---
title: "MOON WISH case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MOON WISH ($3.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.74% from 34 items with odds, observed 84.80% over 66.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/moon-wish
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [MOON WISH](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/moon-wish)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · MOON WISH

A case on Key-Drop (HALLOWEEN), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/moon-wish?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/moon-wish?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/moon-wish) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/moon-wish?window=all)

Price · $3.00

Advertised RTP · 87.74% · EV $2.63 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.80% · 66.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 84.93% ±1.95 51.1K openings

30 days · 84.80% ±1.71 66.4K openings

since tracking started · 84.80% ±1.71 66.4K openings

82.5% 85.5% 88.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.75% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.09% – 86.51%, 66,374 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/moon-wish?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/moon-wish?window=7d) | 51.1K | 84.93% ±1.95 | −2.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/moon-wish) | 66.4K | 84.80% ±1.71 | −3.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/moon-wish?window=all) | 66.4K | 84.80% ±1.71 | −3.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 67.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $794 | 0.9% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 14,286 | $526 | 1.4% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.85× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $132 | 0.5% | 7 | 6.7 | 1.04× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $97.94 | 0.4% | 2 | 6.7 | 0.30× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $54.24 | 0.4% | 14 | 13.4 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $43.60 | 0.8% | 21 | 33.6 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $40.66 | 0.6% | 36 | 26.9 | 1.34× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $30.61 | 0.6% | 18 | 33.6 | 0.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 714 | $17.16 | 0.9% | 47 | 94.1 | 0.50× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $15.98 | 0.4% | 26 | 47.0 | 0.55× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 455 | $10.77 | 0.9% | 56 | 147.9 | 0.38× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 192 | $10.63 | 2.1% | 169 | 349.5 | 0.48× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 417 | $10.32 | 0.9% | 100 | 161.3 | 0.62× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $8.55 | 1.1% | 150 | 235.2 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $8.52 | 1.1% | 109 | 235.2 | 0.46× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) | 1 in 278 | $8.34 | 1.1% | 133 | 242.0 | 0.55× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 256 | $8.06 | 1.2% | 156 | 262.1 | 0.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $7.96 | 1.2% | 148 | 268.8 | 0.55× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $7.17 | 10.1% | 2,075 | 2486.7 | 0.83× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $4.36 | 10.1% | 4,068 | 4079.6 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $3.76 | 4.9% | 1,303 | 2305.3 | 0.57× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $3.68 | 4.9% | 1,527 | 2352.3 | 0.65× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $3.55 | 5.2% | 1,571 | 2580.8 | 0.61× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $3.46 | 5.2% | 1,665 | 2648.0 | 0.63× |
| [XM1014 \| Watchdog (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-watchdog-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $2.04 | 1.8% | 897 | 1552.5 | 0.58× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) | 1 in 12 | $1.89 | 6.0% | 5,687 | 5585.1 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Hunter (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $1.84 | 5.9% | 5,498 | 5685.9 | 0.97× |
| [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.72 | 5.7% | 5,898 | 5833.7 | 1.01× |
| [XM1014 \| Watchdog (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-watchdog-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $1.65 | 1.9% | 1,379 | 2090.2 | 0.66× |
| [Sticker \| Cedar Creek sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek) | 1 in 11 | $1.63 | 5.5% | 5,974 | 5974.9 | 1.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Watchdog (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-watchdog-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $1.59 | 2.0% | 1,342 | 2184.3 | 0.61× |
| [UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $1.48 | 5.2% | 6,333 | 6169.8 | 1.03× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Tire (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-tire-factory-new) | 10.1% | $1.19 | 4.5% | 7,284 | 6754.5 | 1.08× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-factory-new) | 10.1% | $1.19 | 4.5% | 6,894 | 6754.5 | 1.02× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/moon-wish`, 10 Nov, 02:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $3.00 $786 261.9x 2026-11-09 03:16 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Fan4Haze](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Fan4Haze) $3.00 $527 175.6x 2026-11-08 13:30 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Fan4Haze](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Fan4Haze) $3.00 $527 175.6x 2026-11-08 13:29 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $3.00 $527 175.6x 2026-11-07 23:59 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $3.00 $527 175.6x 2026-11-07 17:44 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=moon-wish)

[XM1014 | Blue Tire (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-tire-factory-new) [IDK.GABY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/IDK.GABY) $3.00 $1.19 0.40x 2026-11-10 06:35 UTC

[XM1014 | Watchdog weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-watchdog) [IDK.GABY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/IDK.GABY) $3.00 $1.73 0.58x 2026-11-10 06:34 UTC

[UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) [IDK.GABY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/IDK.GABY) $3.00 $1.72 0.57x 2026-11-10 06:34 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-factory-new) [IDK.GABY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/IDK.GABY) $3.00 $1.19 0.40x 2026-11-10 06:34 UTC

[FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) [IDK.GABY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/IDK.GABY) $3.00 $7.17 2.39x 2026-11-10 06:34 UTC

[Sticker | Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) [IDK.GABY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/IDK.GABY) $3.00 $1.89 0.63x 2026-11-10 06:34 UTC

[FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) [IDK.GABY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/IDK.GABY) $3.00 $7.17 2.39x 2026-11-10 06:34 UTC

[Sticker | Cedar Creek sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek) [IDK.GABY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/IDK.GABY) $3.00 $1.63 0.54x 2026-11-10 06:34 UTC

[Sticker | Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) [IDK.GABY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/IDK.GABY) $3.00 $1.89 0.63x 2026-11-10 06:33 UTC

[XM1014 | Watchdog weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-watchdog) [IDK.GABY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/IDK.GABY) $3.00 $1.73 0.58x 2026-11-10 06:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.00 | 87.74% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.00 | 87.92% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.00 | 87.67% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.00 | 87.84% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.00 | 87.86% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.00 | 87.87% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.00 | 87.98% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.00 | 87.68% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.00 | 87.38% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.00 | 87.70% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.00 | 87.72% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.00 | 87.52% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.00 | 87.81% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.00 | 87.62% | 34 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.00 | 87.68% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 0.0% covert 0.1% sunny 0.0% red 0.0% pink 30.8% #d32ce6 0.1% classified 1.3% blue 29.5% violet 18.1% gray 20.1% best hit $786 (261.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.74 on average: an expected loss of $12.26 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt