--- title: "NEW KNIVES JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "NEW KNIVES JOKER ($351.24) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 91.58% over 280 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T22:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [NEW KNIVES JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · NEW KNIVES JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives-joker?window=all) Price · $351.24 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 91.58% · 280 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 152 openings · below min 30 days · 280 openings · below min since tracking started · 280 openings · below min 60.0% 92.5% 125.0% **Small sample.** 280 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives-joker?window=24h) | 18 | 92.49% ±31.9 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives-joker?window=7d) | 152 | 96.10% ±13.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives-joker) | 280 | 91.58% ±8.71 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives-joker?window=all) | 280 | 91.58% ±8.71 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $351 $1,085 3.09x 2026-11-03 12:46 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [KaelenCross](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/KaelenCross) $345 $1,073 3.11x 2026-11-10 17:40 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $345 $1,073 3.11x 2026-11-09 05:08 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $345 $1,073 3.11x 2026-11-09 05:07 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $345 $1,073 3.11x 2026-11-09 05:07 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $345 $1,073 3.11x 2026-11-09 05:07 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $341 $1,068 3.14x 2026-11-10 17:40 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [KaelenCross](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/KaelenCross) $341 $1,068 3.14x 2026-11-10 17:40 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [Mauro Icardi](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mauro%20Icardi) $351 $876 2.49x 2026-11-03 11:36 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $351 $876 2.49x 2026-11-03 11:36 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=new-knives-joker) [★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $345 $468 1.36x 2026-11-11 16:13 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $343 $861 2.51x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $343 $470 1.37x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) [Headshot](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Headshot) $345 $319 0.92x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $343 $148 0.43x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $343 $329 0.96x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $343 $333 0.97x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $343 $46.01 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Stained (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $343 $148 0.43x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) [Headshot](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Headshot) $343 $333 0.97x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,085 (3.09x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.58 on average: an expected loss of $8.42 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt