---
title: "NEW AGE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "NEW AGE ($0.25) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 21 items with odds, observed 82.52% over 55.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-age
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:01Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [NEW AGE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-age)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · NEW AGE

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-age?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-age?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-age) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-age?window=all)

Price · $0.25

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.22 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.52% · 55.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.84% ±4.91 5,179 openings

7 days · 83.25% ±1.68 44.6K openings

30 days · 82.52% ±1.51 55.2K openings

since tracking started · 82.52% ±1.51 55.2K openings

80.5% 87.0% 93.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.20% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.01% – 84.03%, 55,220 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-age?window=24h) | 5,179 | 87.84% ±4.91 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-age?window=7d) | 44.6K | 83.25% ±1.68 | −4.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-age) | 55.2K | 82.52% ±1.51 | −6.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-age?window=all) | 55.2K | 82.52% ±1.51 | −6.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 55.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $38.17 | 1.7% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $18.68 | 0.9% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.36× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $8.20 | 0.4% | 1 | 5.5 | 0.18× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $1.31 | 0.4% | 135 | 33.2 | 4.07× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $0.66 | 2.5% | 603 | 464.9 | 1.30× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Downtown (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-downtown-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $0.65 | 2.5% | 625 | 470.5 | 1.33× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 114 | $0.63 | 2.5% | 830 | 487.1 | 1.70× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.45 | 9.1% | 1,072 | 2457.5 | 0.44× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $0.42 | 4.5% | 194 | 1300.7 | 0.15× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.42 | 9.1% | 1,053 | 2634.7 | 0.40× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $0.41 | 4.6% | 175 | 1367.1 | 0.13× |
| [SSG 08 \| Memorial (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-memorial-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.26 | 9.1% | 11,231 | 4256.4 | 2.64× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.23 | 7.5% | 682 | 3968.6 | 0.17× |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.18 | 6.4% | 1,591 | 4322.8 | 0.37× |
| [Sticker \| Boom Trail sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail) | 1 in 13 | $0.17 | 6.2% | 1,952 | 4422.5 | 0.44× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.15 | 5.8% | 3,420 | 4649.4 | 0.74× |
| [MP9 \| Featherweight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.15 | 5.8% | 3,577 | 4649.4 | 0.77× |
| [Sticker \| Hydro Wave sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hydro-wave) | 1 in 12 | $0.15 | 5.8% | 12,391 | 4649.4 | 2.67× |
| [UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.12 | 5.0% | 2,296 | 5036.9 | 0.46× |
| [Galil AR \| Destroyer (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.12 | 5.0% | 5,513 | 5081.1 | 1.08× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.12 | 5.0% | 7,237 | 5081.1 | 1.42× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/new-age`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.25 $37.46 149.8x 2026-11-07 14:38 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) [SKINS ASHITAKA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SKINS%20ASHITAKA) $0.25 $37.09 148.4x 2026-11-11 06:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) [SKINS ASHITAKA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SKINS%20ASHITAKA) $0.25 $37.09 148.4x 2026-11-11 06:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.25 $36.57 146.3x 2026-11-08 21:20 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.25 $36.57 146.3x 2026-11-08 19:25 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-field-tested) Hidden $0.25 $20.58 82.32x 2026-11-07 14:14 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-field-tested) Hidden $0.25 $19.68 78.72x 2026-11-08 01:10 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=new-age)

[MP9 | Featherweight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-minimal-wear) [Darius](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Darius) $0.25 $0.15 0.60x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC

[MP9 | Featherweight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-minimal-wear) [PLANT PERFEITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PLANT%20PERFEITO) $0.25 $0.15 0.60x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [PLANT PERFEITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PLANT%20PERFEITO) $0.25 $0.42 1.68x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC

[UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) [PLANT PERFEITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PLANT%20PERFEITO) $0.25 $0.12 0.48x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC

[UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) [PLANT PERFEITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PLANT%20PERFEITO) $0.25 $0.12 0.48x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-minimal-wear) [KOKAIN ABJUZER](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/KOKAIN%20ABJUZER) $0.25 $0.12 0.48x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC

[Sticker | Hydro Wave sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hydro-wave) [Darius](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Darius) $0.25 $0.15 0.60x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC

[UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) [♛????????????????♛](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%99%9B%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%E2%99%9B) $0.25 $0.12 0.48x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) Hidden $0.25 $0.23 0.92x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC

[Sticker | Boom Trail sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail) Hidden $0.25 $0.17 0.68x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $0.25 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.25 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.25 | 87.51% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.25 | 88.75% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.25 | 86.00% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.25 | 86.13% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.25 | 88.02% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.25 | 87.02% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.25 | 87.45% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.25 | 87.87% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.25 | 88.60% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.25 | 85.01% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.25 | 89.03% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.25 | 87.84% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.25 | 86.70% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.25 | 86.78% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.25 | 88.38% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.25 | 86.73% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.0% Legendary 0.0% pink 0.0% violet 22.3% Mythical 2.4% blue 66.9% #4b69ff 8.4% best hit $37.46 (149.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt