-09 09:01 UTC

[P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-minimal-wear) [small man](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/small%20man) $1.00 $0.48 0.48x 2026-11-09 09:01 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.44 0.44x 2026-11-09 09:01 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.50 0.50x 2026-11-09 09:01 UTC

[Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.45 0.45x 2026-11-09 09:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1.00 | 87.72% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.00 | 87.98% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.00 | 87.11% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.00 | 87.67% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.00 | 87.27% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.00 | 87.19% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.00 | 87.57% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.00 | 87.73% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.00 | 87.36% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.00 | 87.12% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.00 | 86.05% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.00 | 87.09% | 43 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.00 | 87.12% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% red 0.0% Ancient 0.0% classified 0.1% pink 0.3% Legendary 0.0% rare 0.0% #d32ce6 0.0% #4b69ff 0.2% violet 42.8% blue 21.5% gray 35.1% best hit $413 (412.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.72 on average: an expected loss of $12.28 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt