--- title: "NEW KNIVES case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "NEW KNIVES ($160.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 26 items with odds, observed 81.38% over 509 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [NEW KNIVES](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · NEW KNIVES A case on Key-Drop (WEAPON CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives?window=all) Price · $160.00 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $140.01 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.38% · 509 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 26.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 36 openings · below min 7 days · 79.01% ±6.94 390 openings 30 days · 81.38% ±6.08 509 openings since tracking started · 81.38% ±6.08 509 openings 56.5% 79.8% 103.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.54% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.30% – 87.46%, 509 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives?window=24h) | 36 | 79.76% ±22.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives?window=7d) | 390 | 79.01% ±6.94 | −2.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives) | 509 | 81.38% ±6.08 | −2.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/new-knives?window=all) | 509 | 81.38% ±6.08 | −2.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 509 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 719 | $1,054 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 592 | $861 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 478 | $697 | 1.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 183 | $596 | 2.3% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 158 | $513 | 2.3% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 146 | $476 | 2.3% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145 | $470 | 2.3% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.28× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $333 | 5.0% | 16 | 10.7 | 1.50× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $329 | 5.0% | 9 | 10.8 | 0.83× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $306 | 5.0% | 14 | 11.6 | 1.21× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $247 | 5.0% | 15 | 14.4 | 1.04× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $245 | 5.0% | 14 | 14.5 | 0.97× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $192 | 4.8% | 13 | 17.7 | 0.74× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $178 | 4.8% | 10 | 19.1 | 0.52× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $168 | 4.8% | 18 | 20.2 | 0.89× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $168 | 4.8% | 19 | 20.2 | 0.94× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $150 | 5.6% | 32 | 26.5 | 1.21× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $148 | 5.5% | 16 | 26.6 | 0.60× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $148 | 5.5% | 28 | 26.7 | 1.05× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $116 | 4.9% | 37 | 30.1 | 1.23× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $92.29 | 4.4% | 35 | 33.7 | 1.04× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $83.10 | 4.1% | 32 | 35.6 | 0.90× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $69.67 | 3.8% | 29 | 38.8 | 0.75× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $59.13 | 3.5% | 52 | 42.1 | 1.23× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $49.03 | 3.2% | 60 | 46.3 | 1.30× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $46.01 | 3.1% | 53 | 47.8 | 1.11× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/new-knives`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) [EscopetillasJhonson](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EscopetillasJhonson) $160 $530 3.32x 2026-11-05 03:18 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) [NOWAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NOWAY) $160 $511 3.20x 2026-11-06 16:16 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $160 $511 3.20x 2026-11-06 15:52 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=new-knives) [★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [\_JP1.\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/_JP1._) $160 $83.10 0.52x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [ZevkLast\`iN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZevkLast%60iN) $160 $149 0.93x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $160 $58.83 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $160 $89.39 0.56x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Stained (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-stained-well-worn) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $160 $143 0.89x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Stained (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-stained-well-worn) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $160 $143 0.89x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $160 $46.10 0.29x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $160 $179 1.12x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $160 $80.48 0.50x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $160 $49.85 0.31x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $160 | 87.50% | 26 | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $160 | 87.50% | 26 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $160 | 87.44% | 26 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $160 | 87.42% | 26 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $160 | 87.59% | 26 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $160 | 87.62% | 26 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $160 | 87.60% | 26 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $160 | 87.40% | 26 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $160 | 87.39% | 26 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $160 | 87.34% | 26 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $160 | 87.57% | 26 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $160 | 87.94% | 26 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $160 | 87.61% | 26 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $160 | 87.62% | 26 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $160 | 87.55% | 26 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $160 | 87.40% | 26 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $160 | 87.44% | 26 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $160 | 87.66% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 30.7% epic 6.3% legendary 0.5% gold 48.3% Immortal 14.2% best hit $530 (3.32x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt