---
title: "NEWSLETTER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "NEWSLETTER ($0.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/newsletter
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [NEWSLETTER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/newsletter)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · NEWSLETTER

A case on Key-Drop (COMMUNITY CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/newsletter?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/newsletter?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/newsletter) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/newsletter?window=all)

Price · $0.00

Advertised RTP · —

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · — · needs odds

Tail share · — · needs odds

Below price · — · needs odds

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/newsletter?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/newsletter?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/newsletter) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/newsletter?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $217 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $110 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 50,000 | $53.51 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $28.74 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $10.87 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $7.44 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $6.32 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $2.10 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $1.81 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1.00 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.59 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Froggles sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-froggles) | 1 in 100 | $0.56 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.45 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.44 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.33 | 10.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.27 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.18 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Nexus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.18 | 12.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Boom Trail sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail) | 1 in 22 | $0.17 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.15 | 10.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) | 13.0% | $0.09 | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Dark Chamber (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-dark-chamber-field-tested) | 14.0% | $0.02 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Currents (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-currents-field-tested) | 14.0% | $0.02 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Dizzy (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dizzy-field-tested) | 14.0% | $0.02 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/newsletter`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=newsletter)

[R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-dark-chamber-field-tested) [Fstekin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Fstekin) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-08 15:49 UTC

[MP9 | Nexus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-minimal-wear) [Derek](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Derek) $0 $0.17 0.00x 2026-11-08 15:49 UTC

[XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) [Gamba Rebozada](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gamba%20Rebozada) $0 $0.12 0.00x 2026-11-08 15:49 UTC

[MP9 | Dizzy (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dizzy-field-tested) [Fenap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Fenap) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-08 15:48 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) [Hashtag#DuMau](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hashtag%23DuMau) $0 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-08 15:48 UTC

[Nova | Currents (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-currents-field-tested) [KZNtheking](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/KZNtheking) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-08 15:48 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-dark-chamber-field-tested) [Gato](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gato) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-08 15:48 UTC

[MP9 | Dizzy (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dizzy-field-tested) [愛](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E6%84%9B) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-08 15:48 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-dark-chamber-field-tested) [LauBok78](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LauBok78) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-08 15:48 UTC

[Nova | Currents (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-currents-field-tested) [Ginola](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Ginola) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-08 15:47 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0 | — | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.0% pink 0.0% classified 0.0% restricted 0.0% #8847ff 0.1% violet 9.9% Mythical 0.5% uncommon 1.0% gray 4.5% blue 42.0% #5e98d9 14.0% #b0c3d9 28.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** Every case pays out less than it costs on average; the rare items carry most of the advertised value and most openings return a fraction of the price. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt