---
title: "NIGHT CALLS case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "NIGHT CALLS ($237.50) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 41 items with odds, observed 87.66% over 898 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/night-calls
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [NIGHT CALLS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/night-calls)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · NIGHT CALLS

A case on Key-Drop (ANIME CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/night-calls?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/night-calls?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/night-calls) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/night-calls?window=all)

Price · $237.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $207.81 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.66% · 898 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 78.36% ±22.00 116 openings

7 days · 87.72% ±8.79 715 openings

30 days · 87.66% ±7.81 898 openings

since tracking started · 87.66% ±7.81 898 openings

55.5% 78.3% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/night-calls?window=24h) | 116 | 78.36% ±22.0 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/night-calls?window=7d) | 715 | 87.72% ±8.79 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/night-calls) | 898 | 87.66% ±7.81 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/night-calls?window=all) | 898 | 87.66% ±7.81 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 898 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $15.9K | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $6,939 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 2,500 | $3,631 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,063 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,812 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 833 | $1,232 | 0.7% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.78× |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $1,109 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 625 | $934 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 45 | $744 | 8.0% | 10 | 20.1 | 0.50× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 37 | $619 | 8.0% | 23 | 24.2 | 0.95× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 46 | $499 | 5.2% | 21 | 19.5 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $464 | 0.7% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $409 | 5.2% | 38 | 23.8 | 1.60× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 37 | $399 | 5.2% | 32 | 24.4 | 1.31× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 36 | $393 | 5.2% | 35 | 24.8 | 1.41× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 15.6% | $273 | 20.5% | 46 | 140.3 | 0.33× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 27 | $237 | 4.2% | 102 | 33.2 | 3.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $214 | 3.8% | 27 | 33.2 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $209 | 1.2% | 8 | 10.4 | 0.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 85 | $207 | 1.2% | 7 | 10.5 | 0.67× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $192 | 3.6% | 29 | 34.7 | 0.84× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 24 | $158 | 3.2% | 37 | 37.4 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $147 | 0.8% | 8 | 10.2 | 0.78× |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $146 | 1.5% | 16 | 19.2 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $145 | 1.5% | 12 | 19.5 | 0.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $108 | 0.9% | 12 | 15.8 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $104 | 0.9% | 13 | 16.5 | 0.79× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $89.67 | 0.9% | 12 | 17.8 | 0.67× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $89.39 | 2.3% | 49 | 47.1 | 1.04× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $82.70 | 2.2% | 50 | 48.7 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $81.30 | 0.4% | 7 | 9.0 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $71.83 | 2.0% | 42 | 51.5 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $70.80 | 0.5% | 12 | 14.3 | 0.84× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $58.10 | 0.4% | 16 | 14.3 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $54.24 | 0.6% | 19 | 20.7 | 0.92× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $54.19 | 1.0% | 18 | 35.9 | 0.50× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $53.21 | 0.6% | 16 | 21.2 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $53.10 | 0.5% | 5 | 16.3 | 0.31× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $52.50 | 0.5% | 9 | 16.5 | 0.54× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $49.30 | 0.8% | 25 | 29.9 | 0.84× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $49.23 | 0.8% | 20 | 28.6 | 0.70× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/night-calls`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [-melo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/-melo) $238 $3,133 13.19x 2026-11-06 17:43 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $238 $1,232 5.19x 2026-11-10 16:00 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $238 $1,206 5.08x 2026-11-09 21:37 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $238 $1,205 5.07x 2026-11-10 15:30 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $238 $1,125 4.74x 2026-11-08 16:58 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $238 $950 4.00x 2026-11-06 14:12 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $238 $753 3.17x 2026-11-05 06:15 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $238 $753 3.17x 2026-11-06 23:41 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [PYREXX-](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PYREXX-) $238 $753 3.17x 2026-11-05 21:14 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [PYREXX-](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PYREXX-) $238 $753 3.17x 2026-11-05 21:14 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=night-calls)

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Mr.BOOM](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mr.BOOM) $238 $237 1.00x 2026-11-11 03:22 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $238 $54.24 0.23x 2026-11-11 03:21 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) Hidden $238 $273 1.15x 2026-11-11 03:21 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) Hidden $238 $54.19 0.23x 2026-11-11 03:21 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Mr.BOOM](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mr.BOOM) $238 $237 1.00x 2026-11-11 03:21 UTC

[AWP | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream) [fer\_otake](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/fer_otake) $238 $58.72 0.25x 2026-11-11 02:43 UTC

[AWP | CMYK weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk) [dq](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dq) $238 $146 0.61x 2026-11-11 00:10 UTC

[AWP | CMYK (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-well-worn) [dq](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dq) $238 $146 0.62x 2026-11-11 00:09 UTC

[UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-minimal-wear) Hidden $238 $89.39 0.38x 2026-11-11 00:09 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $238 $54.24 0.23x 2026-11-11 00:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $238 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $238 | 87.79% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $238 | 87.35% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $238 | 87.68% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $238 | 87.39% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $238 | 87.61% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $238 | 87.72% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $238 | 87.44% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $238 | 87.65% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $238 | 87.59% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $238 | 87.82% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $238 | 87.57% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $238 | 87.67% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $238 | 87.84% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $238 | 87.38% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $238 | 87.87% | 41 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $238 | 87.70% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 48.8% legendary 2.8% restricted 7.9% gold 3.7% rare 3.9% classified 4.7% red 20.2% blue 5.4% Ancient 2.6% best hit $3,133 (13.19x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt