--- title: "NOPE ROPE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "NOPE ROPE ($0.80) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 8 items with odds, observed 80.82% over 21K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/nope-rope rendered: 2026-11-11T13:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [NOPE ROPE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/nope-rope) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · NOPE ROPE A case on Key-Drop (VENOM VAULT), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/nope-rope?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/nope-rope?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/nope-rope) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/nope-rope?window=all) Price · $0.80 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.70 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.82% · 21K openings, odds method Variance · 6.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 60.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 39.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 77.93% ±13.15 1,556 openings 7 days · 81.34% ±4.00 17K openings 30 days · 80.82% ±3.61 21K openings since tracking started · 80.82% ±3.61 21K openings 64.0% 77.8% 91.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.29% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (77.21% – 84.43%, 21,041 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/nope-rope?window=24h) | 1,556 | 77.93% ±13.2 | −1.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/nope-rope?window=7d) | 17K | 81.34% ±4.00 | −3.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/nope-rope) | 21K | 80.82% ±3.61 | −3.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/nope-rope?window=all) | 21K | 80.82% ±3.61 | −3.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.1K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 10,000 | $155 | 2.2% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $54.24 | 3.1% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× | | [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $31.79 | 2.3% | 1 | 10.5 | 0.09× | | [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $8.40 | 4.8% | 61 | 84.3 | 0.72× | | [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $4.09 | 2.9% | 95 | 105.4 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 59.3% | $0.85 | 71.9% | 10,597 | 12484.0 | 0.85× | | [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 10.4% | $0.63 | 9.4% | 3,209 | 2199.7 | 1.46× | | [MAG-7 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) | 29.3% | $0.08 | 3.3% | 7,097 | 6175.6 | 1.15× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/nope-rope`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $0.80 $161 201.0x 2026-11-04 16:06 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) [Lib](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Lib) $0.80 $54.62 68.27x 2026-11-04 15:37 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) [Lib](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Lib) $0.80 $54.62 68.27x 2026-11-04 15:35 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $0.80 $54.57 68.21x 2026-11-08 10:45 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $0.80 $54.56 68.20x 2026-11-03 22:45 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $0.80 $54.56 68.20x 2026-11-03 17:23 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) [2A MAROLINHA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/2A%20MAROLINHA) $0.80 $54.24 67.80x 2026-11-09 18:59 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) [2A MAROLINHA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/2A%20MAROLINHA) $0.80 $53.42 66.77x 2026-11-09 18:59 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $0.80 $53.06 66.33x 2026-11-05 12:34 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $0.80 $51.16 63.95x 2026-11-06 21:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=nope-rope) [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [biraktigin gibiyim](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/biraktigin%20gibiyim) $0.80 $0.85 1.06x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [Nidzaaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Nidzaaa) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [baran - TimingisALL skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/baran%20-%20TimingisALL%20skins.army) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [baran - TimingisALL skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/baran%20-%20TimingisALL%20skins.army) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) Hidden $0.80 $0.88 1.10x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) Hidden $0.80 $0.88 1.10x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [Muni9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Muni9) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [kinguare](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kinguare) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [kinguare](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kinguare) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.80 | 87.50% | 8 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.80 | 86.80% | 8 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.80 | 87.74% | 8 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.80 | 87.95% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.80 | 87.30% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.80 | 88.10% | 8 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.80 | 87.52% | 8 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.80 | 87.13% | 8 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.80 | 87.06% | 8 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.80 | 86.71% | 8 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.80 | 87.87% | 8 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.80 | 88.50% | 8 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.80 | 86.91% | 8 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.80 | 86.71% | 8 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.80 | 86.85% | 8 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.80 | 86.77% | 8 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.80 | 86.67% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% rare 0.1% classified 0.4% pink 0.5% violet 59.3% gray 10.4% light blue 29.3% best hit $161 (201.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt