--- title: "NO POISON JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "NO POISON JOKER ($501.13) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 80.35% over 144 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/no-poison-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T23:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [NO POISON JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/no-poison-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · NO POISON JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/no-poison-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/no-poison-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/no-poison-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/no-poison-joker?window=all) Price · $501.13 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 80.35% · 144 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 71 openings · below min 7 days · 144 openings · below min 30 days · 144 openings · below min since tracking started · 144 openings · below min 36.0% 69.5% 103.0% **Small sample.** 144 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/no-poison-joker?window=24h) | 71 | 65.91% ±29.4 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/no-poison-joker?window=7d) | 144 | 80.35% ±22.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/no-poison-joker) | 144 | 80.35% ±22.1 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/no-poison-joker?window=all) | 144 | 80.35% ±22.1 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [MoonV2](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MoonV2) $501 $2,826 5.64x 2026-11-05 19:03 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [MoonV2](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MoonV2) $501 $2,826 5.64x 2026-11-05 18:59 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [OjczymLeny](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OjczymLeny) $500 $2,789 5.58x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $500 $2,789 5.58x 2026-11-10 06:56 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [OjczymLeny](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OjczymLeny) $495 $2,785 5.63x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $500 $2,038 4.08x 2026-11-07 18:57 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $495 $1,976 3.99x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $500 $1,611 3.22x 2026-11-10 06:52 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $495 $1,587 3.21x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $498 $1,587 3.18x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=no-poison-joker) [UMP-45 | Houndstooth (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-houndstooth-factory-new) [Cuka Puda ☭](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Cuka%20Puda%20%E2%98%AD) $500 $6.06 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC [AWP | CMYK weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk) [AxiaTis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AxiaTis) $500 $129 0.26x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $495 $51.31 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · gold · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $495 $258 0.52x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC [Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-minimal-wear) Hidden $495 $35.68 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC [AWP | CMYK (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-field-tested) [AxiaTis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AxiaTis) $495 $145 0.29x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC [MP7 | Abyssal Apparition weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition) [AxiaTis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AxiaTis) $500 $8.98 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:07 UTC [MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-factory-new) [AxiaTis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AxiaTis) $495 $15.43 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · gold · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $495 $258 0.52x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $495 $634 1.28x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,826 (5.64x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 80.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $80.35 on average: an expected loss of $19.65 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt